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decision:mlm-and-seminars

How Much Money Do MLM Participants Actually Make?

Every factual sentence carries assertions checked against the recorded evidence: references must resolve, figures and quotations must be in the cited passage, arithmetic must reproduce, and an independent reviewer must approve the wording. Automated validation says whether the narration is ready for human editorial review; it does not establish truth.

Validation
passed (revision 3)
Runtime
1698 words, about 11.9 min at 150 wpm
Assertions
56 of 56 verified
Issues
0 blocking, 0 warnings
Storyboard
42 scenes, 12:11 (ok)
Model
claude-fable-5-1

Open a sentence to see its assertions, their status and the passages behind them. Sentences without a marker make no factual claim.

Hook

Somewhere in your messages there is probably a pitch like this. A friend you have not heard from in years has started a business, and she would love to have you on her team: you earn from what you sell, and from everyone you bring in after you.
The recruiters have a word for that second part: one trainer, Frazer Brookes, promises to show you how to "finally create the leverage that you need inside of your network marketing business". s03 verified

verified s03.a Network-marketing trainer Frazer Brookes promises to show viewers how to "finally create the leverage that you need inside of your network marketing business".

supported (approved): no direct support, 3 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Give Me 19 Minutes, and You’ll Become a Recruiting Machine how you can be a recruiting machine and finally create the leverage that you need inside of your network marketing business
In a study published in 2018, AARP asked 601 Americans who had actually done this how it went, and 47 percent said they lost money. s04 verified

verified s04.a AARP's survey, published in 2018, covered 601 current and former MLM participants, and 47% of them reported losing money.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
Only 25 percent said they made any profit at all. s05 verified

verified s05.a 25% of the surveyed MLM participants reported making a profit.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
So where does the money go, and why does leverage that sounds so good on paper show up in almost nobody's bank account?

Setup

This video is about one question: how much money do people in multi-level marketing actually make?
To answer it we have the companies' own numbers first: 70 income disclosure statements, read closely by Federal Trade Commission staff. s08 verified

verified s08.a FTC staff analysed 70 publicly available MLM income disclosure statements.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 734-L752Expenses None of the 70 income disclosure statements reviewed provides income figures that take into None of the 70 income disclosure account all expenses. Twenty of the disclosures have statements provides income figures that no express st…
Then a nationally representative survey of 601 participants by AARP. s68 verified

info needs-human (review): 'Nationally representative' rests on the verdict's canonical claim; the cited passages (L135-L139, L376-L392) give the 601 and the percentages but not the sampling. The methods section at L105-L109 (GfK KnowledgePanel, probability-based, generalisable to the US population) establishes it and is in the committed source, but no verdict cites it. The same wording is in s27 and s60. Recording that passage through record-sources would close the gap; no script change.

verified s68.a AARP surveyed a nationally representative probability sample of 601 current and former MLM participants.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
And an analysis of 30 companies by Jon Taylor, an independent analyst who argues against the industry. s69 verified

verified s69.a Jon Taylor analysed the compensation plans and earnings data of 30 MLMs.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5), 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 50%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 870-L877Based on my analysis of their compensation plans, using the four causal and defining characteristics ("red flags")10 as a checklist, ALL (100%) of the 30 MLMs included in this analysis are recruitment driven and top-weighted. This means tha…
First, the promise, in the recruiters' own words: one coach, Darin Kidd, tells his audience that once the team grows, "it starts to compound", like a snowball; Frazer Brookes says the person you bring in "might recruit 10 people themselves and have an organization of a thousand people". s09 verified

verified s09.a Network-marketing coach Darin Kidd tells his audience that a growing team means "it starts to compound" and likens it to a snowball.

supported (approved): no direct support, 3 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Network Marketing Recruiting: How I Recruited 10 People in 10 Days you're going to find that it starts to compound and and it grows even faster it's like a snowball

verified s09.b Frazer Brookes says the person you bring in "might recruit 10 people themselves and have an organization of a thousand people".

supported (approved): no direct support, 3 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Network Marketing Recruiting – How To Recruit 10 People In 10 Days they might recruit 10 people themselves and have an organization of a thousand people
Another trainer, Eric Worre, puts the whole idea in one line: it would be "better to have a smaller percentage of 100 people than 100 of yourself". s10 verified

verified s10.a Network-marketing trainer Eric Worre says it is "better to have a smaller percentage of 100 people than 100 of yourself".

supported (approved): no direct support, 3 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement 4 Things Successful Network Marketing Professionals Do it'd be better to have a smaller percentage of 100 people than 100 of yourself right
That is the pitch: income from the efforts of other people.
The critics have their own one-liner; in a clip John Oliver's show played, a former Herbalife distributor puts it this way: "You make money from signing people up." s12 verified

verified s12.a In a clip played in John Oliver's MLM segment, a former Herbalife distributor says "You make money from signing people up."

supported (approved): no direct support, 1 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Multilevel Marketing: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) You make a little, not much. Not enough to pay the bills that are wrecking up. You make money from signing people up.
Even the FTC's own Consumer Advice page says, flatly, that "Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money." s13 verified

verified s13.a The FTC's Consumer Advice page states that "Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money."

supported (approved): no direct support, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Multi-Level Marketing Businesses and Pyramid Schemes Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money. Some of them lose money.
Two confident stories, so let us see which one the numbers tell. s14 verified

warning figure-in-non-factual (deterministic): a transitional sentence carries a figure; the reviewer must confirm it is not a representative outcome

Investigation

Start with the companies, because some of them publish an income disclosure statement, and FTC staff collected 70 of them, from household names to small firms. s15 verified

verified s15.a FTC staff analysed 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a range of MLMs, from large and well-known companies to smaller ones.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 734-L752Expenses None of the 70 income disclosure statements reviewed provides income figures that take into None of the 70 income disclosure account all expenses. Twenty of the disclosures have statements provides income figures that no express st…
Once FTC staff worked through the fine print, the statements with enough data to tell showed most participants received $1,000 or less in a year: under $84 a month. s16 verified

verified s16.a For the disclosures with enough data for FTC staff to calculate it, most participants had $1,000 or less in reported income for the year, which is less than $84 per month.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 60%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 1481-L1498Considering the data from all 27 income Considering the data from all 27 income disclosures that expressly provide the figure or the disclosures that expressly provide the underlying data necessary to calculate the figure, figure or the und…
In at least 17 of the 70 companies, most participants made nothing at all. s17 verified

verified s17.a In at least 17 of the 70 MLMs, most participants did not make any money.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 60%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 1481-L1498Considering the data from all 27 income Considering the data from all 27 income disclosures that expressly provide the figure or the disclosures that expressly provide the underlying data necessary to calculate the figure, figure or the und…
And that is the generous reading, because of three things buried in the fine print. s18 verified

warning figure-in-non-factual (deterministic): a transitional sentence carries a figure; the reviewer must confirm it is not a representative outcome

First, who gets counted: of the 70 statements, 29 leave out participants who earned no commission, and another 24 leave out anyone the company has labelled inactive. s19 verified

verified s19.a Of the 70 disclosures, 29 exclude from their income distribution participants who earned no commissions, and another 24 exclude participants the MLM deems inactive.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 634-L652Excludes Some Participants Who Received Little or No Income Most of the income disclosure statements reviewed do not depict the distribution of income across all participants, but instead present a distribution that excludes certain groups …
  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
What happens to an average when you remove the zeros before you take it?
Second, what gets counted: not one of the 70 statements reports income with expenses taken out in full, and 20 of them never say whether expenses were taken out at all. s21 verified

verified s21.a None of the 70 income disclosure statements provides income figures that take expenses into account in full, and 20 of them have no express statement about whether their figures account for expenses.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 734-L752Expenses None of the 70 income disclosure statements reviewed provides income figures that take into None of the 70 income disclosure account all expenses. Twenty of the disclosures have statements provides income figures that no express st…
So the dollar figures are what the company paid out, before most or all of whatever the participant spent to take part. s22 verified

verified s22.a The disclosed income figures are payments from the MLM and do not account for the expenses participants incurred.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 734-L752Expenses None of the 70 income disclosure statements reviewed provides income figures that take into None of the 70 income disclosure account all expenses. Twenty of the disclosures have statements provides income figures that no express st…
Third, how it is presented: 44 of the 70 break the numbers out only by rank, and in those tables, nearly without exception, the vast majority of participants sit in the two or three lowest ranks. s23 verified

info missing-qualification (review): The FTC sentence reads 'the vast majority of participants are in one of the two or three lowest ranks ... or are omitted from the table entirely'. The narration drops the 'or are omitted' branch, so for the tables that leave non-earners out the 'vast majority' includes people who are not in the table at all. s19 states the omissions separately, so the viewer hears both; the figure does not mislead.

verified s23.a 44 of the 70 disclosures break out income only by rank, and in nearly each of them the vast majority of participants are in one of the two or three lowest ranks.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: In nearly every rank-based disclosure the vast majority of participants sit in the two or three lowest ranks (one example: 92.37% in the bottom rank averaging $41.69, top ranks fractions of a percent), confirming most are structurally at the bottom; the report does not test the exponential-exhaustion arithmetic. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a …

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 801-L866Most of the income disclosure Most--44 of the 70 disclosures--break out this statements reviewed break out information only by rank. Staff found that in nearly information about income in a way that every one of these income disclosure stat…
One table the FTC excerpted shows the shape: 92.37 percent of participants in the bottom row, with average earnings of $41.69. s24 verified

verified s24.a In one income disclosure table excerpted by the FTC, 92.37% of participants were in the lowest cohort, with average earnings of $41.69.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: Downline-based commissions and rank bonuses exist, but the rank tables show over 90% of participants in the lowest cohort averaging under $100 while six-figure incomes belong to hundredths of a percent; the leverage is real only for a tiny fraction. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866Figure 6: Excerpted Data from an Income Disclosure Table Rank % of Average Level 1 Participants Earnings Level 2 Level 3 92.37% $41.69 Level 4 Level 5 3.63% $844.43 Level 6 Level 7 1.33% $2,414.11 Level 8 Level 9 2.16% $4,938.78 Level 10 0.…
The top row averages just over $1,018,350, and holds fewer than 0.01 percent of participants; as the FTC puts it, half the rows in that table describe half a percent of the people. s25 verified

verified s25.a In that table the top cohort, fewer than 0.01% of participants, had average earnings of $1,018,350.20.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: Downline-based commissions and rank bonuses exist, but the rank tables show over 90% of participants in the lowest cohort averaging under $100 while six-figure incomes belong to hundredths of a percent; the leverage is real only for a tiny fraction. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866Figure 6: Excerpted Data from an Income Disclosure Table Rank % of Average Level 1 Participants Earnings Level 2 Level 3 92.37% $41.69 Level 4 Level 5 3.63% $844.43 Level 6 Level 7 1.33% $2,414.11 Level 8 Level 9 2.16% $4,938.78 Level 10 0.…

verified s25.b Half of the rows in that table pertain to half a percent of participants.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: Downline-based commissions and rank bonuses exist, but the rank tables show over 90% of participants in the lowest cohort averaging under $100 while six-figure incomes belong to hundredths of a percent; the leverage is real only for a tiny fraction. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866Figure 6: Excerpted Data from an Income Disclosure Table Rank % of Average Level 1 Participants Earnings Level 2 Level 3 92.37% $41.69 Level 4 Level 5 3.63% $844.43 Level 6 Level 7 1.33% $2,414.11 Level 8 Level 9 2.16% $4,938.78 Level 10 0.…
Disclosures count what companies paid, not whether anyone came out ahead; for that you have to ask the people.
AARP did, in a study published in 2018, using a probability-based national panel, the kind of sample that lets you generalise to the whole country. s27 verified

verified s27.a AARP's survey, published in 2018, used a nationally representative probability sample of current and former MLM participants.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
Among the 601 people it reached, 47 percent said they lost money, 27 percent said they broke even, and the rest, a quarter, said they made a profit, counting their entire time in the business. s28 verified

verified s28.a Of 601 current and former MLM participants, 47% reported losing money, 27% reported breaking even and 25% reported making a profit over the entire time they worked for the MLM.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
Profit, for most of that quarter, was small, and so were most of the losses: on both sides of the ledger the commonest outcome was under $5,000. s29 verified

verified s29.a Of the 601 participants, 14% made less than $5,000 in profit (of the 25% who profited) and 41% lost less than $5,000 (of the 47% who lost money).

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
Only three people in the whole sample reported profits of $100,000 or more, and one of them had founded the company. s30 verified

verified s30.a Only three individuals, half of one percent of the sample, reported profits of $100,000 or more; one of them reported founding the organization.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
These are people's own accounts of what they put in and took out, which is a limit; they are also the only figures so far that measure profit or loss rather than payout. s65 verified

verified s65.b The AARP profit and loss figures are self-reported by participants.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…

verified s65.c The AARP figures measure profit or loss (total investment against total income), unlike the disclosures, which report payments from the MLM before expenses.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (2 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 734-L752Expenses None of the 70 income disclosure statements reviewed provides income figures that take into None of the 70 income disclosure account all expenses. Twenty of the disclosures have statements provides income figures that no express st…
So most people lose or break even, and the few who profit mostly profit a little. The pitch said recruiting would compound, so why doesn't it?
The FTC describes how the pay plans typically work: commissions for hitting benchmarks such as buying a set amount of product, getting others to buy it, or recruiting people who then buy it; selling to an outside customer at a markup is mentioned as a source of income "in some cases". s33 verified

verified s33.a The FTC report says MLMs often offer commissions for meeting benchmarks such as purchasing a set amount of product, inducing others to purchase it, or recruiting participants who make such purchases, with retail income from selling to other consumers "in some cases".

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 30%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 201-L205MLMs often offer commissions, bonuses, or other payments to participants (together "commissions") for meeting specific benchmarks, such as purchasing or inducing others to purchase a certain amount of products from the MLM within a certain …
Taylor went further: he read the compensation plans of the 30 companies with published earnings data, and of more than 350 in all, and concluded that each of them pays primarily for recruiting a large downline rather than for retailing product, with most of the payout going to the highest levels. s34 verified

verified s34.a Taylor's analysis of the compensation plans of the 30 MLMs with earnings data, and of over 350 MLMs in total, concluded that each is recruitment-driven and top-weighted: rewards are paid primarily for recruiting a large downline, not for retailing products, and most of the money goes to participants at the highest levels.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5), 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 50%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 870-L877Based on my analysis of their compensation plans, using the four causal and defining characteristics ("red flags")10 as a checklist, ALL (100%) of the 30 MLMs included in this analysis are recruitment driven and top-weighted. This means tha…
That is one analyst's reading of the plans; the FTC's report describes the same structure but does not measure how much income actually comes from downlines versus retail customers. s35 verified

verified s35.a The FTC report describes the structure of MLM pay but does not measure the split between downline income and retail income.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 30%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 201-L205MLMs often offer commissions, bonuses, or other payments to participants (together "commissions") for meeting specific benchmarks, such as purchasing or inducing others to purchase a certain amount of products from the MLM within a certain …
The recruiters reject that framing; the same trainer, Eric Worre, insists that "you don't get paid for the act of building the team you only get paid when sales happen to a customer". s36 verified

info overgeneralization (review): 'The recruiters reject that framing' presents one trainer's line as the position of recruiters in general; the evidence is a single Eric Worre video. The sentence immediately narrows to 'the same trainer', so the viewer hears the source, but the opening clause is broader than it.

verified s36.a A prominent network-marketing trainer denies that income comes from recruiting: "you don't get paid for the act of building the team you only get paid when sales happen to a customer".

supported (approved): no direct support, 1 contradicting, 1 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement 4 Things Successful Network Marketing Professionals Do you don't get paid for the act of building the team you only get paid when sales happen to a customer
Both can be true at once, because in the plans the FTC describes, the "customer" can be the recruit, buying a set amount of product to qualify, and the plans pay commissions on those purchases. s37 verified

verified s37.a In the pay plans the FTC describes, commissions can be paid for purchases by recruited participants who buy a set amount of product.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 30%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 201-L205MLMs often offer commissions, bonuses, or other payments to participants (together "commissions") for meeting specific benchmarks, such as purchasing or inducing others to purchase a certain amount of products from the MLM within a certain …
Which brings us back to leverage: if income flows up from a downline, somebody has to be the downline.
In that rank table, over 90 percent of participants were in a cohort averaging under $100. s39 verified

verified s39.a In the excerpted rank table, over 90% of participants were in a cohort with average reported income of less than $100.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: Downline-based commissions and rank bonuses exist, but the rank tables show over 90% of participants in the lowest cohort averaging under $100 while six-figure incomes belong to hundredths of a percent; the leverage is real only for a tiny fraction. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866Figure 6: Excerpted Data from an Income Disclosure Table Rank % of Average Level 1 Participants Earnings Level 2 Level 3 92.37% $41.69 Level 4 Level 5 3.63% $844.43 Level 6 Level 7 1.33% $2,414.11 Level 8 Level 9 2.16% $4,938.78 Level 10 0.…
Taylor's own summary of the pitch says the quiet part: the appeal is "time freedom or leveraged income", a flow from the efforts of others, and under these pay plans getting it depends on recruiting a downline more than on selling the product. s40 verified

verified s40.a Taylor describes the MLM appeal of "time freedom or leveraged income" from the efforts of others and says that, because of MLM compensation systems, it requires success at recruiting a downline more than selling the products directly.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Taylor, The Case against MLM: Taylor describes the 'leveraged income' pitch and agrees the pay plans route income from a downline, but his data show only about one in 238 participants profit at all and roughly one in 25,000 get the touted residual income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies Taylor, The Case against MLM partly 45%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 2199-L2211MLM promoters claim that MLM offers not only financial independence with minimal The motivation of most MLM is the investment, but a level playing field in which opportunity to make large amounts of income anyone can participate, regardless…
His own estimate is blunter: across those companies, after subtracting required purchases and modest expenses, he puts the share losing money at 99.6 percent, about one in 238 profiting. s41 verified

info missing-qualification (review): 'After subtracting required purchases and modest expenses' paraphrases Taylor's footnote 44, which assumes 'all expenses (including incentivized purchases and minimum operating expenses)'. The cited passage itself says only 'after subtracting expenses'. 'Required' slightly hardens 'incentivized'; the 99.6% and one in 238 are exact. s47's 'once required purchases are counted as a cost' has the same wording.

verified s41.a Across the MLMs he analysed, after subtracting required purchases and modest expenses, Taylor calculates that an average of 99.6% of participants lost money and about one in 238 profited.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.55).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 55%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790Observation from Appendix 7A: In every case, using the analytical framework described above, the loss rate for all of these MLMs ranged from 99.12% to 99.97%, with an average of 99.6% of participants losing money. On average, one in 238 act…
That number depends on his assumptions about what participants had to spend, how many dropped out and how many were ever counted, which he states; it is an estimate built on the companies' tables, not a measurement of anyone's bank account. s42 verified

verified s42.a Taylor's loss rate is calculated from company earnings reports under assumptions he states about participants' expenses, retention and the share of participants counted.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.55).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 55%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790Observation from Appendix 7A: In every case, using the analytical framework described above, the loss rate for all of these MLMs ranged from 99.12% to 99.97%, with an average of 99.6% of participants losing money. On average, one in 238 act…
Critics like to finish with arithmetic; in John Oliver's version, if each recruit brings in a handful more, "you could only do that 13 cycles and you would exceed the population of the earth." s43 verified

verified s43.a John Oliver's segment says that with each level recruiting more, "you could only do that 13 cycles and you would exceed the population of the earth."

supported (approved): no direct support, 3 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Multilevel Marketing: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) you could only do that 13 cycles and you would exceed the population of the earth.
None of the studies here tests that arithmetic directly; what they show is the shape it predicts. s44 verified

verified s44.a Neither the FTC report nor Taylor tests the population-exhaustion arithmetic.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: In nearly every rank-based disclosure the vast majority of participants sit in the two or three lowest ranks (one example: 92.37% in the bottom rank averaging $41.69, top ranks fractions of a percent), confirming most are structurally at the bottom; the report does not test the exponential-exhaustion arithmetic. Taylor, The Case against MLM: Taylor says recru…

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 801-L866Most of the income disclosure Most--44 of the 70 disclosures--break out this statements reviewed break out information only by rank. Staff found that in nearly information about income in a way that every one of these income disclosure stat…
  • qualifies Taylor, The Case against MLM partly 40%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1328-L1335or was deriving an income that "continue[d] The inevitable result of such pyramid to climb to replace my full professional schemes is that eventually recruitment will dry salary". up as the market becomes saturated or law enforcement steps …
Taylor writes of pyramid schemes, a class in which he places MLMs, that recruitment eventually dries up as the market saturates, leaving the vast majority at the bottom. s66 verified

verified s66.a Taylor writes of pyramid schemes, a class in which he places MLMs, that recruitment eventually dries up as the market becomes saturated and that the vast majority of participants are then left in a losing position at the bottom.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Taylor, The Case against MLM: Taylor says recruitment inevitably dries up as the market saturates and the vast majority of participants are then guaranteed to be at the bottom; he illustrates with an 8-ball pyramid reaching 8,191 people in 10 cycles but does not do the population-exhaustion arithmetic. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies Taylor, The Case against MLM partly 40%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1328-L1335or was deriving an income that "continue[d] The inevitable result of such pyramid to climb to replace my full professional schemes is that eventually recruitment will dry salary". up as the market becomes saturated or law enforcement steps …
And among the former participants AARP surveyed, 29 percent said they left because the commission structure mostly benefited those at the top, and 25 percent because the market was saturated. s67 verified

verified s67.a Among former participants in the AARP survey, 29% left because the commission structure mostly benefited those at the top and 25% because the market was too saturated.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: AARP MLM survey 2018: Among former participants, 29% left because the commission structure mostly benefited those at the top and 25% because the market was saturated with other sellers; self-reported reasons, not a structural test. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies AARP MLM survey 2018 partly 30%, partial AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 463-L467company they initially joined. Among those who were no longer involved in MLMs, the most common reasons for leaving were feeling that it was awkward pitching to friends and relatives (39%), not making what they expected to earn (36%), not l…

Findings

Put the three side by side and they agree on the shape, though they measure different things. s45 verified

warning figure-in-non-factual (deterministic): a transitional sentence carries a figure; the reviewer must confirm it is not a representative outcome

The companies' own statements: most participants received $1,000 or less in a year, before expenses, and most of the tables leave some participants out entirely. s46 verified

info missing-qualification (review): The recap 'most participants received $1,000 or less in a year' drops the scope the FTC gives it: the 33 disclosures with enough data to calculate the share. s16 carries that limit; s46 and s60.b repeat the figure without it, as the FTC's own blog summary does. True and sourced; the limit is stated once, far from the recap.

verified s46.a The disclosures show most participants made $1,000 or less per year, and that may not account for expenses.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 60%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 1481-L1498Considering the data from all 27 income Considering the data from all 27 income disclosures that expressly provide the figure or the disclosures that expressly provide the underlying data necessary to calculate the figure, figure or the und…

verified s46.b Most of the 70 disclosures do not depict the full income distribution: 29 exclude those with no commissions and another 24 exclude participants deemed inactive.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 634-L652Excludes Some Participants Who Received Little or No Income Most of the income disclosure statements reviewed do not depict the distribution of income across all participants, but instead present a distribution that excludes certain groups …
  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
The survey: 47 percent lost, 27 percent broke even, a quarter profited, mostly under $5,000; the analyst: 99.6 percent losing, once required purchases are counted as a cost. s47 verified

verified s47.a In the AARP survey 47% lost money, 27% broke even and 25% made a profit; 14% of participants made less than $5,000.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…

verified s47.b Taylor calculates an average of 99.6% of participants losing money after subtracting required purchases and expenses.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.55).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 55%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790Observation from Appendix 7A: In every case, using the analytical framework described above, the loss rate for all of these MLMs ranged from 99.12% to 99.97%, with an average of 99.6% of participants losing money. On average, one in 238 act…

Qualifications

Now the limits, because they matter: the AARP numbers are self-reported, by current and former participants, and nothing checks them against bank statements. s50 verified

verified s50.a The AARP profit and loss figures are self-reported by current and former MLM participants.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
The FTC's figures are company payouts, not profit, and they cover the 70 companies whose statements were publicly available, which is not the whole industry. s51 verified

verified s51.a The FTC's figures come from 70 publicly available income disclosure statements and report payments before expenses.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 734-L752Expenses None of the 70 income disclosure statements reviewed provides income figures that take into None of the 70 income disclosure account all expenses. Twenty of the disclosures have statements provides income figures that no express st…
Taylor is an independent analyst who argues against the industry, and his 99.6 percent is a calculation under assumptions he states, not a count of real accounts. s52 verified

verified s52.a Taylor's 99.6% loss rate is calculated under stated assumptions from company earnings reports, not counted from participants' accounts.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.55).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 55%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790Observation from Appendix 7A: In every case, using the analytical framework described above, the loss rate for all of these MLMs ranged from 99.12% to 99.97%, with an average of 99.6% of participants losing money. On average, one in 238 act…
The split between recruiting income and retail income has been described in these documents, and argued, but not measured. s53 verified

verified s53.a The FTC report describes the structure of MLM pay but does not measure the split between downline and retail income.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 30%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 201-L205MLMs often offer commissions, bonuses, or other payments to participants (together "commissions") for meeting specific benchmarks, such as purchasing or inducing others to purchase a certain amount of products from the MLM within a certain …
And the population arithmetic is a thought experiment that none of these studies tested; the rank tables show where people end up, not why. s54 verified

verified s54.a Neither the FTC report nor Taylor tests the population-exhaustion arithmetic; the rank tables show that most participants are at the bottom.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: In nearly every rank-based disclosure the vast majority of participants sit in the two or three lowest ranks (one example: 92.37% in the bottom rank averaging $41.69, top ranks fractions of a percent), confirming most are structurally at the bottom; the report does not test the exponential-exhaustion arithmetic. Taylor, The Case against MLM: Taylor says recru…

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 801-L866Most of the income disclosure Most--44 of the 70 disclosures--break out this statements reviewed break out information only by rank. Staff found that in nearly information about income in a way that every one of these income disclosure stat…
  • qualifies Taylor, The Case against MLM partly 40%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1328-L1335or was deriving an income that "continue[d] The inevitable result of such pyramid to climb to replace my full professional schemes is that eventually recruitment will dry salary". up as the market becomes saturated or law enforcement steps …

Implications

So, back to that message from your friend; suppose you say yes.
The survey says the most likely outcome, by a wide margin, is that you lose money or break even: 74 percent of participants did. s56 verified

verified s56.a 74% of the surveyed participants lost money (47%) or broke even (27%).

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

Calculation: 47 + 27 = 74

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
If you do profit, the same survey suggests it will most likely be under $5,000 over your whole time in the business. s57 verified

verified s57.a Of the 25% of surveyed participants who made a profit, the largest group, 14% of participants, made less than $5,000 over their entire time in the MLM.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
And the leverage? It exists, in the plan documents; the rank tables show who it works for.
Before you answer, ask for the income disclosure statement, and then ask three questions of it: who is left out of the table, whether the figures are before expenses, and how many people are in the bottom row. s59 verified

warning figure-in-non-factual (deterministic): a rhetorical sentence carries a figure; the reviewer must confirm it is not a representative outcome

Conclusion

How much money do MLM participants actually make? For most of them, nothing, or less than nothing: in the nationally representative survey, 47 percent lost money and 27 percent broke even, and in the companies' own statements most participants received $1,000 or less in a year before expenses. s60 verified

verified s60.a In AARP's nationally representative survey, 47% of participants lost money and 27% broke even.

supported (approved): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…

verified s60.b The companies' income disclosure statements showed most participants made $1,000 or less per year before expenses.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports FTC MLM report summary right 40%, direct FTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35The FTC staff report documents an analysis of 70 publicly available income disclosure statements from a wide range of MLMs — big and well-known to smaller companies. The report found that these income disclosure statements showed most parti…
  • supports FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 right 60%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 1481-L1498Considering the data from all 27 income Considering the data from all 27 income disclosures that expressly provide the figure or the disclosures that expressly provide the underlying data necessary to calculate the figure, figure or the und…
A quarter made some profit, mostly small, and half of one percent made a lot. s61 verified

verified s61.a 25% of surveyed participants made a profit, 14% of participants making less than $5,000, and half of one percent reported profits of $100,000 or more.

supported (approved): 2 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65).

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392Only a quarter of MLM participants (n=156) made any profit during the entire time they worked for the MLM. Fourteen percent of the 601 MLM participants made less than $5,000, 6% made between $5,000 and $9,999, 3% made between $10,000 and $2…
  • supports AARP MLM survey 2018 right 65%, direct AARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139On the question of making a profit or loss: Nearly half (47%) of MLM participants reported that they lost money. One in four (27%) MLM participants reported that they broke even (made no money). One in four (25%) MLM participants reported m…
The leverage the pitch sells is real for the fraction at the top; in the plans Taylor read, most of the payout goes to the highest levels, and in the FTC's rank tables the vast majority sit at the bottom. s62 verified

verified s62.a In nearly each rank-based disclosure the FTC reviewed, the vast majority of participants are in the two or three lowest ranks.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 3 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: In nearly every rank-based disclosure the vast majority of participants sit in the two or three lowest ranks (one example: 92.37% in the bottom rank averaging $41.69, top ranks fractions of a percent), confirming most are structurally at the bottom; the report does not test the exponential-exhaustion arithmetic. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a …

  • qualifies FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024 partly 50%, direct FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 801-L866Most of the income disclosure Most--44 of the 70 disclosures--break out this statements reviewed break out information only by rank. Staff found that in nearly information about income in a way that every one of these income disclosure stat…

verified s62.b In the plans Taylor analysed, most of the money paid by the company goes to participants at the highest levels.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.5), 1 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: FTC MLM income disclosure report 2024: The report describes MLM pay as commissions for purchasing, inducing others to purchase, or recruiting participants who purchase, with retail resale income only 'in some cases'; it describes the structure but does not measure the split between downline and retail income. Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • supports Taylor, The Case against MLM right 50%, direct Taylor, The Case against MLM, lines 870-L877Based on my analysis of their compensation plans, using the four causal and defining characteristics ("red flags")10 as a checklist, ALL (100%) of the 30 MLMs included in this analysis are recruitment driven and top-weighted. This means tha…
None of that is a verdict on your friend. It is a description of the structure she has joined, written mostly by the companies themselves, and it is worth reading before you join it too.

42 scenes, 12:11 at 150 words per minute including pauses. Narration is copied from the script; every chart value and on-screen citation is checked against a passage.

1. sc01 · 0:00 to 0:05 animation

Somewhere in your messages there is probably a pitch like this.

Visual. A phone on a dark table, screen off. It lights with one message notification; the sender's name and preview are soft-blurred so nothing is legible. Slow push-in. No on-screen text.

Assets. phone-ui (animation: Phone lock-screen animation (generic UI, blurred sender))

2. sc02 · 0:05 to 0:20 diagram

A friend you have not heard from in years has started a business, and she would love to have you on her team: you earn from what you sell, and from everyone you bring in after you.

Visual. The message opens into a chat bubble; from it a simple node diagram grows: a circle labelled YOU, an arrow in from 'what you sell', then a second tier of circles beneath you with arrows flowing up labelled 'what they sell'. The second tier draws in as the narration reaches 'everyone you bring in after you'.

On screen. what you sell / everyone you bring in

Assets. node-tree (component: Node-tree diagram component)

3. sc03 · 0:20 to 0:34 typography

The recruiters have a word for that second part: one trainer, Frazer Brookes, promises to show you how to "finally create the leverage that you need inside of your network marketing business".

Visual. Quote card: the quoted words type on in large serif over the dark field; the word 'leverage' holds and turns amber as the sentence ends. Beneath, small: 'recruiting training video'. No channel name or face.

On screen. "finally create the leverage that you need inside of your network marketing business"

Cite. Network-marketing recruiting video (YouTube)

4. sc04 · 0:34 to 0:51 data-chart

In a study published in 2018, AARP asked 601 Americans who had actually done this how it went, and 47 percent said they lost money. Only 25 percent said they made any profit at all.

Visual. Big-number reveal: '601' counts up in grotesque numerals with 'asked in 2018' beneath. Then a single horizontal bar splits left to right into three segments: 47% lost money (red), 27% broke even (slate), 25% made any profit (muted green). The 47% segment fills first, with the narration; the 25% segment fills last, on 'only 25 percent'.

On screen. 601 current and former participants / 47% lost money / 25% made any profit

lost money47%47percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
broke even27%27percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
made a profit25%25percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participants

5. sc05 · 0:51 to 1:01 typography

So where does the money go, and why does leverage that sounds so good on paper show up in almost nobody's bank account?

Visual. The bar from sc04 shrinks to a thin line at the top; the question types on in two lines: 'Where does the money go?' / 'Why does leverage show up in almost nobody's bank account?'. Amber cursor blinks.

On screen. Where does the money go?

6. sc06 · 1:01 to 1:08 typography

This video is about one question: how much money do people in multi-level marketing actually make?

Visual. Title card: 'How much money do MLM participants actually make?' set large; under it a thin rule and the word 'evidence' in the slate accent.

On screen. How much money do MLM participants actually make?

7. sc07 · 1:08 to 1:28 diagram

To answer it we have the companies' own numbers first: 70 income disclosure statements, read closely by Federal Trade Commission staff. Then a nationally representative survey of 601 participants by AARP. And an analysis of 30 companies by Jon Taylor, an independent analyst who argues against the industry.

Visual. Three cards slide in left to right as each is named: a stack of documents labelled 'income disclosures, 70 statements, read by FTC staff'; a grid of people icons labelled 'survey, 601 participants, AARP'; a spreadsheet icon labelled '30 companies, Jon Taylor (critic)'. The cards persist as a small legend in later scenes.

On screen. 70 income disclosure statements, FTC staff / 601 participants, AARP survey / 30 companies, Taylor (critic of the industry)

Assets. evidence-cards (component: Three evidence-source icons (documents, people grid, spreadsheet))

Cite. FTC staff report on MLM income disclosure statements (70 statements)AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participantsJ. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7

8. sc08 · 1:28 to 2:00 typography

First, the promise, in the recruiters' own words: one coach, Darin Kidd, tells his audience that once the team grows, "it starts to compound", like a snowball; Frazer Brookes says the person you bring in "might recruit 10 people themselves and have an organization of a thousand people". Another trainer, Eric Worre, puts the whole idea in one line: it would be "better to have a smaller percentage of 100 people than 100 of yourself".

Visual. Three quote cards in sequence, each sliding up and settling: 'it starts to compound' with a small snowball glyph rolling; 'might recruit 10 people themselves and have an organization of a thousand people' with the node tree growing one tier behind the text; 'better to have a smaller percentage of 100 people than 100 of yourself'. Attribution lines read 'recruiting coach', 'recruiting trainer', 'network-marketing trainer' in small type.

On screen. "it starts to compound" / "might recruit 10 people themselves and have an organization of a thousand people" / "better to have a smaller percentage of 100 people than 100 of yourself"

Cite. Recruiting coach video (YouTube)Recruiting trainer video (YouTube)Network-marketing trainer video (YouTube)

9. sc09 · 2:00 to 2:05 diagram

That is the pitch: income from the efforts of other people.

Visual. The node tree from sc02, three tiers, with small coin glyphs travelling up the arrows toward the top node. Caption in amber: 'income from the efforts of others'.

On screen. income from the efforts of others

10. sc10 · 2:05 to 2:24 typography

The critics have their own one-liner; in a clip John Oliver's show played, a former Herbalife distributor puts it this way: "You make money from signing people up." Even the FTC's own Consumer Advice page says, flatly, that "Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money."

Visual. Two cards in the slate accent: 'You make money from signing people up.' attributed 'Last Week Tonight'; then a browser-window frame with the FTC consumer page's sentence set in its own plain type: 'Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money.' with the URL path shown small.

On screen. "You make money from signing people up." / "Most people who join legitimate MLMs make little or no money."

Cite. Last Week Tonight, MLM segment (HBO)FTC consumer advice: Multi-Level Marketing Businesses and Pyramid Schemes

11. sc11 · 2:24 to 2:30 transition

Two confident stories, so let us see which one the numbers tell.

Visual. Split field: amber 'the pitch' left, slate 'the critics' right; both wipe to black from the centre as the data section begins.

12. sc12 · 2:30 to 2:40 document-excerpt

Start with the companies, because some of them publish an income disclosure statement, and FTC staff collected 70 of them, from household names to small firms.

Visual. A grid of 70 small document thumbnails (generic, no logos) tiles in, counting up in the corner to 70. One thumbnail enlarges into the FTC summary passage with the phrase highlighted.

Assets. disclosure-thumbnails (component: Generic disclosure-statement thumbnail (procedural, 70 variants))

Cite. FTC staff report on MLM income disclosure statements (70 statements)

13. sc13 · 2:40 to 3:01 data-chart

Once FTC staff worked through the fine print, the statements with enough data to tell showed most participants received $1,000 or less in a year: under $84 a month. In at least 17 of the 70 companies, most participants made nothing at all.

Visual. Three stat tiles, revealed in order with the narration: '$1,000 or less a year' (most participants), 'under $84 a month', '17 of 70: most participants made nothing'. The third tile turns red as it lands.

On screen. most participants: $1,000 or less a year / under $84 a month / 17 of 70 companies: most participants made nothing

most participants made per year$1,000 or lesslte 1000usdFTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35
per monthless than $84lt 84usdFTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35
MLMs where most participants made nothingat least 17 of 70gte 17countFTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35

Cite. FTC staff report on MLM income disclosure statements (70 statements)FTC staff report, section X (27 disclosures giving the no-income share)

14. sc14 · 3:01 to 3:07 animation

And that is the generous reading, because of three things buried in the fine print.

Visual. Camera pushes into the bottom of a disclosure thumbnail until a block of tiny footnote text fills the frame, blurred just enough to be unreadable; the words 'three things' type over it in amber.

On screen. three things in the fine print

15. sc15 · 3:07 to 3:26 diagram

First, who gets counted: of the 70 statements, 29 leave out participants who earned no commission, and another 24 leave out anyone the company has labelled inactive. What happens to an average when you remove the zeros before you take it?

Visual. A 10 by 10 grid of person icons labelled 'participants'. A dotted frame labelled 'the table' encloses the grid. On '29 leave out', the icons marked with a '$0' tag fade and slide outside the frame; on 'another 24', icons tagged 'inactive' follow. A bar labelled 'average' at the right rises visibly as they leave, with no numeral on it. Counters: '29 of 70 statements exclude non-earners', '24 of 70 exclude "inactive" participants'.

On screen. 29 of 70 statements leave out participants with no commission / 24 of 70 leave out participants labelled "inactive"

Assets. person-grid (component: Person-icon grid with tag states ($0, inactive))

Cite. FTC staff report, section IV (who is excluded)

16. sc16 · 3:26 to 3:48 diagram

Second, what gets counted: not one of the 70 statements reports income with expenses taken out in full, and 20 of them never say whether expenses were taken out at all. So the dollar figures are what the company paid out, before most or all of whatever the participant spent to take part.

Visual. A waterfall sketch: one solid bar labelled 'paid by the company'. To its right a hatched block labelled 'expenses: not reported' drops from the top of the bar with a question mark for its height; the result bar is drawn as a dashed outline labelled 'what you keep: unknown'. Counters: 'none of 70 statements: income after all expenses', '20 of 70: expenses not mentioned'.

On screen. none of the 70 statements reports income after all expenses / 20 of 70 do not mention expenses

Cite. FTC staff report, section V (expenses)

17. sc17 · 3:48 to 4:03 document-excerpt

Third, how it is presented: 44 of the 70 break the numbers out only by rank, and in those tables, nearly without exception, the vast majority of participants sit in the two or three lowest ranks.

Visual. The FTC passage on rank tables, set as a document page; the phrase highlights in slate as it is spoken, then the words 'two or three lowest ranks' highlight.

Cite. FTC staff report, section VIII (rank tables)

18. sc18 · 4:03 to 4:31 data-chart

One table the FTC excerpted shows the shape: 92.37 percent of participants in the bottom row, with average earnings of $41.69. The top row averages just over $1,018,350, and holds fewer than 0.01 percent of participants; as the FTC puts it, half the rows in that table describe half a percent of the people.

Visual. Left: the table 'as the company shows it', ten equal rows, average earnings in the right column. Right: 'as the people are distributed', the same ten rows but each row's height proportional to its share of participants, so the $41.69 row fills 92% of the height and the top five rows are hairlines. The right panel builds row by row from the bottom; the $1,018,350.20 row is marked with a magnifier callout because it is too thin to see. Final overlay: 'half the rows describe half of one percent of participants'.

On screen. 92.37% of participants: average $41.69 / <0.01% of participants: average $1,018,350.20 / half the rows describe half of one percent of the people

92.37% of participants$41.6941.69usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
3.63%$844.43844.43usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
1.33%$2,414.112414.11usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
2.16%$4,938.784938.78usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
0.35%$27,898.8927898.89usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
0.06%$58,739.0458739.04usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
0.06%$137,351.18137351.18usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
0.02%$228,094.12228094.12usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
0.01%$452,579.28452579.28usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866
<0.01%$1,018,350.201018350.2usdFTC MLM income disclosure report 2024, lines 838-L866

Cite. FTC staff report, Figure 6: excerpted data from one income disclosure table

19. sc19 · 4:31 to 4:39 typography

Disclosures count what companies paid, not whether anyone came out ahead; for that you have to ask the people.

Visual. Two words on the field: 'paid out' (slate, left) and 'came out ahead' (amber, right) with a thin arrow between; the left word dims as the narration says 'ask the people'.

On screen. paid out / came out ahead?

20. sc20 · 4:39 to 5:06 data-chart

AARP did, in a study published in 2018, using a probability-based national panel, the kind of sample that lets you generalise to the whole country. Among the 601 people it reached, 47 percent said they lost money, 27 percent said they broke even, and the rest, a quarter, said they made a profit, counting their entire time in the business.

Visual. A field of 601 small dots arranges into a rectangle labelled 'nationally representative sample, 2018'. The dots recolour by group with the narration: 47% red (lost money), 27% slate (broke even), 25% muted green (made a profit); a legend with the three percentages appears at the right.

On screen. 601 current and former participants / 47% lost money / 27% broke even / 25% made a profit

lost money47%47percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
broke even27%27percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
made a profit25%25percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139

Assets. dot-plot-601 (component: 601-dot plot component)

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participants

21. sc21 · 5:06 to 5:29 data-chart

Profit, for most of that quarter, was small, and so were most of the losses: on both sides of the ledger the commonest outcome was under $5,000. Only three people in the whole sample reported profits of $100,000 or more, and one of them had founded the company.

Visual. Zoom into the green 25%: a horizontal bar chart of profit bands as a share of all 601 participants: under $5,000 (14%), $5,000 to $9,999 (6%), $10,000 to $24,999 (3%), $25,000 or more (3%). Then three single dots lift out of the last band with the caption '3 people (half of one percent): $100,000 or more; each more than five years in; one founded the company'.

On screen. under $5,000: 14% of participants / $25,000 or more: 3% / 3 people reported $100,000 or more

less than $5,000fourteen percent14percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
$5,000 to $9,9996%6percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
$10,000 to $24,9993%3percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
$25,000 or more3%3percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
$100,000 or more3 people3countAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participants

22. sc22 · 5:29 to 5:42 data-chart

These are people's own accounts of what they put in and took out, which is a limit; they are also the only figures so far that measure profit or loss rather than payout.

Visual. The same bar layout mirrored to the left in red: lost under $5,000 (41%), $5,000 to $9,999 (3%), more than $10,000 (1%). As s65 begins, a stamp reads 'self-reported' across both charts, and a small tag 'profit or loss, not payout' appears beneath.

On screen. lost under $5,000: 41% / lost $5,000 to $9,999: 3% / lost more than $10,000: 1% / self-reported

lost less than $5,00041%41percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
lost $5,000 to $9,9993%3percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
lost more than $10,0001%1percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participants

23. sc23 · 5:42 to 5:53 typography

So most people lose or break even, and the few who profit mostly profit a little. The pitch said recruiting would compound, so why doesn't it?

Visual. The question 'why doesn't it compound?' types on; the snowball glyph from sc08 rolls in and stops.

On screen. why doesn't it compound?

24. sc24 · 5:53 to 6:13 diagram

The FTC describes how the pay plans typically work: commissions for hitting benchmarks such as buying a set amount of product, getting others to buy it, or recruiting people who then buy it; selling to an outside customer at a markup is mentioned as a source of income "in some cases".

Visual. Three solid icons appear in a row as named: 'buy a set amount of product', 'get others to buy it', 'recruit people who buy it', each with a coin arrow to a 'commission' node. A fourth icon, 'sell to an outside customer at a markup', is drawn dashed and labelled 'in some cases' in the FTC's words.

On screen. buy a set amount / get others to buy / recruit people who buy / retail to outsiders: "in some cases"

Assets. commission-icons (component: Four commission-trigger icons)

Cite. FTC staff report, section I (how MLMs pay)

25. sc25 · 6:13 to 6:46 document-excerpt

Taylor went further: he read the compensation plans of the 30 companies with published earnings data, and of more than 350 in all, and concluded that each of them pays primarily for recruiting a large downline rather than for retailing product, with most of the payout going to the highest levels. That is one analyst's reading of the plans; the FTC's report describes the same structure but does not measure how much income actually comes from downlines versus retail customers.

Visual. Taylor's page, with the sentence highlighted in amber as it is read; then the page dims and a caption in slate: 'the FTC describes the structure; neither document measures the split between downline and retail income'.

On screen. 30 companies with earnings data; 350 plans reviewed / described, not measured

Cite. J. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7FTC staff report, section I

26. sc26 · 6:46 to 7:13 diagram

The recruiters reject that framing; the same trainer, Eric Worre, insists that "you don't get paid for the act of building the team you only get paid when sales happen to a customer". Both can be true at once, because in the plans the FTC describes, the "customer" can be the recruit, buying a set amount of product to qualify, and the plans pay commissions on those purchases.

Visual. Quote card in amber: the trainer's sentence. Then the node tree returns; a label 'customer' slides onto one of the recruit nodes, which is also holding a product box, and a coin arrow rises from it to the node above.

On screen. "you don't get paid for the act of building the team you only get paid when sales happen to a customer" / the customer is often the recruit

Cite. Network-marketing trainer video (YouTube)FTC staff report, section I

27. sc27 · 7:13 to 7:30 diagram

Which brings us back to leverage: if income flows up from a downline, somebody has to be the downline. In that rank table, over 90 percent of participants were in a cohort averaging under $100.

Visual. The node tree expands to many tiers; the bottom tier floods the frame and is tinted red with a label 'over 90% of participants, average under $100 (one excerpted table)'. The top node is a single amber point.

On screen. over 90% of participants / average under $100

Cite. FTC staff report, Figure 6 (one disclosure's rank table)

28. sc28 · 7:30 to 7:47 document-excerpt

Taylor's own summary of the pitch says the quiet part: the appeal is "time freedom or leveraged income", a flow from the efforts of others, and under these pay plans getting it depends on recruiting a downline more than on selling the product.

Visual. Taylor's two-column page; the right-hand column is lifted out and set cleanly, with 'time freedom or leveraged income' highlighted in amber.

Cite. J. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7

29. sc29 · 7:47 to 8:17 data-chart

His own estimate is blunter: across those companies, after subtracting required purchases and modest expenses, he puts the share losing money at 99.6 percent, about one in 238 profiting. That number depends on his assumptions about what participants had to spend, how many dropped out and how many were ever counted, which he states; it is an estimate built on the companies' tables, not a measurement of anyone's bank account.

Visual. A grid of 1,000 small squares fills the frame; 996 turn red one row at a time, 4 stay green. Labels: '99.6% lose money', '1 in 238 profit'. On s42 a slate caption prints across the top: 'estimate from company tables, under stated assumptions about required purchases and expenses'.

On screen. 99.6% lose money / 1 in 238 profit / estimate, under stated assumptions

lost money (average across the MLMs analysed)99.6%99.6percentTaylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790
profited1 in 238238ratioTaylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790
lost money, per thousand996 out of 1,000996countTaylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790

Cite. J. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7, Appendix 7A

30. sc30 · 8:17 to 8:31 animation

Critics like to finish with arithmetic; in John Oliver's version, if each recruit brings in a handful more, "you could only do that 13 cycles and you would exceed the population of the earth."

Visual. A pyramid of dots grows level by level, each level several times the last, until it overflows a small outline of the globe at the bottom of the frame; a counter at the side ticks levels up to 13. Label in slate: 'the critics' arithmetic (Last Week Tonight)'.

On screen. 13 cycles / the critics' arithmetic

Cite. Last Week Tonight, MLM segment (HBO)

31. sc31 · 8:31 to 9:02 data-chart

None of the studies here tests that arithmetic directly; what they show is the shape it predicts. Taylor writes of pyramid schemes, a class in which he places MLMs, that recruitment eventually dries up as the market saturates, leaving the vast majority at the bottom. And among the former participants AARP surveyed, 29 percent said they left because the commission structure mostly benefited those at the top, and 25 percent because the market was saturated.

Visual. Caption first: 'not tested by any study here'. Then two bars from the survey's reasons for leaving: 'the commission structure mostly benefited those at the top' 29%, 'the market was too saturated' 25%. Taylor's phrase 'recruitment will dry up as the market becomes saturated' sits beneath in small serif.

On screen. 29%: left because the structure benefited those at the top / 25%: left because the market was saturated / not tested by any study here

commission structure mostly benefited those at the top29%29percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 463-L467
market was too saturated25%25percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 463-L467

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participantsJ. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7

32. sc32 · 9:02 to 9:09 typography

Put the three side by side and they agree on the shape, though they measure different things.

Visual. Title: 'three measures, one shape'. The three evidence cards from sc07 line up beneath.

On screen. three measures, one shape

33. sc33 · 9:09 to 9:35 data-chart

The companies' own statements: most participants received $1,000 or less in a year, before expenses, and most of the tables leave some participants out entirely. The survey: 47 percent lost, 27 percent broke even, a quarter profited, mostly under $5,000; the analyst: 99.6 percent losing, once required purchases are counted as a cost.

Visual. Three panels. Left, 'company payouts': '$1,000 or less a year' with 'before expenses; non-earners often excluded' beneath. Middle, 'survey, profit or loss': the 47 / 27 / 25 stacked bar with '14% of participants made under $5,000'. Right, 'analyst's estimate': '99.6% lose' with 'required purchases counted as cost' beneath.

On screen. payouts: $1,000 or less a year, before expenses / survey: 47% lost, 27% broke even, 25% profited / estimate: 99.6% lose, required purchases counted

most participants received per year (disclosures)$1,000 or lesslte 1000usdFTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35
lost money (survey)47%47percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
broke even (survey)27%27percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
made a profit (survey)25%25percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
made less than $5,000 (survey)fourteen percent14percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392
lost money (Taylor's estimate)99.6%99.6percentTaylor, The Case against MLM, lines 1785-L1790

Cite. FTC staff report on MLM income disclosure statements (70 statements)AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participantsJ. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7

34. sc35 · 9:35 to 9:54 typography

Now the limits, because they matter: the AARP numbers are self-reported, by current and former participants, and nothing checks them against bank statements. The FTC's figures are company payouts, not profit, and they cover the 70 companies whose statements were publicly available, which is not the whole industry.

Visual. A plain list in slate builds one line per clause: 'self-reported'; 'current and former participants'; 'payouts, not profit'; '70 companies whose statements were public'. The three evidence cards sit faintly behind.

On screen. self-reported / payouts, not profit / 70 companies whose statements were public

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participantsFTC staff report on MLM income disclosure statements (70 statements)

35. sc36 · 9:54 to 10:24 typography

Taylor is an independent analyst who argues against the industry, and his 99.6 percent is a calculation under assumptions he states, not a count of real accounts. The split between recruiting income and retail income has been described in these documents, and argued, but not measured. And the population arithmetic is a thought experiment that none of these studies tested; the rank tables show where people end up, not why.

Visual. The list continues: 'a critic's calculation under stated assumptions'; 'recruiting vs retail income: described, not measured'; 'the thirteen-cycles arithmetic: untested'. The last line gets a small pyramid glyph with a question mark.

On screen. 99.6%: a calculation under stated assumptions / recruiting vs retail income: described, not measured / the population arithmetic: untested

Cite. J. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7FTC staff report, section I

36. sc37 · 10:24 to 10:28 animation

So, back to that message from your friend; suppose you say yes.

Visual. The phone from sc01, now in hand; the reply box is open with a blinking cursor; nothing typed.

37. sc38 · 10:28 to 10:49 data-chart

The survey says the most likely outcome, by a wide margin, is that you lose money or break even: 74 percent of participants did. If you do profit, the same survey suggests it will most likely be under $5,000 over your whole time in the business.

Visual. The 47 and 27 segments from sc04 merge into one bar labelled '74%: lost money or broke even'; the remaining 25% segment opens to show 'most profits under $5,000'. The figure 74% is drawn as the sum of the two segments, with '47 + 27' faintly beneath.

On screen. 74% lost money or broke even / 47 + 27 / if you profit: most likely under $5,000

lost money47%47percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
broke even27%27percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
made less than $5,000fourteen percent14percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participantsAARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participants

38. sc39 · 10:49 to 10:56 diagram

And the leverage? It exists, in the plan documents; the rank tables show who it works for.

Visual. The node tree, full height; the single top node pulses amber; the base stays red.

On screen. it exists; here is who it works for

39. sc40 · 10:56 to 11:12 typography

Before you answer, ask for the income disclosure statement, and then ask three questions of it: who is left out of the table, whether the figures are before expenses, and how many people are in the bottom row.

Visual. A disclosure-statement outline with three callouts appearing in turn: 'who is left out of the table?', 'are the figures before expenses?', 'how many people are in the bottom row?'. Bullets, no numerals.

On screen. who is left out of the table? / before expenses? / how many people are in the bottom row?

40. sc41 · 11:12 to 11:39 data-chart

How much money do MLM participants actually make? For most of them, nothing, or less than nothing: in the nationally representative survey, 47 percent lost money and 27 percent broke even, and in the companies' own statements most participants received $1,000 or less in a year before expenses. A quarter made some profit, mostly small, and half of one percent made a lot.

Visual. A closing composite: the 47 / 27 / 25 ring (survey) at left; '$1,000 or less a year, before expenses' (disclosures) at right; beneath, a line of three dots labelled 'half of one percent: $100,000 or more'.

On screen. 47% lost money / 27% broke even / 25% made a profit, mostly small / $1,000 or less a year, before expenses

lost money47%47percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
broke even27%27percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
made a profit25%25percentAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 135-L139
most participants received per year (disclosures)$1,000 or lesslte 1000usdFTC MLM report summary, lines 35-L35
reported $100,000 or more3 people3countAARP MLM survey 2018, lines 376-L392

Cite. AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participantsFTC staff report on MLM income disclosure statements (70 statements)AARP, 2018 survey of 601 current and former MLM participants

41. sc42 · 11:39 to 11:55 diagram

The leverage the pitch sells is real for the fraction at the top; in the plans Taylor read, most of the payout goes to the highest levels, and in the FTC's rank tables the vast majority sit at the bottom.

Visual. The node tree one last time: the top point amber, the base red, a thin label 'more than 90%' along the base and 'the fraction at the top' by the point.

On screen. real for the fraction at the top / more than 90% below

Cite. FTC staff report, Figure 6 (one disclosure's rank table)J. M. Taylor, The Case (for and) against Multi-level Marketing, ch. 7

42. sc43 · 11:55 to 12:11 animation

None of that is a verdict on your friend. It is a description of the structure she has joined, written mostly by the companies themselves, and it is worth reading before you join it too.

Visual. The phone again; the reply box still empty; the screen dims to black on the last word. No end card text other than a small 'sources in the description'.

On screen. sources in the description