Inflation, gas and tariffs 2026 · 68 sources checked

Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter

Very likely right

Regressions on HTS10-country import data through November 2025 find 94 percent of the tariff incidence fell on U.S. importers in January-August 2025 and 86 percent in November; a 10 percent tariff lowered foreign export prices only 0.6 to 1.4 percent, so U.S. firms and consumers bear the bulk of the burden.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (15)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“American businesses and consumers are paying the current tariffs”
How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“the foreign exporters aren't eating the tariffs. They're 90-95% passed through to US importers and their customers.”
Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“tariffs are typically paid by consumers, whether that is companies or individuals in the United States.”
Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“95 to 100% pass through. You paid, not China.”
New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“US companies and consumers paid 90% of the increase in the Republican tariff taxes imposed by Trump during his second term.”
Trade economist explains Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs (FOX 5 New York)“economics has been teaching us for a hundred years that tariffs are mainly paid by domestic consumers”
Why Prices Rise Months After a Tariff, Even on Products Made at Home (GoBrightward)“the importing business, the importer of record, pays the duties, not the overseas seller”
Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“The New York Fed found nearly ninety percent of the burden of the twenty twenty-five tariffs fell on American firms and consumers.”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“They've gotta pass that price on to consumers who ultimately pay it.”
Tariffs Explained with Bananas (Primate Economics)“Banana land banana price usually stay the same, but now Monkeyland monkeys also have to pay Monkeyland government to buy them.”
Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“first and foremost you know these are taxes on Americans”
Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“the tariff is collected from the American importer, not the foreign company”
Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“A tariff is just a tax paid by Americans, not by Canadians. The importer who brings the part across the border pays it”
The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet (Mr Redman)“Fed researchers found evidence of something they called near full pass through with consumers now covering close to 90% of tariff costs”
Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“the importer of record is responsible for applicable duties, taxes, and fees, even when using a broker”
Very likely right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 34-35Regressions on HTS10-country import data through November 2025 find 94 percent of the tariff incidence fell on U.S. importers in January-August 2025 and 86 percent in November; a 10 percent tariff lowered foreign export prices only 0.6 to 1.4 percent, so U.S. firms and consumers bear the bulk of the burden.
Leans right AI guessStudies of the 2018-2019 tariffs (Amiti-Redding-Weinstein, Fajgelbaum et al., Cavallo et al.) found near-complete pass-through into US import prices with little exporter price cutting.

The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices

Probably right

Weekly regular gasoline stepped from 3.015 (03/02/2026) to 3.502 (03/09) and 3.990 (03/30), reaching 4.500 by 05/11, a 54% rise over the Feb 2026 pre-war monthly baseline of 2.908, in the same weeks WTI jumped from 64.51 (Feb) to 91.38 (Mar); the timing fits the conflict as the cause, though a price series alone cannot rule out other drivers.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (14)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“up by well over a dollar since the war started.”
How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices (Wendover Productions)“Prices, however, spiked a massive 60%, seven and a half times more than the contraction in supply.”
Trump makes new promises on gas prices as Iran war reaches 60-day mark (CBS News)“US gas prices have been climbing for 9 straight weeks from an average of $2.98 a gallon in late February to $4.39 a gallon now”
President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“once we get on the other side of this Iran conflict, energy markets are going to be well supplied”
‘ZERO’ percent chance gas prices drop, Iran war ends after midterms: Ret. Lt. General (MS NOW)“the price of gas, the price of all kinds of other things, having an impact on the politics of this country”
Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“The fingerprints of the war are all over this report.”
Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump (MS NOW)“Gasoline and diesel fuel and oil is a product of the conflict in Iran.”
Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“look at the rising price of gasoline, and simply walk away from the conflict”
Trump faces ‘bipartisan pushback’ on diesel deal with Russia as he tries to lower prices (NBC News)“IT'S THE WAR IN IRAN THAT'S LARGELY CAUSING FUEL PRICES TO RISE.”
Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“Energy alone is $1,100 per family according to Moody's.”
Trump says gas prices "will go down rapidly" when Iran war ends as Americans face rising costs (CBS Mornings)“a $1.40 increase since the war with Iran began.”
How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy (PBS NewsHour)“coming from disruptions in first, the Arabian Gulf area due to the war with Iran”
Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“Oil exports have been squeezed hard, and energy prices have climbed, which feeds straight back into the inflation”
Young Voters Helped Trump Win. How Do They Feel Now? | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“it directly is affecting our gas prices and our cost of living domestically”
Probably right EIA regular gasoline, weekly lines 467-470Weekly regular gasoline stepped from 3.015 (03/02/2026) to 3.502 (03/09) and 3.990 (03/30), reaching 4.500 by 05/11, a 54% rise over the Feb 2026 pre-war monthly baseline of 2.908, in the same weeks WTI jumped from 64.51 (Feb) to 91.38 (Mar); the timing fits the conflict as the cause, though a price series alone cannot rule out other drivers.
Leans right AI guessThe Hormuz closure cut global supply and sent crude toward 100 dollars a barrel; US pump prices rose by more than a dollar a gallon in the following weeks.

Tariffs do not raise consumer prices

Very likely wrong

The staff report estimates that about 26 percent of a tariff increase passes through to consumer goods prices within a year, 64 percent directly via imported goods and 36 percent via domestically produced goods, and concludes the 2025 tariffs had economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices.

· ·

Asserts (7)Denies (6)Verdicts (2)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“BECAUSE OF TARIFFS WE ARE TAKING AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MORE THAN WE EVER HAD BEFORE. WITH NO INFLATION BY THE WAY, NO INFLATION.”
Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“So the point being tariffs don't cause inflation.”
Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“tariffs don't cause inflation they cause success cause big success”
The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“Prices have not increased at all. In fact, inflation, the rate has actually gone down, not up, even since the tariffs were implemented.”
Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise (13WHAM ABC News)“TARIFFS DON'T CAUSE INFLATION.”
FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“But we don't have inflation and tariffs don't cause inflation.”
Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“we don't have inflation and tariffs so cause inflation. You know what they cause? Wealth.”
DENIES Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“The president's tariffs are uh contributing meaningfully to measured consumer price inflation.”
DENIES Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation (CBS News)“Inflation also jumped after those tariffs”
DENIES New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“Besset claims that the tariffs are not inflationary, but he stated in early 2024 before he became Treasury Secretary that tariffs were inflationary.”
DENIES Tariffs Explained with Bananas (Primate Economics)“So if tariffs make everything more expensive, why do we even have them?”
DENIES Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“They raise production costs, and they push consumer prices up.”
DENIES The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet (Mr Redman)“For most of a year, it looked like tariffs were somehow free. They weren't free. They were financed.”
Very likely wrong NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 1064-1074The staff report estimates that about 26 percent of a tariff increase passes through to consumer goods prices within a year, 64 percent directly via imported goods and 36 percent via domestically produced goods, and concludes the 2025 tariffs had economically and statistically significant effects on consumer prices.
Leans wrong AI guessStudies of the 2018-2019 and 2025 tariffs find near-complete pass-through into import prices and measurable retail price rises on tariffed goods such as appliances, furniture and coffee.

Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs

Very likely wrong

Foreign exporters bore only 6 to 14 percent of the 2025 tariff incidence by period, with U.S. importers bearing 86 to 94 percent; the staff report's import-price regressions give the same roughly 90 percent border pass-through.

· ·

Asserts (4)Denies (6)Verdicts (2)

Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“took in uh $600 billion dollar of money from other countries and uh tariffs don't cause inflation”
State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“foreign exporters are paying 53% of us there so far”
WATCH: Trump says tariffs could replace income tax | 2026 State of the Union (PBS NewsHour)“Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars”
DENIES Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“it was foreignbased companies that would be paying that which almost everyone says is not true”
DENIES How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“Trump had promised that foreign countries would be the ones paying for its tariffs, but ...”
DENIES Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“in most cases, it is actually the American consumer, companies or individuals, paying it.”
DENIES New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“Moran may be the only economist in the world who actually believes that nonsense.”
DENIES Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“If foreign sellers had carried the tax, they'd have cut their prices to make room for it. Mostly, they didn't.”
DENIES Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“the promise was simple. Foreigners pay. China pays, Mexico pays, not you. Well, the receipts are in now, and they tell a very different story.”
Very likely wrong NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 29-35Foreign exporters bore only 6 to 14 percent of the 2025 tariff incidence by period, with U.S. importers bearing 86 to 94 percent; the staff report's import-price regressions give the same roughly 90 percent border pass-through.
Leans wrong AI guessPass-through studies of 2018-2019 found foreign exporters cut prices little; US importers bore nearly all of the tariff, with partial exceptions for some Chinese goods.

Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026]

Almost certainly right

Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026 (seasonally adjusted) as CPI growth outpaced nominal earnings growth; real weekly earnings fell 0.1%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (9)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation (CBS News)“inflation is really just eating up all of the wage growth that Trump has talked about and then some”
Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“September was the sixth month in a row that pay lost the race to prices.”
September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“WITH INFLATION NOW AT 3.7% YOUR WAGES ARE JUST AT 3%. SO THE GAP IS GETTING WIDER HERE”
Real Wages Are Falling Going Into the Midterms (Steve Rattner)“under Trump, they actually came down and a flatlined. So, again, voters are looking at no real wage increases under Trump.”
Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“for six months in a row, for the half a year, real wages adjusted for inflation, they're getting smaller”
Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“Paychecks are also falling behind, so people are able to buy less with what they have.”
Economist breaks down new inflation report and what's driving prices higher (PBS NewsHour)“There's been no wage growth once you adjust for inflation”
Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“Wage growth that isn't quite keeping up with inflation.”
Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“inflation is really just eating up all of the wage growth that Trump has talked about and then some”
Almost certainly right BLS Real Earnings, September 2026 lines 11-14Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026 (seasonally adjusted) as CPI growth outpaced nominal earnings growth; real weekly earnings fell 0.1%.
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1436-1442Derived real average hourly earnings (AHE deflated by CPI-U) show negative 12-month growth in every month from April 2026 (-0.2%) to September 2026 (-0.7%), with nominal AHE growth slowing to 3.0% while CPI ran 3.3-4.2%.
Leans right AI guessWith CPI at 3.7 percent and average hourly earnings growing about 3 percent in 2026, real wages have slipped for several months, reversing 2024-2025 gains.

Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports

Very likely right

The paper's central finding is that tariffs raise the prices of goods made at home, not just the imports they tax: 36 percent of the consumer price effect comes through domestic producers' higher imported-input costs and higher markups under weaker import competition.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (8)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“not just the imported goods, but the domestic ones, as well.”
Why Prices Rise Months After a Tariff, Even on Products Made at Home (GoBrightward)“Paths two and three run through goods made at home, and they share a trait. They're slower.”
Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“Dryers had no tariff on them. Their prices rose by about the same amount.”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“not only did the price of imported washing machines go up, so did the ones made in the US”
Tariffs Explained with Bananas (Primate Economics)“Local price can also go up to just under banana land banana.”
Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“About a third comes from goods made right here in America”
Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“you haven't punished a foreign rival, you've just made American-built cars dramatically more expensive to build and to buy”
Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“Imported materials become costlier and reduced import competition can affect markups.”
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 15-24The paper's central finding is that tariffs raise the prices of goods made at home, not just the imports they tax: 36 percent of the consumer price effect comes through domestic producers' higher imported-input costs and higher markups under weaker import competition.
Leans right AI guessProtected domestic producers raise prices under the tariff umbrella; the USITC found domestic steel prices rose with the 2018 tariffs.

Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026]

Almost certainly right

BLS reports the gasoline index rose 9.1% in September 2026 and accounted for over half of the 0.6% monthly all-items increase; over 12 months energy rose 20.4% due in large part to gasoline rising 34.2%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (8)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“The price of gasoline jumped 9.1% in September alone. That one item was more than half of the whole month's increase.”
President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“headline inflation is high because of the energy shock”
September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“RIGHT NOW, INFLATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY HIGHER OIL PRICES.”
Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“We also discover a lot of that is that we buy gasoline. And if you strip out food and energy, we're back down to 2.6%.”
Economist breaks down new inflation report and what's driving prices higher (PBS NewsHour)“Half of it is coming from the high gas and diesel prices”
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% (CNBC Television)“ENERGY UP 5.2 WITH GASOLINE LEADING THE WAY UP 9.1%.”
They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number (Tim Talks Finance)“That one item caused more than half of the whole month's increase.”
Why inflation is heating up again across almost every category.mp4 (Yahoo Finance)“we have continued to have energy prices that have been persistently high here.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 11-27BLS reports the gasoline index rose 9.1% in September 2026 and accounted for over half of the 0.6% monthly all-items increase; over 12 months energy rose 20.4% due in large part to gasoline rising 34.2%.
Leans right AI guessGasoline rose about 9 percent in September 2026 and accounted for more than half of the 0.6 percent monthly CPI rise, per the BLS release.

Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends

Unknown

A prediction; oil fell quickly after the 1991 Gulf War, but markets may price in a lasting Gulf risk premium and pump prices fall more slowly than they rise.

· ·

Asserts (6)Denies (1)Verdicts (1)

Trump makes new promises on gas prices as Iran war reaches 60-day mark (CBS News)“The gasoline, the oil will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over.”
President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“oil will come down to levels that were, I think, maybe even lower than they were before the war started”
Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“That war is going to end very soon. And when it does, your prices are going to come tumbling down. They already are.”
FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“it's going to end very quickly. And when that happens, your oil is going to come way down.”
Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“once we get through the conflict with Iran, the price of gas goes down, the price of goods therefore goes down.”
Trump says gas prices "will go down rapidly" when Iran war ends as Americans face rising costs (CBS Mornings)“The gasoline, the oil will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over.”
DENIES ‘ZERO’ percent chance gas prices drop, Iran war ends after midterms: Ret. Lt. General (MS NOW)“Gasoline's going to drop like a rock, just like it was just before.”
Unknown AI guessA prediction; oil fell quickly after the 1991 Gulf War, but markets may price in a lasting Gulf risk premium and pump prices fall more slowly than they rise.

Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026]

Almost certainly right

The 12-month CPI change was 3.0% in January 2025 and 3.7% in September 2026, the latest reading; core rose from 3.3% to 2.6% over the same span, so the increase is in headline inflation driven by energy.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (7)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation (CBS News)“inflation is higher than when he took office. It was 3% then. It's 3.7% now.”
Trump says 'tariffs don't cause inflation' despite latest inflation numbers (WHAS11)“Inflation is now at 3.7% compared to a year ago, up nearly 1% since President Trump took office.”
JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“inflation, mortgage rates, and gas prices are all higher than when you took office”
Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise (13WHAM ABC News)“INFLATION IS NOW AT 3.7% COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO, UP NEARLY 1% SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP TOOK OFFICE.”
Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“inflation was lower when President Trump took office than it is now”
Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“inflation is higher right now than it was when the president started his second term”
Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“inflation is higher than when he took office. It was 3% then, it's 3.7% now.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 79-99The 12-month CPI change was 3.0% in January 2025 and 3.7% in September 2026, the latest reading; core rose from 3.3% to 2.6% over the same span, so the increase is in headline inflation driven by energy.
Very likely right AI guessCPI inflation was 3.0% in January 2025 and 3.7% in the September 2026 report.

Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation

Probably right

The tariff effect on the consumer goods price level peaked near 3 percent in February 2026 and stays positive, while the contribution to twelve-month goods inflation peaked at 2.9 points, falls to about zero by August 2026 and then turns negative as the 2025 increases drop out of the comparison.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (7)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“I NEVER THOUGHT THE TARIFFS WERE INFLATIONARY. THEY ARE A SLIVER OF A VALUE-ADDED TAX SOURCE CONSUMPTION TAX. IT'S ALREADY BAKED IN.”
Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation; They're Worse (Tax Foundation)“Accommodation would result in a one-time increase in the price level.”
Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“Their model has the tariffs still holding goods prices about two percent higher. That part doesn't fade.”
Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“if it all happened at once, inflation would be 2 to 4% higher. It may not all happen at once.”
Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“fading inflation only means that prices stop climbing. It does not mean they return to where they started.”
Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“The inflation shock cools, but prices do not come back down. The damage is baked into the level.”
Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“the tariff contribution to annual goods inflation fades, while the price level remains above their no tariff comparison”
Very likely right AI guessA tariff shifts relative prices and the level once; persistent inflation requires monetary accommodation or de-anchored expectations, which the 2018-19 episode did not show.
Probably right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 29-31The tariff effect on the consumer goods price level peaked near 3 percent in February 2026 and stays positive, while the contribution to twelve-month goods inflation peaked at 2.9 points, falls to about zero by August 2026 and then turns negative as the 2025 increases drop out of the comparison.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026) lines 19-20Business surveys show firms spreading tariff-related price increases over extended periods, so what is in principle a one-time price-level adjustment is in practice drawn out, especially when tariffs change frequently.

Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026]

Probably partly right

In September 2026 most major indexes rose (recreation, used cars, education, airline fares, medical care, apparel) and only a small number such as communication fell, and core CPI edged up to 2.6% from 2.4%; but core goods were up only 0.7% over the year and the core monthly rate was unchanged at 0.3%, so the broadening is modest rather than most categories accelerating.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (6)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“about 61% of everything in the basket is up more than 3% from a year ago. So, it's not one bad acorn.”
FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“Too many categories are still posting increases above 3 percent on both a 6- and 12-month basis.”
September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“EVERYTHING ELSE IS POPPING MONTH AFTER MONTH, YEAR AFTER YEAR.”
Economist breaks down new inflation report and what's driving prices higher (PBS NewsHour)“the war in Iran is not causing medical care, dental care, toys, apparel. I hope nobody's shopping for a suit. Those really jumped up.”
US Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Five Months (Bloomberg Television)“RECREATION USED CARS, TRUCKS, EDUCATION, MEDICAL CARE APPAREL. NOT A LOT OF DISINFLATION THERE.”
Why inflation is heating up again across almost every category.mp4 (Yahoo Finance)“almost every category saw re-acceleration. Energy's not alone.”
Probably partly right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 20-27In September 2026 most major indexes rose (recreation, used cars, education, airline fares, medical care, apparel) and only a small number such as communication fell, and core CPI edged up to 2.6% from 2.4%; but core goods were up only 0.7% over the year and the core monthly rate was unchanged at 0.3%, so the broadening is modest rather than most categories accelerating.
Leans right AI guessSeptember 2026 CPI showed shelter, used cars, apparel and services all accelerating while core rose to 2.6 percent from 2.4.

Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers

Very likely right

The marginal cost channel is the main route into domestic prices: for the average consumer goods industry, which uses 18 percent imported inputs, a 10 percent increase in input duties raises producer prices by 2.6 percent over twelve months, positive and significant in every specification.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (6)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“the slight majority of what the US imports every year are um uh goods that US businesses need to make stuff here”
How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“if those imported components and big things that they use like steel and aluminum are more expensive as a result of tariffs, they can't hire”
JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“new tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum have raised input costs and compressed margins for many domestic producers”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“All the industries that use steel have to pay the higher price that squeezes their profit margins.”
Tariffs Explained with Bananas (Primate Economics)“Some monkey businesses import other things from banana land to help run business. Tariffs make these more expensive.”
Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“That makes manufacturing in the United States harder, not easier if you're making our input goods more expensive.”
Very likely right AI guessThe 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs measurably raised input costs and reduced employment in downstream manufacturing.
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 626-631The marginal cost channel is the main route into domestic prices: for the average consumer goods industry, which uses 18 percent imported inputs, a 10 percent increase in input duties raises producer prices by 2.6 percent over twelve months, positive and significant in every specification.

Tariffs make the country that imposes them wealthier

Leans wrong

The 2018-2019 tariffs produced a net welfare loss after counting revenue (Fajgelbaum et al.), and large majorities of surveyed economists say tariffs lower average living standards.

· ·

Asserts (4)Denies (1)Verdicts (1)

Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“the tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong”
Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise (13WHAM ABC News)“YOU KNOW WHAT? THEY CAUSE WEALTH.”
FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“You know what they cause? Wealth. They cause wealth.”
Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“You know what they cause? Wealth. They cause wealth. We're richer now.”
DENIES Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation (CBS News)“You know what they cause? Wealth. They cause wealth. We're richer now.”
Leans wrong AI guessThe 2018-2019 tariffs produced a net welfare loss after counting revenue (Fajgelbaum et al.), and large majorities of surveyed economists say tariffs lower average living standards.

Grocery prices have been flat to falling while energy drives inflation [September 2026]

Very likely right

Food at home changed -0.1%, 0.0% and -0.1% in July-September 2026 while energy rose 5.2% in September and gasoline accounted for over half the monthly all-items rise; grocery prices are still up 1.8% over 12 months, so flat-to-falling describes recent months, not the year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (5)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“Grocery prices actually slipped 0.1%.”
September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“FOOD COMING IN FLAT 0%. THAT'S A BIT ENCOURAGING”
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% (CNBC Television)“FOOD THOUGH WAS A GOOSE EGG.”
US Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Five Months (Bloomberg Television)“FOOD AND HOME GROCERY PRICES WERE DOWN 1/10 OF A PERCENT WHICH IS INTERESTING BUT GASOLINE PRICES UP 9.1%”
They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number (Tim Talks Finance)“Groceries actually dipped a little in September.”
Very likely right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 15-18Food at home changed -0.1%, 0.0% and -0.1% in July-September 2026 while energy rose 5.2% in September and gasoline accounted for over half the monthly all-items rise; grocery prices are still up 1.8% over 12 months, so flat-to-falling describes recent months, not the year.
Leans right AI guessFood at home fell 0.1 percent in September 2026 and is up under 2 percent on the year, while energy rose 5.2 percent in the month.

Strong employment and GDP growth can coexist with falling household purchasing power

Probably partly right

In 2026 real hourly earnings fell 0.7% over the year while real GDP grew 2.5% and 2.2% annualized in Q1 and Q2 and unemployment held at 4.1-4.3%, showing growth and falling purchasing power coexisting; but job gains were weak (+29,000 in September, 45,000/month average), so the employment side was steady rather than strong.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (5)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“The economy looks great. Actually, unemployment is at 4.2%. We call that full employment. Retail sales 1.2%. People keep spending despite high prices.”
Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump (MS NOW)“If you look at the stock market, which they do tout regularly, a lot of it's due to the big seven tech companies.”
Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“more people working in wage growth right now. So those are some good things. They still have to address affordability.”
Trump claims ‘roaring’ economy but these Americans aren’t feeling it (AP Archive)“you can't just say, "Oh, GDP is going up. Oh, the stock market's going up. Everyone's doing great."”
Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“while the stock market is doing fine and the unemployment rate isn't bad, other indicators are not so hot”
Probably partly right BLS Real Earnings, September 2026 lines 11-14In 2026 real hourly earnings fell 0.7% over the year while real GDP grew 2.5% and 2.2% annualized in Q1 and Q2 and unemployment held at 4.1-4.3%, showing growth and falling purchasing power coexisting; but job gains were weak (+29,000 in September, 45,000/month average), so the employment side was steady rather than strong.
Leans right AI guess2026 shows low unemployment and record equity prices alongside wages trailing a 3.7 percent CPI, as 2021-2022 did.

Retaliation and uncertainty from tariffs slow investment and growth

Leans right

Fed research (Caldara et al. 2020) estimated 2018-2019 trade-policy uncertainty cut US investment by about 1 percent, and retaliation cut farm and manufacturing exports.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (4)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“not a day goes by that there's not some story about investors holding back investment because of tariff-related uncertainty.”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“So not only will US import shrink, but US exports will shrink as well.”
Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“tariff uncertainty is making it difficult for firms to make investment decisions all around the world”
Thomas Sowell Discusses The Trump Tariffs | Uncommon Knowledge | Full Interview on April 15, 2025 (Hoover Institution)“that is the formula for having people s hang on to their money until they figure out what you're going to do.”
Leans right AI guessFed research (Caldara et al. 2020) estimated 2018-2019 trade-policy uncertainty cut US investment by about 1 percent, and retaliation cut farm and manufacturing exports.

Rising diesel prices raise the cost of most other goods

Leans right

Diesel powers freight and farming, so its cost feeds into shipping and food prices, though fuel is only a few percent of most goods' final price.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (4)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“rising diesel costs in particular also make everything else more expensive.”
Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise (13WHAM ABC News)“EVERYTHING YOU EAT, CONSUME, WEAR IS DELIVERED WITH A DIESEL POWERED VEHICLE.”
Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“diesel is near all time highs. That's lifting the cost of transport, fuel, food.”
How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy (PBS NewsHour)“it's important, it's important for the Federal Reserve and macroeconomists as an inflation risk”
Leans right AI guessDiesel powers freight and farming, so its cost feeds into shipping and food prices, though fuel is only a few percent of most goods' final price.

Importers absorb much of a new tariff at first and pass it to consumers over the following months

Probably right

Import prices rise almost one for one in the first month, so importers pay the tariff immediately, while retail pass-through of the direct effect is only about half complete after three months and full after six, and the indirect effect via domestic producers keeps building to twelve months.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (4)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“major companies will only gradually increase consumer prices to recoup the Republican tariff taxes paid by them”
Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“Within seven months, shoppers were carrying about forty-five percent of the bill. The rest sat with American companies.”
Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“Companies absorb early import duty costs through thinner profit margins, but that corporate cushion wears thin over time.”
The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet (Mr Redman)“businesses absorbed roughly 80% of tariff costs themselves that year, not out of generosity, out of fear.”
Probably right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 16-17Import prices rise almost one for one in the first month, so importers pay the tariff immediately, while retail pass-through of the direct effect is only about half complete after three months and full after six, and the indirect effect via domestic producers keeps building to twelve months.
Leans right NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026) lines 13-14In May 2026 regional business surveys, 47 percent of tariff-paying service firms and 44 percent of manufacturers said they still had tariff-induced price increases to come, more than a year after the tariffs began, consistent with gradual pass-through after initial absorption.
Leans right AI guessCavallo et al. found retail prices of tariffed goods rose with a lag in 2018-2019, and 2025 surveys showed firms absorbing most of the cost in margins before raising prices.

The US economy is booming [2026]

Probably partly right

Real GDP grew at 2.5% and 2.2% annual rates in Q1 and Q2 2026, roughly trend growth, while payrolls averaged +45,000 a month and real hourly earnings fell 0.7% over the year; the economy is growing, but the data describe a solid expansion rather than a boom.

· ·

Asserts (3)Denies (1)Verdicts (2)

Trump says "I love the inflation" because U.S. is "taking" Iranian oil (CBS News)“the one bad thing will be we hit the best economy we've ever hit”
Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“The economy is the greatest economy we've ever had by far.”
State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“our nation is back bigger, better, richer, and stronger than ever before”
DENIES ‘ZERO’ percent chance gas prices drop, Iran war ends after midterms: Ret. Lt. General (MS NOW)“The country is booming, the country's booming.”
Probably partly right BEA GDP, Q2 2026 lines 12-12Real GDP grew at 2.5% and 2.2% annual rates in Q1 and Q2 2026, roughly trend growth, while payrolls averaged +45,000 a month and real hourly earnings fell 0.7% over the year; the economy is growing, but the data describe a solid expansion rather than a boom.
Untestable AI guessNo operational definition; growth and jobs were positive while inflation, sentiment and real incomes were weak.

A falling inflation rate means consumer prices are falling

Almost certainly wrong

From January 2023 to September 2024 the 12-month inflation rate fell from 6.4% to 2.4% while the CPI-U level rose from 299.17 to 315.301; a falling rate means prices rise more slowly, not that they fall.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (4)Verdicts (2)

DENIES The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“prices are technically expanding, but the actual rate is decreasing”
DENIES Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“But inflation is how fast prices rise, not where they are.”
DENIES Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“the research shows that tariff -driven goods inflation was fading fast across the broader economy. Yet fading inflation only means that prices stop climbing.”
DENIES Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“Slower inflation describes the pace of change. It does not automatically mean prices have returned to their earlier level.”
Almost certainly wrong AI guessInflation is the rate of change of the price level; a lower positive rate means prices rise more slowly, not that they fall.
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 55-75From January 2023 to September 2024 the 12-month inflation rate fell from 6.4% to 2.4% while the CPI-U level rose from 299.17 to 315.301; a falling rate means prices rise more slowly, not that they fall.

The previous administration presided over the worst inflation in US history

Leans wrong

The 2022 peak of 9.1 percent was the highest since 1981 but below the 14.8 percent of 1980 and the near-20 percent of 1947.

· ·

Asserts (2)Denies (1)Verdicts (1)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“they gave us the worst inflation in American history, the highest energy prices in American history”
President Trump Holds Press Gaggle Before Flight to Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“We inherited a terrible inflation from Biden, the worst in the history of our country.”
DENIES Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“even that 9.1% 40-year peak was nowhere close to the all-time high. The all-time high is 23.7% in 1920.”
Leans wrong AI guessThe 2022 peak of 9.1 percent was the highest since 1981 but below the 14.8 percent of 1980 and the near-20 percent of 1947.

Tariffs on inputs cost more jobs in the industries that use them than they protect in the producing industry

Leans right

Flaaen and Pierce (Fed, 2019) found the 2018-2019 tariffs' input-cost and retaliation effects outweighed import protection, for a net loss of manufacturing jobs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“steel-consuming industries outnumber steel industries in terms of workers by 70 to 1”
Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“steel using and export oriented industries lost more jobs than steel and aluminum gained.”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“you lose jobs as many if not more jobs in those downstream industries as you gain in the upstream industries”
Leans right AI guessFlaaen and Pierce (Fed, 2019) found the 2018-2019 tariffs' input-cost and retaliation effects outweighed import protection, for a net loss of manufacturing jobs.

Tariffs raise government revenue while raising costs for US consumers

Very likely right

Duties collected lifted the average duty rate to around 8.5 percent of import value while 86 to 94 percent of the tariff incidence fell on U.S. importers, so import prices for tariffed goods rose about 11 percent more than untariffed ones; revenue and higher U.S. costs arrive together.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“the administration was really counting on this revenue from the tariffs to plug that fiscal hole”
Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“The terrorists did bring in government revenue about 61 billion. But here's the problem.”
Tariffs Explained with Bananas (Primate Economics)“Monkeyland government makes money every time monkeys import bananas from banana land.”
Very likely right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 34-35Duties collected lifted the average duty rate to around 8.5 percent of import value while 86 to 94 percent of the tariff incidence fell on U.S. importers, so import prices for tariffed goods rose about 11 percent more than untariffed ones; revenue and higher U.S. costs arrive together.
Leans right AI guessTariffs raised about 60-80 billion a year in 2018-2019 and over 300 billion in 2025, while pass-through studies show US buyers paid the higher prices.

Higher diesel, fertilizer and shipping costs from the oil shock pass through to consumer goods prices with a lag of months

Leans right

Energy and freight costs feed into food and goods prices over several months, as seen after the 2022 oil and fertilizer spike.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump says 'tariffs don't cause inflation' despite latest inflation numbers (WHAS11)“the lifeblood of America is diesel fuel. Everything you eat, consume, wear is delivered.”
Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump (MS NOW)“all the stuff that is related to fuel costs, we're going to end up seeing a spike in costs for those goods as well”
Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“The increased costs of fertilizer, diesel, and rerouted shipping have already been baked into the supply chain.”
Very likely right AI guessEnergy and freight costs feed into food and goods prices over several months, as seen after the 2022 oil and fertilizer spike.

Tariffs pass through only partially to shelf prices because distribution margins make up a large share of what consumers pay

Very likely right

A 1 percent rise in pre-retail prices raises consumer prices by 0.56 percent; since wholesale, retail and transportation margins are 53 percent of what consumers pay for tradable goods, complete cost pass-through implies a coefficient of about 0.47, which the estimate cannot be distinguished from.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Why Prices Rise Months After a Tariff, Even on Products Made at Home (GoBrightward)“The tariff applies to the import value, not the shelf price.”
Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“about 1/4 of a tariff increase ends up passed through to consumer goods prices. Not all of it, roughly a quarter.”
Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“about 26% of a uniform tariff increase reaches average consumer goods prices after a year”
Very likely right AI guessTransport, wholesale and retail margins are roughly half of a typical goods price, so even full pass-through of the duty raises the shelf price by a fraction of the tariff rate.
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 818-830A 1 percent rise in pre-retail prices raises consumer prices by 0.56 percent; since wholesale, retail and transportation margins are 53 percent of what consumers pay for tradable goods, complete cost pass-through implies a coefficient of about 0.47, which the estimate cannot be distinguished from.

The US has no inflation [October 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

The latest release (September 2026) shows CPI-U up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months, the fastest 12-month pace since May 2026.

· ·

Asserts (1)Denies (2)Verdicts (2)

Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“we don't have inflation”
DENIES Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation (CBS News)“the president is by his own government's data incorrect that we don't have inflation”
DENIES Trump says 'tariffs don't cause inflation' despite latest inflation numbers (WHAS11)“But Trump denies it's a problem. -- But -- we don't have inflation”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 11-13The latest release (September 2026) shows CPI-U up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months, the fastest 12-month pace since May 2026.
Almost certainly wrong AI guessCPI rose 3.7% year over year in the September 2026 report, well above the 2% target.

Tariffs added measurably to US consumer inflation over the year after they took effect

Probably right

By February 2026, a year after the tariffs began, they had added 2.9 percentage points to twelve-month consumer goods inflation in the sample, which would otherwise have been slightly negative; the sample excludes services, so the headline CPI contribution is smaller than the goods figure.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation (CBS News)“Inflation also jumped after those tariffs and the Fed's target rate is 2%”
Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation, peaking this February”
Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to annual inflation in 67 categories of consumer goods by February 2026”
Very likely right AI guessNew York Fed estimates put the tariff contribution to consumer goods inflation at close to three points at its early-2026 peak.
Probably right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 19-20By February 2026, a year after the tariffs began, they had added 2.9 percentage points to twelve-month consumer goods inflation in the sample, which would otherwise have been slightly negative; the sample excludes services, so the headline CPI contribution is smaller than the goods figure.

Inflation has run above the Fed's target for more than five years [September 2026]

Very likely right

The 12-month CPI-U change has been at least 2.3% in every month from March 2021 (2.6%) through September 2026 (3.7%), five and a half years; the Fed's target is on PCE inflation, which runs somewhat below CPI, so the lowest CPI readings (2.3% in April 2025) leave a small margin.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“for more than five years, inflation has been running above target”
FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“for more than 5 years, inflation has been running above target”
Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“Inflation has been above the Fed's target for 5 years now.”
Almost certainly right AI guessPCE inflation has exceeded 2% every month since early 2021.
Very likely right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 33-99The 12-month CPI-U change has been at least 2.3% in every month from March 2021 (2.6%) through September 2026 (3.7%), five and a half years; the Fed's target is on PCE inflation, which runs somewhat below CPI, so the lowest CPI readings (2.3% in April 2025) leave a small margin.

Inflation over the most recent three months has run below the Fed's two percent target [October 2026]

Very likely wrong

Seasonally adjusted CPI-U rose from 332.568 in June to 336.298 in September 2026 (+1.1% in three months, about 4.6% annualized), far above 2%; the claim held only for the June-August window (May 333.979 to August 334.131, about 0.2% annualized) because of June's energy-driven -0.4% month.

· ·

Asserts (1)Denies (2)Verdicts (2)

President Trump Holds Press Gaggle Before Flight to Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“we're at 1.7% inflation for the last three months”
DENIES Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“Nobody can find his 1.7.”
DENIES Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“We have not had anywhere close to 1.7 inflation in the last 3 months. We had 3.4% in July, 3.4% in August, up to 3.7%”
Almost certainly wrong AI guessThe three monthly CPI changes to September 2026 sum to 1.1%, about 3.3% annualized, and the year-on-year rate was 3.7%.
Very likely wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 191-195Seasonally adjusted CPI-U rose from 332.568 in June to 336.298 in September 2026 (+1.1% in three months, about 4.6% annualized), far above 2%; the claim held only for the June-August window (May 333.979 to August 334.131, about 0.2% annualized) because of June's energy-driven -0.4% month.

Underlying inflation is running around three percent and not decelerating [2026]

Very likely partly right

Core CPI ran 2.4-2.9% through 2026 (2.6% in September) and core services 2.9-3.4%, so 'around three' overstates core slightly; and it did decelerate, from 3.0-3.1% in mid-2025 to 2.4% in August 2026, before rebounding to 2.6%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (3)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“I think underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything it's accelerating rather than uh rather than decelerating.”
Economist breaks down new inflation report and what's driving prices higher (PBS NewsHour)“this is more than a gas and oil problem and that it's going to be harder to get it down than we expected”
FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
Very likely partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 277-291Core CPI ran 2.4-2.9% through 2026 (2.6% in September) and core services 2.9-3.4%, so 'around three' overstates core slightly; and it did decelerate, from 3.0-3.1% in mid-2025 to 2.4% in August 2026, before rebounding to 2.6%.
Probably right AI guessCore PCE ran near three percent through 2026 and core CPI edged up into the autumn, with no sustained move toward target.

Recent economic growth has raised the purchasing power of typical workers

Very likely wrong

Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026 (nominal pay +3.0% vs CPI +3.7%), so the typical worker's purchasing power declined over the past year rather than rose.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“for the first time in years, wages are rising much faster than inflation”
FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“income for hardworking Americans has soared to the highest level ever recorded.”
Very likely wrong BLS Real Earnings, September 2026 lines 11-14Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026 (nominal pay +3.0% vs CPI +3.7%), so the typical worker's purchasing power declined over the past year rather than rose.
Leans partly right AI guessNominal incomes are at record highs, but with CPI at 3.7 percent against wage growth near 3 percent in 2026, real pay for typical workers has been flat to falling this year.

Tariffs cannot raise enough revenue to replace the income tax because high rates shrink imports

Leans right

Imports are about 3 trillion dollars against roughly 2.2 trillion of income tax revenue, and rates high enough to close the gap would cut imports sharply; PWBM and Tax Foundation reach the same conclusion.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“when you actually apply those tariffs, imports go down. So you actually have a shrinking tax base”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“about 5% of what the federal government currently brings in with taxes”
Leans right AI guessImports are about 3 trillion dollars against roughly 2.2 trillion of income tax revenue, and rates high enough to close the gap would cut imports sharply; PWBM and Tax Foundation reach the same conclusion.

The Smoot-Hawley tariff worsened the Great Depression

Leans right

Most economic historians rate Smoot-Hawley and the retaliation it triggered as a secondary factor that deepened the Depression by collapsing trade, with monetary contraction as the main cause.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“it plus the retaliation that it engendered contributed to the Great Depression. It didn't cause it.”
Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“It worsened the Great Depression.”
Leans right AI guessMost economic historians rate Smoot-Hawley and the retaliation it triggered as a secondary factor that deepened the Depression by collapsing trade, with monetary contraction as the main cause.

Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [spring 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

Spring 2026 (Mar-May) regular gasoline averaged 4.073 (3.638, 4.103, 4.479), 17.7% above the Biden-period (Feb 2021-Jan 2025) mean of 3.461 and 17.4% below the Biden peak of 4.929 (Jun 2022); April and May 2026 were each above the Biden mean, so gasoline was dearer than the typical Biden-era price, cheaper only than the 2022 peak.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (2)Verdicts (2)

DENIES ‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“IN APRIL OF 2024, WE WERE AT ABOUT 365. SO WE'RE ACTUALLY ABOVE WHERE WE WERE THEN.”
DENIES Trump makes new promises on gas prices as Iran war reaches 60-day mark (CBS News)“they are now at their highest point since mid-2022”
Almost certainly wrong EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 47-56Spring 2026 (Mar-May) regular gasoline averaged 4.073 (3.638, 4.103, 4.479), 17.7% above the Biden-period (Feb 2021-Jan 2025) mean of 3.461 and 17.4% below the Biden peak of 4.929 (Jun 2022); April and May 2026 were each above the Biden mean, so gasoline was dearer than the typical Biden-era price, cheaper only than the 2022 peak.
Leans wrong AI guessGasoline averaged about 3.60 a gallon in April 2024 and about 4.30 in late April 2026; the comparison only works against the June 2022 peak.

Gasoline prices rise quickly after an oil shock but fall back slowly

Leans partly right

The quick rise is clear in both shocks (a 0.49 jump in one week, 03/02-03/09/2026, and 02/28-03/07/2022), but the slow fall is not: in 2026 the national average dropped from the 05/11 peak of 4.500 to 3.777 by 07/06 (eight weeks, -16%) about as fast as it rose, before climbing again; in 2022 the fall from 5.006 (06/13) back to the 3.6 pre-spike level took about five months versus three months up.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“Gas prices rise quickly, but they often take a long time to go down.”
Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump (MS NOW)“gas prices go up very fast. They come down very slow”
Leans right AI guessAsymmetric pass-through (rockets and feathers) is well documented in retail gasoline, with increases passed on within days and declines over weeks.
Leans partly right EIA regular gasoline, weekly lines 468-473The quick rise is clear in both shocks (a 0.49 jump in one week, 03/02-03/09/2026, and 02/28-03/07/2022), but the slow fall is not: in 2026 the national average dropped from the 05/11 peak of 4.500 to 3.777 by 07/06 (eight weeks, -16%) about as fast as it rose, before climbing again; in 2022 the fall from 5.006 (06/13) back to the 3.6 pre-spike level took about five months versus three months up.

Spring refinery maintenance and the switch to summer gasoline push pump prices up seasonally

Leans partly right

The monthly table shows the seasonal pattern the claim describes: May was higher than January in 15 of the 16 years 2010-2025 (e.g. 2024 3.075 to 3.603, 2019 2.248 to 2.859), but the series cannot separate refinery maintenance and summer-blend costs from demand or crude moves as the cause.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“THE CHANGE over to summer gasoline, refineries that are undergoing maintenance before the summer driving season.”
Trump says gas prices "will go down rapidly" when Iran war ends as Americans face rising costs (CBS Mornings)“before we get into the summer months when gas tends to get more expensive anyway.”
Leans right AI guessPump prices typically rise 20 to 50 cents from February to May as refineries do turnarounds and switch to costlier summer blends.
Leans partly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 28-47The monthly table shows the seasonal pattern the claim describes: May was higher than January in 15 of the 16 years 2010-2025 (e.g. 2024 3.075 to 3.603, 2019 2.248 to 2.859), but the series cannot separate refinery maintenance and summer-blend costs from demand or crude moves as the cause.

Core inflation is a better guide to the underlying trend than headline inflation

Leans right

Core inflation forecasts future headline inflation better than headline does, which is why the Fed watches it, but it understates the cost of living when energy stays high.

· ·

Asserts (1)Denies (1)Verdicts (1)

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% (CNBC Television)“WHY DOES IT LOOK AT THE CORE? BECAUSE IT THINKS THE CORE IS THE BEST WAY OF WHAT THE ADVANCED NUMBER OF WHERE THE HEADLINE”
DENIES They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number (Tim Talks Finance)“That is core inflation. It is inflation with the parts that hurt taken out.”
Leans right AI guessCore inflation forecasts future headline inflation better than headline does, which is why the Fed watches it, but it understates the cost of living when energy stays high.

Inflation was falling toward the Fed's target before the Iran war pushed it back up [2026]

Very likely right

Headline CPI fell from 3.0% (September 2025) to 2.4% in January and February 2026, then jumped to 3.3%, 3.8% and 4.2% in March-May as the gasoline index rose 24.9% in March alone; the series confirm the fall and the energy-driven rebound, while the attribution to the Iran conflict comes from outside these documents.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“WE WERE ACTUALLY HEADING TOWARDS THAT NUMBER EARLIER THIS YEAR. BUT THEN WITH THE IRAN WAR PRICES SHOT UP.”
Why inflation is heating up again across almost every category.mp4 (Yahoo Finance)“That is pretty significantly spiking back up with everything we see going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.”
Very likely right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 87-99Headline CPI fell from 3.0% (September 2025) to 2.4% in January and February 2026, then jumped to 3.3%, 3.8% and 4.2% in March-May as the gasoline index rose 24.9% in March alone; the series confirm the fall and the energy-driven rebound, while the attribution to the Iran conflict comes from outside these documents.
Leans right AI guessCPI ran near 2.5 percent in late 2025 and early 2026 before energy prices spiked from March 2026.

Whether tariffs raise the overall price level depends on how the Federal Reserve responds

Leans right

A tariff is an indirect tax whose wedge is resolved through higher prices or lower nominal incomes, and monetary policy determines which; in 2025 the Fed chose to look through it.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation; They're Worse (Tax Foundation)“whether they affect the overall price level depends on how the Fed responds”
Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“it's up to them to decide which of these two costs that we um we bear”
Probably right AI guessA tariff is an indirect tax whose wedge is resolved through higher prices or lower nominal incomes, and monetary policy determines which; in 2025 the Fed chose to look through it.
Unknown NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 1064-1074The paper identifies relative price effects with time fixed effects and explicitly holds the monetary-policy response and other general equilibrium forces fixed, leaving their quantification to future work, so it cannot say how the Fed's response changes the aggregate price-level outcome.

Tariffs fall more heavily on lower-income households as a share of their income

Leans right

Lower-income households spend a larger share of income, and more of it on traded goods, so distributional analyses of broad tariffs consistently find a regressive burden.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“the burden is uh larger as a share of income for lower inome households uh than higher inome households”
Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“One that lands hardest on the people with the least room to absorb it.”
Very likely right AI guessLower-income households spend a larger share of income, and more of it on traded goods, so distributional analyses of broad tariffs consistently find a regressive burden.

Tariffs reduce household real income whether the cost shows up as higher prices or lower nominal incomes

Leans right

Standard tax incidence: the tariff wedge lowers real purchasing power either through prices or through factor incomes.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation; They're Worse (Tax Foundation)“In both cases, real incomes fall.”
Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“You're either going to see a fall in factor incomes, wages or capital income, or you're going to see a rise in um consumer prices.”
Very likely right AI guessStandard tax incidence: the tariff wedge lowers real purchasing power either through prices or through factor incomes.

Renewable electricity does little to offset an oil supply shock because little oil is used for power generation

Leans right

Oil is a few percent of power generation in rich countries; its demand is in transport and petrochemicals, which electricity displaces only slowly through EVs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market (Bloomberg Originals)“Solar and oil don't really compete with each other because very little oil is used in the power sector.”
Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“You can't fix a 20% drop in global hydrocarbon supply with wind turbines in the short term”
Very likely right AI guessOil is a few percent of power generation in rich countries; its demand is in transport and petrochemicals, which electricity displaces only slowly through EVs.

Announced investment pledges overstate actual new investment because they include projects already planned

Leans right

Measured business fixed investment and foreign direct investment in 2025 ran near historical baselines, far below the pledged totals.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“independent reviews find no documentation supporting multi-trillion-dollar figures”
Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“this included projects that they were going to be doing anyway”
Very likely right AI guessMeasured business fixed investment and foreign direct investment in 2025 ran near historical baselines, far below the pledged totals.

Inflation was at a multi-decade high when the current administration took office [January 2025]

Almost certainly wrong

The 12-month CPI change was 3.0% in January 2025, down from the 9.1% peak of June 2022 and below every reading from April 2021 to October 2023; the multi-decade high was in mid-2022, two and a half years earlier.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years.”
JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“We inherited the worst inflation crisis in 48 years in the United States of America.”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 48-79The 12-month CPI change was 3.0% in January 2025, down from the 9.1% peak of June 2022 and below every reading from April 2021 to October 2023; the multi-decade high was in mid-2022, two and a half years earlier.
Very likely wrong AI guessCPI inflation was 3.0% in January 2025; the 40-year peak was 9.1% in June 2022.

The administration has secured well over ten trillion dollars of new investment in the US

Leans wrong

BEA recorded foreign direct investment of a few hundred billion in 2025 and trackers found roughly $600 billion of announced capital spending; the trillions are unverified pledges.

· ·

Asserts (1)Denies (1)Verdicts (1)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“I've secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States”
DENIES JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“his numbers about how much investment have been done uh uh are false”
Very likely wrong AI guessBEA recorded foreign direct investment of a few hundred billion in 2025 and trackers found roughly $600 billion of announced capital spending; the trillions are unverified pledges.

The US is experiencing a manufacturing and factory-construction boom under the current administration

Leans wrong

Manufacturing employment fell through 2025-26 and manufacturing construction spending declined from its 2024 peak.

· ·

Asserts (1)Denies (1)Verdicts (1)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“They're building factories and plants at levels we haven't seen.”
DENIES JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“He then said that we had a manufacturing boom. We haven't.”
Very likely wrong AI guessManufacturing employment fell through 2025-26 and manufacturing construction spending declined from its 2024 peak.

Tariffs are a very costly way to create jobs because consumer costs per job protected run far above wages

Leans right

Studies of the washing machine and steel tariffs put the consumer cost per job created in the hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“Each new factory job the tariff created cost shoppers over eight hundred thousand dollars a year.”
Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“This is a very expensive job creation program.”
Very likely right AI guessStudies of the washing machine and steel tariffs put the consumer cost per job created in the hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.

US diesel prices reached record highs during the Iran conflict [spring 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

Spring 2026 diesel peaked at 5.600 in May, below the prior record of 5.754 (Jun 2022); the series did set a record of 6.291 in Sep 2026, but not in spring.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump says 'tariffs don't cause inflation' despite latest inflation numbers (WHAS11)“diesel, the fuel used to move almost everything you can buy, is up 72%”
‘ZERO’ percent chance gas prices drop, Iran war ends after midterms: Ret. Lt. General (MS NOW)“THE NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR A GALLON OF DIESEL IS ALREADY THE HIGHEST IT'S EVER BEEN”
Almost certainly wrong EIA diesel, monthly lines 38-43Spring 2026 diesel peaked at 5.600 in May, below the prior record of 5.754 (Jun 2022); the series did set a record of 6.291 in Sep 2026, but not in spring.
Probably right AI guessGulf exports are distillate-heavy, so the Hormuz closure hit diesel hardest; the prior record was about $5.80 in June 2022.

High diesel prices are caused by Democratic environmental regulations

Probably wrong

Diesel sat at 3.49-3.82 through all of 2025 and Jan-Feb 2026 (below the 2022-2023 levels) under unchanged regulation, then jumped 32% in March 2026 (3.722 to 4.921) in the same month WTI rose 42%; the timing points to the oil shock, not to environmental rules that did not change that month.

· ·

Asserts (1)Denies (1)Verdicts (2)

Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise (13WHAM ABC News)“WHY HAS IT GONE UP? BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS HAVE NOT.”
DENIES Trump says 'tariffs don't cause inflation' despite latest inflation numbers (WHAS11)“Why has it gone up? Because the Democrats' environmental regulations have not.”
Very likely wrong AI guessThe 2026 diesel spike tracks the Hormuz crude and distillate shock; fuel regulations predate the move and changed little.
Probably wrong EIA diesel, monthly lines 40-43Diesel sat at 3.49-3.82 through all of 2025 and Jan-Feb 2026 (below the 2022-2023 levels) under unchanged regulation, then jumped 32% in March 2026 (3.722 to 4.921) in the same month WTI rose 42%; the timing points to the oil shock, not to environmental rules that did not change that month.

Higher long-term Treasury yields in 2026 mainly reflect stronger growth [2026]

Leans partly right

Growth is one driver, but the Fed chair also cites competition for capital and geopolitical commodity risk, and inflation above target lifts nominal yields too.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“First is economic strength. Part of the reason why we've seen, over the course of 2026, long-term yields go up is, the economy has strengthened.”
President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“it's a real rate issue. So it's because of growth. Growth here is strong.”
Leans partly right AI guessGrowth is one driver, but the Fed chair also cites competition for capital and geopolitical commodity risk, and inflation above target lifts nominal yields too.

The US labor market is at full employment [2026]

Probably partly right

Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026 and has stayed in a 4.1-4.3% range since March, near common estimates of the natural rate, but payroll growth was weak (+29,000, 45,000/month average) and the release does not define full employment.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“the unemployment rate is basically running consistent with full employment”
FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“Unemployment claims on a four-week moving average are running at levels consistent with full employment.”
Probably right AI guessUnemployment near 4.1% with jobless claims at full-employment levels matches most estimates of the natural rate.
Probably partly right BLS Employment Situation, September 2026 lines 25-27Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026 and has stayed in a 4.1-4.3% range since March, near common estimates of the natural rate, but payroll growth was weak (+29,000, 45,000/month average) and the release does not define full employment.

Economists' warnings that tariffs would tank the economy proved wrong [2025]

Leans partly right

No recession occurred in 2025, but prices rose and growth slowed; most mainstream forecasts predicted a drag, not a collapse.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“claiming that the Trump tariffs, they were going to tank the economy. So what's going on here? That's that's not the case right now”
WATCH: Trump says tariffs could replace income tax | 2026 State of the Union (PBS NewsHour)“Donald Trump called the economy correctly and 22 Nobel Prize winners in economics didn't. They got a totally wrong.”
Leans partly right AI guessNo recession occurred in 2025, but prices rose and growth slowed; most mainstream forecasts predicted a drag, not a collapse.

Real wages rose over the past year as pay outpaced inflation [January 2026]

Almost certainly right

Derived real average hourly earnings rose 1.2% in the 12 months to January 2026 (nominal AHE +3.7% vs CPI +2.4%).

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“wage growth outpaced inflation, meaning there was actual real wage growth this past year”
Real Wages Are Falling Going Into the Midterms (Steve Rattner)“Trump actually was performing better on wages for the first year and a half of this term.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1434-1434Derived real average hourly earnings rose 1.2% in the 12 months to January 2026 (nominal AHE +3.7% vs CPI +2.4%).
Probably right AI guessAverage hourly earnings rose about 3.7% against CPI of 2.4% in the year to January 2026.

There has been no inflation under the current administration [2025]

Almost certainly wrong

The 12-month CPI-U change ran between 2.3% and 3.0% in every month of 2025, and the index rose 2.0% from January to December 2025.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“PRACTICALLY NO INFLATION AND WE ARE TAKING IN HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.”
WATCH: Trump says tariffs could replace income tax | 2026 State of the Union (PBS NewsHour)“There was no inflation, tremendous growth”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 79-90The 12-month CPI-U change ran between 2.3% and 3.0% in every month of 2025, and the index rose 2.0% from January to December 2025.
Almost certainly wrong AI guessCPI rose about 2.7% over 2025; low by recent standards but not zero.

Shelter costs are still rising faster than overall core inflation [September 2026]

Almost certainly right

Shelter rose 3.2% over the 12 months to September 2026 versus 2.6% for all items less food and energy, and 0.4% versus 0.3% on the month.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“Shelter costs are up 3.2% over the year. Rent ticked up another 0.2 in September.”
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% (CNBC Television)“HOUSING UP ZERO FOUR. THAT HAD BEEN SOMETHING THAT WAS HELPING US AND IT'S NOT NECESSARILY HELPING US RIGHT NOW.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 185-186Shelter rose 3.2% over the 12 months to September 2026 versus 2.6% for all items less food and energy, and 0.4% versus 0.3% on the month.
Very likely right AI guessShelter rose 3.2% year on year against core CPI of 2.6% in September 2026.

Annual inflation under the previous administration peaked near twenty percent

Almost certainly wrong

The 12-month CPI-U change peaked at 9.1% in June 2022; no month in 2021-2024 exceeded that, and nothing approached twenty percent.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (2)Verdicts (2)

DENIES Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“Under Biden, the price index never got near 19%. It peaked at 9.1 in June 2022.”
DENIES Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“Biden era inflation did peak at 9.1% uh June 2022”
Almost certainly wrong AI guessCPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and was 3.0% in January 2025.
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 31-78The 12-month CPI-U change peaked at 9.1% in June 2022; no month in 2021-2024 exceeded that, and nothing approached twenty percent.

Producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices, pointing to further consumer inflation [autumn 2026]

Leans partly right

PPI rose 1.3% in September 2026, over 6% year on year, but producer prices pass through to CPI only partially and with lags.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“They jumped 1.3% the biggest monthly jump since March 2022, more than double what economists expected.”
Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“the producer price index is up 1.3% from September and more than 6% from a year ago”
Leans partly right AI guessPPI rose 1.3% in September 2026, over 6% year on year, but producer prices pass through to CPI only partially and with lags.

Tariffs could replace the federal income tax

Leans wrong

Tariffs raise roughly $200-300 billion a year against about $2.5 trillion of individual income tax; imports are too small a base.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“the tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax”
WATCH: Trump says tariffs could replace income tax | 2026 State of the Union (PBS NewsHour)“the tariffs paid by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replaced the modern day system of income tax”
Very likely wrong AI guessTariffs raise roughly $200-300 billion a year against about $2.5 trillion of individual income tax; imports are too small a base.

Tariffs raised US inflation by a modest amount spread over time rather than causing a surge

Probably right

Only about a quarter of a tariff reaches consumer goods prices, and the indirect channels build slowly, with marginal cost pass-through becoming significant only at nine to twelve months, so the full effect arrives over about a year rather than as a surge.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trade economist explains Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs (FOX 5 New York)“inflation hasn't risen as much as people expected. Prices didn't go up as much as people expected throughout the economy.”
Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“Inflation has roughly speaking been 1 to 2% higher than it would otherwise have been.”
Probably right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 138-146Only about a quarter of a tariff reaches consumer goods prices, and the indirect channels build slowly, with marginal cost pass-through becoming significant only at nine to twelve months, so the full effect arrives over about a year rather than as a surge.
Probably right AI guessFed and academic estimates put the 2025 tariffs' contribution at roughly one to two points on the price level spread over a year or more, not the surge some predicted.

Consumer spending has stayed strong despite tariffs, higher gas prices and policy uncertainty [2026]

Probably right

The FOMC's September 16, 2026 statement says domestic spending has been resilient despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and BEA lists consumer spending as a contributor to Q2 2026 GDP growth; neither document quantifies spending growth.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“through all of this, the American consumer continues to uh spend and continues to show remarkable resilience”
FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“While uncertainty remains elevated owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.”
Probably right AI guessRetail sales, GDP and the Fed's own assessment showed solid spending growth through 2026 despite the energy shock.
Probably right FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026 lines 8-8The FOMC's September 16, 2026 statement says domestic spending has been resilient despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and BEA lists consumer spending as a contributor to Q2 2026 GDP growth; neither document quantifies spending growth.

Tariff costs have led US businesses to hold back on hiring

Leans partly right

Business surveys report tariff-related hiring restraint and manufacturing payrolls fell, but overall unemployment stayed near four percent.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“they're registering a lot of a lot of discontent and they're not adding to payrolls”
Trade economist explains Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs (FOX 5 New York)“they were significantly affected by tariffs and they were holding back on employment and jobs”
Leans partly right AI guessBusiness surveys report tariff-related hiring restraint and manufacturing payrolls fell, but overall unemployment stayed near four percent.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are a major cause of high US diesel prices [autumn 2026]

Leans partly right

Russia was the second-largest diesel exporter and its export ban after refinery strikes tightened global supply, but the Iran war and Gulf disruption are the larger factor.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump faces ‘bipartisan pushback’ on diesel deal with Russia as he tries to lower prices (NBC News)“TO MAKE PROBLEMS FOR OUR FARMERS, OUR RANCHERS WITH DIESEL FUEL, BECAUSE RUSSIA SUPPLIES A LARGE PORTION OF THE DIESEL FUEL THROUGHOUT THE WORLD.”
How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy (PBS NewsHour)“Russia has had to ban its exports of diesel because the Ukrainians have been successful at destroying the refineries”
Leans partly right AI guessRussia was the second-largest diesel exporter and its export ban after refinery strikes tightened global supply, but the Iran war and Gulf disruption are the larger factor.

Tariff revenue is little changed by the Supreme Court ruling because replacement tariffs collect similar amounts [2026]

Leans right

Monthly customs receipts after the ruling stayed several times their 2024 level as Section 122 and 232 tariffs replaced the emergency ones, though below the 2025 peak.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (2)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bessent Says Tariff Revenue Will Be Little Changed in 2026 (Bloomberg Television)“the total amount of revenue the Treasury will collect this year will be little changed if changed at all”
Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“Customs is still collecting about twenty-three billion dollars a month. Before all this, in January twenty twenty-five, it was about eight.”
Leans right AI guessMonthly customs receipts after the ruling stayed several times their 2024 level as Section 122 and 232 tariffs replaced the emergency ones, though below the 2025 peak.

Inflation is low by historical standards [September 2026]

Very likely wrong

Headline CPI rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, above every reading in 2024 (max 3.5%) and 2025 (2.3-3.0%) and above the 2019-20 pre-pandemic pace of about 1.5-2.5%; only the 2021-23 spike (peak 9.1% in June 2022) and April-May 2026 (3.8%, 4.2%) were higher in this series.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“Again, we have very little inflation.”
Very likely wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 19-99Headline CPI rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, above every reading in 2024 (max 3.5%) and 2025 (2.3-3.0%) and above the 2019-20 pre-pandemic pace of about 1.5-2.5%; only the 2021-23 spike (peak 9.1% in June 2022) and April-May 2026 (3.8%, 4.2%) were higher in this series.
Leans wrong AI guessSeptember 2026 CPI was 3.7 percent and accelerating, above the roughly 2.5 percent average since 1990 and well above the Fed's 2 percent target.

Inflation today is substantially below its peak under the previous administration

Almost certainly right

The 12-month CPI-U change peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and was 3.7% in September 2026, less than half the peak.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“we inherited the worst inflation in history. Think of it. And now the last three months we have 1.7.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 48-99The 12-month CPI-U change peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and was 3.7% in September 2026, less than half the peak.
Leans right AI guessCPI inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022 and was 3.7 percent in September 2026, well below the peak though above target.

Tariffs lead foreign manufacturers to build plants in the US to avoid them

Leans partly right

Tariff-jumping investment is a real mechanism (Japanese auto plants in the 1980s), but announced pledges far exceed realized spending and tariffs on inputs deter other investment.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“in order to avoid tariffs, they're all building their plants in here because they don't want to pay tariffs.”
Leans partly right AI guessTariff-jumping investment is a real mechanism (Japanese auto plants in the 1980s), but announced pledges far exceed realized spending and tariffs on inputs deter other investment.

Tariffs have triggered a record wave of factory construction in the US [2026]

Leans wrong

Manufacturing construction spending peaked in 2024 on CHIPS and IRA projects and has since declined, and manufacturing employment fell through 2025; pledges are not spending.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“we're building more factories and plants in the United States right now than at any time in the history of our country.”
Leans wrong AI guessManufacturing construction spending peaked in 2024 on CHIPS and IRA projects and has since declined, and manufacturing employment fell through 2025; pledges are not spending.

Tariff revenue is large enough to fund a cash payment to every adult citizen

Leans wrong

Tariffs bring in roughly 300-400 billion dollars a year while a 5,000 dollar payment to about 260 million adults would cost about 1.3 trillion dollars.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“The reason is that we're taking in massive amounts of money through tariffs and record setting economic success.”
Leans wrong AI guessTariffs bring in roughly 300-400 billion dollars a year while a 5,000 dollar payment to about 260 million adults would cost about 1.3 trillion dollars.

Lumber tariffs keep US sawmills operating at only a small cost to lumber buyers

Leans partly right

Protection does shift some output to domestic mills, but NAHB estimates lumber tariffs add thousands of dollars to a new home and US lumber output has been flat with weak housing starts.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“if I took the tariffs off and let's say we got uh a penny off the cost of your lumber”
Leans partly right AI guessProtection does shift some output to domestic mills, but NAHB estimates lumber tariffs add thousands of dollars to a new home and US lumber output has been flat with weak housing starts.

Steel tariffs boosted domestic steel investment and jobs at only a small cost in higher steel prices

Leans partly right

The USITC found the Section 232 tariffs raised domestic steel output and prices modestly, but the same report found larger output losses in steel-using industries.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“the 25% steel tariff led to the prices paid in America by steel buyers to rise by 2.4 percent.”
Leans partly right AI guessThe USITC found the Section 232 tariffs raised domestic steel output and prices modestly, but the same report found larger output losses in steel-using industries.

The 2018-2019 tariffs did not raise overall US consumer inflation

Leans partly right

Tariffed goods rose 10-30 percent in price but were a small share of the basket, so the aggregate CPI effect was a few tenths of a point, hard to see in headline figures.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“When Trump levied tariffs in 2018 and 2019, consumer price inflation actually fell. It didn't rise.”
Leans partly right AI guessTariffed goods rose 10-30 percent in price but were a small share of the basket, so the aggregate CPI effect was a few tenths of a point, hard to see in headline figures.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 21-21The authors' earlier work found foreign exporters did not lower prices at all in 2018-2019, so the tariffs passed 100 percent into U.S. import prices; this shows the price-raising mechanism operated but the post does not measure the effect on overall consumer inflation, and those tariffs were far smaller than the 2025 ones.

Tariff revenue and domestic investment offset the costs tariffs impose on consumers

Leans partly right

Rebating tariff revenue returns the transfer part of the cost, but Fajgelbaum et al. found the 2018-2019 tariffs still left a net loss after revenue because of deadweight and retaliation losses.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry | Full Episode 2.21.25 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS (Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBS)“You can then use that money to give everybody who's earning less than $1 million a year a $1,200 cut in their income tax.”
Leans partly right AI guessRebating tariff revenue returns the transfer part of the cost, but Fajgelbaum et al. found the 2018-2019 tariffs still left a net loss after revenue because of deadweight and retaliation losses.

Short-run oil demand is so inelastic that a small supply loss causes a disproportionately large price spike

Leans right

Estimates of short-run oil demand elasticity cluster near -0.1, so a supply cut of a few percent implies a price move of tens of percent.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices (Wendover Productions)“So, why does an 8% contraction in supply lead to a 60% jump in price?”
Leans right AI guessEstimates of short-run oil demand elasticity cluster near -0.1, so a supply cut of a few percent implies a price move of tens of percent.

Pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz cushion the loss of supply when the strait closes

Leans right

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (about 5 million barrels a day to Yanbu) and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah line can carry a large share of Gulf exports around the strait.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices (Wendover Productions)“Collectively, these four pipelines provide considerable export capacity, dampening the impact of the strait's closure.”
Leans right AI guessSaudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (about 5 million barrels a day to Yanbu) and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah line can carry a large share of Gulf exports around the strait.

Traders' expectations move oil prices ahead of actual changes in supply and demand

Leans right

Oil futures price expected supply, so prices jump on announcements and shift on sentiment before physical flows change.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices (Wendover Productions)“the day-to-day movements follow a mix of narrative and reality.”
Leans right AI guessOil futures price expected supply, so prices jump on announcements and shift on sentiment before physical flows change.

Withdrawal of war-risk insurance can halt tanker traffic even where ships could physically pass

Leans right

Tankers cannot sail uninsured, and Joint War Committee listings with 72-hour cancellation have stopped traffic in the Red Sea and Black Sea in recent years.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices (Wendover Productions)“Regardless of the physical impediments, bureaucratic ones made it functionally impossible for oil to flow out of the Gulf.”
Leans right AI guessTankers cannot sail uninsured, and Joint War Committee listings with 72-hour cancellation have stopped traffic in the Red Sea and Black Sea in recent years.

Oil prices will stay above their pre-war level after the Iran conflict because markets now price in Gulf supply risk

Unknown

A prediction; risk premia faded within months after the 1991 Gulf War and the 2019 Abqaiq attack, but a demonstrated closure is a larger shock.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices (Wendover Productions)“The market will likely price this uncertainty in long-term.”
Unknown AI guessA prediction; risk premia faded within months after the 1991 Gulf War and the 2019 Abqaiq attack, but a demonstrated closure is a larger shock.

Gasoline prices are falling [spring 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

The NSA gasoline index rose 24.9% in March, 11.1% in April and 8.6% in May 2026 (254.887 in January to 396.961 in May), a 56% rise over spring; it only began falling in June (-9.7%).

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (1)Verdicts (3)

DENIES ‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“Gas prices continue to come down. Senator Tim Scott, that is simply not true.”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 475-480The NSA gasoline index rose 24.9% in March, 11.1% in April and 8.6% in May 2026 (254.887 in January to 396.961 in May), a 56% rise over spring; it only began falling in June (-9.7%).
Very likely partly right EIA regular gasoline, weekly lines 468-471Weekly regular gasoline rose almost continuously through spring 2026, from 3.015 (03/02) to a 4.500 peak (05/11), a 49% climb, and only turned down in the last weeks of May (4.490, 4.475) and through June (4.305 to 3.831); so the claim is wrong for March-mid May and right only if made from mid-May onward.
Leans wrong AI guessThe national average rose for nine straight weeks after the war began, from about 3 dollars to about 4.40 by early May 2026.

Being a net oil exporter does not shield US consumers from global oil price spikes

Leans right

US pump prices moved fully with the global crude shock: regular gasoline rose from 2.908 (Feb 2026) to 4.479 (May 2026), +54%, while WTI rose 58%, repeating the 2022 pattern (+40% gasoline, Feb-Jun); the series show consumers were not shielded but do not themselves state the US net-export position.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices (MS NOW)“IT'S TERRIFIC FOR REFINERS AND OIL COMPANIES AND IT'S NOT SO TERRIFIC FOR CONSUMERS”
Leans right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 65-65US pump prices moved fully with the global crude shock: regular gasoline rose from 2.908 (Feb 2026) to 4.479 (May 2026), +54%, while WTI rose 58%, repeating the 2022 pattern (+40% gasoline, Feb-Jun); the series show consumers were not shielded but do not themselves state the US net-export position.
Leans right AI guessUS gasoline prices track global crude benchmarks; domestic producers sell at the world price, so exports rise with it rather than holding pump prices down.

Monthly inflation has accelerated for several consecutive months [autumn 2026]

Almost certainly right

Seasonally adjusted monthly all-items CPI changes ran -0.4% (June), 0.1% (July), 0.4% (August), 0.6% (September 2026): three consecutive months of acceleration.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number (Tim Talks Finance)“Prices sped up four months in a row.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 45-47Seasonally adjusted monthly all-items CPI changes ran -0.4% (June), 0.1% (July), 0.4% (August), 0.6% (September 2026): three consecutive months of acceleration.
Leans right AI guessMonthly CPI went from -0.4 in June to 0.1, 0.4 and 0.6 percent through September 2026, and the annual rate rose from 3.4 to 3.7.

Inflation is caused by the government creating more money

Leans partly right

Sustained inflation needs monetary accommodation, but the 2021-2022 and 2026 episodes were driven largely by supply shocks in goods and energy, and money growth tracks prices poorly at short horizons.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number (Tim Talks Finance)“When the government needs more of them, it makes more of them. That is where inflation comes from in the first place.”
Leans partly right AI guessSustained inflation needs monetary accommodation, but the 2021-2022 and 2026 episodes were driven largely by supply shocks in goods and energy, and money growth tracks prices poorly at short horizons.

Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it a hedge against currency inflation

Leans partly right

The supply cap is real, but Bitcoin fell about 65 percent in 2022 while CPI peaked and trades like a risk asset, so it has not protected purchasing power over inflationary stretches.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number (Tim Talks Finance)“To find something the printer cannot reach.”
Leans partly right AI guessThe supply cap is real, but Bitcoin fell about 65 percent in 2022 while CPI peaked and trades like a risk asset, so it has not protected purchasing power over inflationary stretches.

The 2025 tariffs are the largest US tax increase in decades as a share of the economy

Leans right

Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab both put the 2025 tariffs near 1 percent of GDP, the largest increase since 1993, though court rulings have since trimmed them.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet (Mr Redman)“That makes it the largest tax increase as a share of the economy since 1993.”
Leans right AI guessTax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab both put the 2025 tariffs near 1 percent of GDP, the largest increase since 1993, though court rulings have since trimmed them.

Tariffs have measurably raised US core inflation [2026]

Leans partly right

Tariffs contributed about 2.9 percentage points to twelve-month inflation in the 67 non-oil consumer goods categories sampled by February 2026, but the estimate is a relative-price effect identified against less-exposed goods and covers goods only (20 percent of the basket), so it does not measure the effect on core CPI as a whole.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet (Mr Redman)“Core inflation hit 3.2% 2% that March, the highest reading since 2023.”
Leans partly right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 1031-1038Tariffs contributed about 2.9 percentage points to twelve-month inflation in the 67 non-oil consumer goods categories sampled by February 2026, but the estimate is a relative-price effect identified against less-exposed goods and covers goods only (20 percent of the basket), so it does not measure the effect on core CPI as a whole.
Leans right AI guessFed and Yale Budget Lab estimates attribute several tenths of a point of core goods inflation to tariff pass-through, a real but partial contributor.

The US average effective tariff rate reached its highest level since the 1930s [2025]

Probably right

The paper states the 2025 tariffs took U.S. import tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, with the average statutory rate peaking near 16 percent in September 2025; the duty rate actually collected ran at about two-thirds of the statutory rate.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet (Mr Redman)“By later that year, it had climbed past 16%, the highest level since 1936.”
Probably right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 191-191The paper states the 2025 tariffs took U.S. import tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, with the average statutory rate peaking near 16 percent in September 2025; the duty rate actually collected ran at about two-thirds of the statutory rate.
Leans right AI guessYale Budget Lab put the effective rate near 17 percent in late 2025, the highest since the mid-1930s, before the 2026 court ruling cut it.

The Iran war has raised US household borrowing costs through higher inflation and bond yields

Leans right

An oil shock lifts inflation expectations and Treasury yields, which feed mortgage and card rates; the size rests on Moody's model, which is not independently checked here.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“inflation is up, bond rates are up, the Fed is raising interest rates for the first time in three years.”
Leans right AI guessAn oil shock lifts inflation expectations and Treasury yields, which feed mortgage and card rates; the size rests on Moody's model, which is not independently checked here.

Airlines pass higher jet fuel costs to passengers through fares and fees

Leans right

Airline fares rose 22.4% in the 12 months to September 2026 (1.2% in the month) while fuel oil rose 74.2% and energy 20.4%, consistent with fuel costs passing into fares; the release reports the co-movement without attributing it.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“They've responded by cutting some of their cheaper flights, by raising baggage fees and lifting airfare.”
Leans right AI guessFuel is 20 to 30 percent of airline costs and carriers routinely raise fares and cut capacity when it spikes, as in 2008 and 2022.
Leans right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 185-187Airline fares rose 22.4% in the 12 months to September 2026 (1.2% in the month) while fuel oil rose 74.2% and energy 20.4%, consistent with fuel costs passing into fares; the release reports the co-movement without attributing it.

Gasoline has been above four dollars a gallon on more days this year than in any previous year [2026]

Very likely right

Counting weekly national-average readings at or above 4.00 as a proxy for days, 2026 has 24 such weeks through 10/12 (Apr-May 8, Jun 3, Jul 2, Aug 5, Sep 4, Oct 2) against 23 in all of 2022 (Mar 7 to Aug 8) and 7 in 2008, so 2026 already exceeds every prior year with eleven weeks still to run; the national weekly average is a proxy, not a daily count.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys (CNN)“gas has never been above $4 a gallon as many times in a calendar year as this year.”
Very likely right EIA regular gasoline, weekly lines 414-475Counting weekly national-average readings at or above 4.00 as a proxy for days, 2026 has 24 such weeks through 10/12 (Apr-May 8, Jun 3, Jul 2, Aug 5, Sep 4, Oct 2) against 23 in all of 2022 (Mar 7 to Aug 8) and 7 in 2008, so 2026 already exceeds every prior year with eleven weeks still to run; the national weekly average is a proxy, not a daily count.
Leans right AI guessAAA data back to 2000 show only 2008 and 2022 with sustained 4 dollar gas, and 2026 passed the 2022 count of 158 days by October.

Over recent decades US real hourly pay has grown only slowly, with frequent down years

Leans right

BLS production-worker earnings deflated by CPI rose about 23 percent from 1990 to 2026, about 0.6 percent a year, with a third of years negative.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Did US Pay Keep Up With Inflation? 1990–2026 (Real Data) (Compound Charts)“Real pay in this series is a slow grind with frequent setbacks.”
Leans right AI guessBLS production-worker earnings deflated by CPI rose about 23 percent from 1990 to 2026, about 0.6 percent a year, with a third of years negative.

Real wages fell during the 2021-2023 inflation spike before recovering as inflation cooled

Almost certainly right

Derived real average hourly earnings growth was negative every month from April 2021 (-3.4%) through April 2023 (-0.3%), bottoming at -3.3% in June 2022, and turned positive from May 2023 (+0.2%) onward as CPI inflation fell below nominal wage growth.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Did US Pay Keep Up With Inflation? 1990–2026 (Real Data) (Compound Charts)“Real year-over-year growth went negative in twenty twenty-one and stayed underwater into twenty twenty-three.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1378-1410Derived real average hourly earnings growth was negative every month from April 2021 (-3.4%) through April 2023 (-0.3%), bottoming at -3.3% in June 2022, and turned positive from May 2023 (+0.2%) onward as CPI inflation fell below nominal wage growth.
Leans right AI guessReal average hourly earnings fell year over year from April 2021 to early 2023 and regained the early-2021 level by late 2023.

Average wage figures can rise because low-wage jobs disappear rather than because pay increased

Probably right

In April 2020 average hourly earnings jumped 4.6% in one month (to 8.1% year over year) while private employment fell 15.3% (about 19.6 million jobs, concentrated in low-wage sectors), the textbook composition effect the claim describes; the series show the pattern though they do not decompose it.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Did US Pay Keep Up With Inflation? 1990–2026 (Real Data) (Compound Charts)“Averages can move for reasons that aren't a raise in your own paycheck.”
Probably right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 883-887In April 2020 average hourly earnings jumped 4.6% in one month (to 8.1% year over year) while private employment fell 15.3% (about 19.6 million jobs, concentrated in low-wage sectors), the textbook composition effect the claim describes; the series show the pattern though they do not decompose it.
Leans right AI guessThe 2020 jump in average hourly earnings was a composition effect from pandemic layoffs concentrated in low-wage services.

Cumulative inflation has cut the purchasing power of a dollar held since 1990 by more than half

Leans right

CPI-U rose about 163 percent from January 1990 to 2026, so a 1990 dollar buys about 38 cents of goods.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Did US Pay Keep Up With Inflation? 1990–2026 (Real Data) (Compound Charts)“Its purchasing power is crushed by cumulative inflation”
Leans right AI guessCPI-U rose about 163 percent from January 1990 to 2026, so a 1990 dollar buys about 38 cents of goods.

Importers stockpiled goods ahead of the tariffs, delaying the pass-through to consumer prices

Leans right

US imports surged to a record in early 2025 as firms front-ran announced tariffs, and inventories were run down through the year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“US importers loaded up on the on more far more foreign products than they needed in advance of Trump uh taxing them.”
Leans right AI guessUS imports surged to a record in early 2025 as firms front-ran announced tariffs, and inventories were run down through the year.

Tariffs on Brazilian goods are the main cause of the recent spike in US beef and coffee prices [early 2026]

Leans partly right

The 50 percent Brazil tariff added to coffee and beef costs, but coffee was already up sharply on Brazilian drought and beef on a cyclically small US cattle herd and import restrictions.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“coffee was up 18.3% both due to the Republican tariff taxes.”
Leans partly right AI guessThe 50 percent Brazil tariff added to coffee and beef costs, but coffee was already up sharply on Brazilian drought and beef on a cyclically small US cattle herd and import restrictions.

Tariffs strengthen the dollar enough to offset much of their cost to US buyers

Probably wrong

The dollar depreciated about 2 percent around the Liberation Day announcement rather than appreciating, and adding the exchange rate to the import-price regression leaves tariff pass-through at about 90 percent, so no exchange-rate offset is found.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (1)Verdicts (2)

DENIES New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“The US dollar has lost about 10% of its value against a basket of foreign currencies during Trump's second term.”
Probably wrong NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 552-560The dollar depreciated about 2 percent around the Liberation Day announcement rather than appreciating, and adding the exchange rate to the import-price regression leaves tariff pass-through at about 90 percent, so no exchange-rate offset is found.
Leans wrong AI guessThe dollar fell about 10 percent in 2025 after the tariffs rather than appreciating, and in 2018-2019 the exchange-rate offset was small.

Owners' equivalent rent measures a housing cost that no one actually pays

Leans partly right

OER is imputed rather than paid in cash, but it is the standard way to measure the consumption value of owner-occupied housing and tracks market rents with a lag.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes (South Gent)“no homeowner actually pays rent to themselves.”
Leans partly right AI guessOER is imputed rather than paid in cash, but it is the standard way to measure the consumption value of owner-occupied housing and tracks market rents with a lag.

The 2018-2019 tariffs left the US economy worse off even after counting tariff revenue

Leans right

Fajgelbaum et al. (2020) estimated consumer losses of about 69 billion against 61 billion of revenue plus producer gains, a net loss near 7 billion a year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“We collected money, but we lost more than we collected.”
Leans right AI guessFajgelbaum et al. (2020) estimated consumer losses of about 69 billion against 61 billion of revenue plus producer gains, a net loss near 7 billion a year.

Retaliation against US tariffs cut farm exports enough to require federal bailouts of farmers

Leans right

China's retaliatory tariffs cut US soybean exports sharply in 2018 and the USDA paid about 23 billion dollars in Market Facilitation Program aid in 2018-2019.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“paid farmers over 20 billion between 2018 and 2019 to keep them afloat.”
Leans right AI guessChina's retaliatory tariffs cut US soybean exports sharply in 2018 and the USDA paid about 23 billion dollars in Market Facilitation Program aid in 2018-2019.

Most academic economists hold that tariffs leave the average American worse off

Leans right

IGM Forum panels in 2018 and 2024 showed large majorities disagreeing that tariffs improve Americans' welfare.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) (FactsMatter)“large majorities disagree that terrorists make the average American better off.”
Leans right AI guessIGM Forum panels in 2018 and 2024 showed large majorities disagreeing that tariffs improve Americans' welfare.

The Iran conflict has sharply raised US diesel and heating oil prices [2026]

Probably right

US No 2 diesel went from 3.722 in Feb 2026 to 4.921 in Mar, 5.600 in May and 6.291 in Sep (+69% over the pre-war month), the jump coinciding with the March 2026 crude spike; heating oil is not in this series and the attribution rests on timing.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“WE KNOW DIESEL COSTS ARE UP ABOUT 75% SINCE THE WAR WITH IRAN BEGAN.”
Probably right EIA diesel, monthly lines 42-43US No 2 diesel went from 3.722 in Feb 2026 to 4.921 in Mar, 5.600 in May and 6.291 in Sep (+69% over the pre-war month), the jump coinciding with the March 2026 crude spike; heating oil is not in this series and the attribution rests on timing.
Leans right AI guessMiddle distillates were hit hardest because Gulf exports are distillate-heavy; fuel oil rose 15 percent in September 2026 alone per the CPI.

Monetary tightening does little to curb inflation caused by an oil supply shock

Leans right

Rate hikes work on demand and cannot add oil supply, though they can anchor expectations and limit second-round effects, as the Fed argued in 2022.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices (NBC News)“YOU CAN'T DO MUCH ABOUT THAT WITH A QUARTER POINT HIKE.”
Leans right AI guessRate hikes work on demand and cannot add oil supply, though they can anchor expectations and limit second-round effects, as the Fed argued in 2022.

The 2025 US tariffs did not produce the inflation spike that economists predicted

Leans partly right

Tariffs lifted consumer goods inflation in the sample from slightly negative to about 2 percent, a 2.9 point contribution spread over a year rather than a sudden spike; the post does not compare this to any economist forecasts and covers goods only.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

‘So wrong’: Expert slams US economists who claimed tariffs would cause inflation spike (News24)“there'd be a big spike in inflation in the US because of the tariffs and it's just simply not happened.”
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 20-20Tariffs lifted consumer goods inflation in the sample from slightly negative to about 2 percent, a 2.9 point contribution spread over a year rather than a sudden spike; the post does not compare this to any economist forecasts and covers goods only.
Leans partly right AI guessHeadline CPI stayed near 2.5-3 percent through 2025 rather than spiking, but core goods prices turned up and studies attribute several tenths of a point to tariffs; most forecasts were for a one-off 1-2 point level rise.

Tariffs are now a major source of federal revenue

Leans right

Customs receipts ran about 30 billion dollars a month in late 2025, roughly 5 percent of federal revenue and several times the pre-2025 level.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

‘So wrong’: Expert slams US economists who claimed tariffs would cause inflation spike (News24)“it raises 300 three or400 billion a year. That's a massive amount of money”
Leans right AI guessCustoms receipts ran about 30 billion dollars a month in late 2025, roughly 5 percent of federal revenue and several times the pre-2025 level.

The tariffs did not push the US economy into recession [2025]

Probably right

Private employment grew every quarter of 2025 (134.7 million in January to 135.1 million in December) and unemployment stayed between 4.0% and 4.5%, so no recession occurred in 2025; the series say nothing about tariffs' role either way.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

‘So wrong’: Expert slams US economists who claimed tariffs would cause inflation spike (News24)“Well that's why the economists have been so wrong because they clearly haven't.”
Probably right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1039-1050Private employment grew every quarter of 2025 (134.7 million in January to 135.1 million in December) and unemployment stayed between 4.0% and 4.5%, so no recession occurred in 2025; the series say nothing about tariffs' role either way.
Leans right AI guessUS GDP grew about 2 percent in 2025 with no recession, though estimates put the tariff drag at a few tenths of a point.

The US has been among the fastest growing economies in the OECD [2025]

Leans right

US growth near 2 percent in 2025 led the G7 and beat the OECD average of about 1.5 percent.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

‘So wrong’: Expert slams US economists who claimed tariffs would cause inflation spike (News24)“one of the fastest growing economists in the OECD”
Leans right AI guessUS growth near 2 percent in 2025 led the G7 and beat the OECD average of about 1.5 percent.

Memory-chip prices are feeding through into consumer electronics prices [2026]

Leans right

DRAM and NAND contract prices rose sharply from late 2025 on AI data-center demand, lifting PC and phone prices.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why inflation is heating up again across almost every category.mp4 (Yahoo Finance)“the memory chip pricing has been feeding its way through into some of those consumer electronics products”
Leans right AI guessDRAM and NAND contract prices rose sharply from late 2025 on AI data-center demand, lifting PC and phone prices.

Hotter-than-expected core inflation raises the odds of a Fed rate hike [autumn 2026]

Unknown

A forecast of Fed behaviour; depends on Fed guidance and later data.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

US Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Five Months (Bloomberg Television)“YOU CAN HAVE A LITTLE CHAT ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF A DECISION OF THE INTEREST RATE HIKE.”
Unknown AI guessA forecast of Fed behaviour; depends on Fed guidance and later data.

Gasoline prices have reached their highest level since the 2022 spike [spring 2026]

Almost certainly right

May 2026 regular gasoline averaged 4.479, the highest monthly price since July 2022 (4.559); no month between Aug 2022 (3.975) and Feb 2026 exceeded 3.840 (Aug 2023), and the weekly 4.500 on 05/11/2026 was the highest since 07/18/2022 (4.490).

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Trump says gas prices "will go down rapidly" when Iran war ends as Americans face rising costs (CBS Mornings)“Gas prices are now at their highest point since mid-2022”
Almost certainly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 42-47May 2026 regular gasoline averaged 4.479, the highest monthly price since July 2022 (4.559); no month between Aug 2022 (3.975) and Feb 2026 exceeded 3.840 (Aug 2023), and the weekly 4.500 on 05/11/2026 was the highest since 07/18/2022 (4.490).
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 429-483The NSA gasoline index reached 396.961 in May 2026, above every month since July 2022 (396.952) and below only the June 2022 peak of 430.142.
Leans right AI guessA 4.39 national average exceeds every reading since the summer of 2022, when gas peaked above 5 dollars.

A worldwide trade war reduces international trade and leaves every country worse off

Leans right

Retaliatory tariff rounds in the 1930s and 2018-2019 cut trade volumes and produced net losses for both sides in the studies that measured them.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Thomas Sowell Discusses The Trump Tariffs | Uncommon Knowledge | Full Interview on April 15, 2025 (Hoover Institution)“everybody loses because everybody follows suit and all that happens is that you get a great reduction in international trade.”
Leans right AI guessRetaliatory tariff rounds in the 1930s and 2018-2019 cut trade volumes and produced net losses for both sides in the studies that measured them.

Tariffs used briefly as bargaining leverage do far less harm than tariffs kept as long-run policy

Leans partly right

Prolonged protection compounds the losses, but 2018-2019 studies found trade-policy uncertainty itself cut investment even when tariffs were short-lived or merely threatened.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Thomas Sowell Discusses The Trump Tariffs | Uncommon Knowledge | Full Interview on April 15, 2025 (Hoover Institution)“So if this is just a set of shortrun PS for various various uh limited uh objectives limited in time, fine maybe.”
Leans partly right AI guessProlonged protection compounds the losses, but 2018-2019 studies found trade-policy uncertainty itself cut investment even when tariffs were short-lived or merely threatened.

The economic burden tariffs impose on households exceeds the revenue they raise

Leans right

Tariffs create deadweight loss as buyers substitute toward pricier domestic goods, so estimated consumer costs exceeded collected revenue in studies of the 2018 tariffs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“the sort of burden can can be larger than the revenue”
Probably right AI guessTariffs create deadweight loss as buyers substitute toward pricier domestic goods, so estimated consumer costs exceeded collected revenue in studies of the 2018 tariffs.

Heavy reliance on tariffs for government revenue makes an economy less efficient by misallocating resources

Leans right

Trade theory and cross-country experience show tariff-reliant economies protect low-productivity sectors; no rich country raises significant revenue from tariffs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“countries that try to raise a significant amount of revenue from tariffs have less efficient economies”
Probably right AI guessTrade theory and cross-country experience show tariff-reliant economies protect low-productivity sectors; no rich country raises significant revenue from tariffs.

Replacing income tax revenue with tariff revenue makes the federal tax system more regressive

Leans right

The US income tax is strongly progressive while a tariff burden is roughly proportional to consumption, so the swap shifts burden down the income scale.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“If you're cutting an income tax and you're expanding a consumption tax, that's going to be a regressive move.”
Very likely right AI guessThe US income tax is strongly progressive while a tariff burden is roughly proportional to consumption, so the swap shifts burden down the income scale.

Inflation-indexed transfer programs blunt part of the tariff burden on the lowest-income households

Leans right

Social Security, SNAP and similar benefits adjust with the CPI, offsetting part of a tariff-driven price rise for recipients, with a lag.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Distributional Effects of Tariffs (The Budget Lab)“many transfer programs are indexed on inflation”
Probably right AI guessSocial Security, SNAP and similar benefits adjust with the CPI, offsetting part of a tariff-driven price rise for recipients, with a lag.

US shale producers are not boosting output in response to the oil spike because price volatility deters investment

Leans right

Dallas Fed surveys show executives prioritising capital discipline; drilling responds to sustained, not volatile, prices.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“energy executives are refusing to significantly increase production, pointing to the absolute chaos of the current market”
Probably right AI guessDallas Fed surveys show executives prioritising capital discipline; drilling responds to sustained, not volatile, prices.

Advanced economies are much less vulnerable to oil shocks than in the 1970s because oil intensity of GDP has fallen

Leans right

Oil use per unit of real GDP has fallen by well over half since 1973, so the same price shock has a smaller macro effect.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“Since the 1970s, the oil intensity of the global economy has declined by more than 70%.”
Very likely right AI guessOil use per unit of real GDP has fallen by well over half since 1973, so the same price shock has a smaller macro effect.

The Iran conflict's energy shock has pushed US headline inflation higher [spring 2026]

Very likely right

Headline CPI rose from 2.4% in February 2026 to 4.2% in May as the energy index went from +0.5% to +23.5% year over year and core stayed at 2.5-2.8%, so an energy shock did push headline inflation higher in spring 2026; the series do not themselves identify the Iran conflict as the cause.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“Both the United States and the United Kingdom saw inflation accelerate to 3.3% in March.”
Very likely right AI guessEnergy is a large direct component of CPI, and the March 2026 jump followed the Hormuz closure.
Very likely right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 859-867Headline CPI rose from 2.4% in February 2026 to 4.2% in May as the energy index went from +0.5% to +23.5% year over year and core stayed at 2.5-2.8%, so an energy shock did push headline inflation higher in spring 2026; the series do not themselves identify the Iran conflict as the cause.
Leans right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 65-65Regular gasoline went from 2.908 in Feb 2026 to 3.638, 4.103 and 4.479 in Mar-May (+54%), a rise in a direct CPI component large enough to lift headline inflation mechanically; the CPI effect itself is not in this file, so confidence stays moderate.

Higher oil prices do not benefit the US economy overall because consumer costs outweigh producer gains

Leans partly right

Since the shale boom the net GDP effect of oil shocks on the US is close to neutral, with producer gains roughly offsetting consumer losses, but the burden falls on households while gains accrue to a few states and firms.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“the windfall at the wellhead doesn't necessarily reach the kitchen table”
Leans partly right AI guessSince the shale boom the net GDP effect of oil shocks on the US is close to neutral, with producer gains roughly offsetting consumer losses, but the burden falls on households while gains accrue to a few states and firms.

Pressuring gas station owners to cut prices does not materially lower pump prices

Leans right

Retail margins are a small, slow-moving part of the pump price, which tracks wholesale gasoline and crude.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“The problem is that you can't yell at inflation until it goes away.”
Probably right AI guessRetail margins are a small, slow-moving part of the pump price, which tracks wholesale gasoline and crude.

Oil prices will stay elevated for years after the Iran conflict ends because lost Gulf supply cannot be recovered

Unknown

Prediction; past Gulf disruptions saw prices normalise within a year or two, but this one has no precedent in scale.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! (Patrick Boyle)“the market might not return to equilibrium until 2030 due to this permanent loss of supply”
Unknown AI guessPrediction; past Gulf disruptions saw prices normalise within a year or two, but this one has no precedent in scale.

Tariffs have had only a modest effect on US inflation so far [mid-2025]

Leans right

The consumer price effect does not arrive at once: about half the direct effect is in place after three months and all of it by six, while the indirect effect more than doubles between six and twelve months, so by mid-2025 only part of the eventual effect (2.9 points on goods inflation by February 2026) had reached consumers.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“tariffs have not caused much inflation in the United States”
Probably right AI guessThrough mid-2025 headline CPI stayed near 2.7% and core goods rose modestly; front-loaded inventories and partial absorption by firms delayed the pass-through.
Leans right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 17-17The consumer price effect does not arrive at once: about half the direct effect is in place after three months and all of it by six, while the indirect effect more than doubles between six and twelve months, so by mid-2025 only part of the eventual effect (2.9 points on goods inflation by February 2026) had reached consumers.

Tariffs have slowed US economic growth [2025]

Leans partly right

Forecasters cut 2025 growth after the tariffs and business investment weakened, but actual output held up better than expected, so the drag was real but modest.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“So tariffs are bad for economic growth, and that prediction is holding up quite well so far.”
Leans partly right AI guessForecasters cut 2025 growth after the tariffs and business investment weakened, but actual output held up better than expected, so the drag was real but modest.

The 2025 tariffs weakened rather than strengthened the dollar because investors pulled back from US assets

Leans right

The dollar index fell roughly 10% in the first half of 2025 as foreign investors rotated out of US assets, the opposite of the textbook tariff effect.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“the prediction that the Trump tariffs would increase the value of the dollar is not holding up at all”
Probably right AI guessThe dollar index fell roughly 10% in the first half of 2025 as foreign investors rotated out of US assets, the opposite of the textbook tariff effect.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 8-8The dollar depreciated over the 2025 tariff period, which raised import prices further, but the post does not attribute the depreciation to tariffs or to investors pulling back from U.S. assets.

Tariff revenue is far too small to offset the deficit increase from the 2025 tax cuts

Leans right

CBO scored the 2025 tax law at over $3 trillion of added deficits against tariff revenue of a few hundred billion a year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump's trade war - 6 months later (Money & Macro)“there are bringing in a lot of money, but not enough to make up for Trump's massive tax cuts”
Very likely right AI guessCBO scored the 2025 tax law at over $3 trillion of added deficits against tariff revenue of a few hundred billion a year.

Consumer prices overall are falling under the current administration [late 2025]

Almost certainly wrong

The NSA CPI-U rose from 317.671 in January 2025 to 324.054 in December 2025 (+2.0%), with 12-month inflation of 2.7% in November and December 2025; the level was rising, not falling, even though December's unadjusted monthly change rounded to -0.0%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast.”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 79-90The NSA CPI-U rose from 317.671 in January 2025 to 324.054 in December 2025 (+2.0%), with 12-month inflation of 2.7% in November and December 2025; the level was rising, not falling, even though December's unadjusted monthly change rounded to -0.0%.
Very likely wrong AI guessCPI rose about 2.7-3% year over year through 2025; some items like eggs fell but the overall price level kept rising.

The US has no inflation [December 2025]

Almost certainly wrong

CPI-U rose 2.7% in the 12 months to December 2025 (seasonally adjusted monthly change +0.3%), so the US had inflation of close to 3%, not none.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“inflation is stopped, wages are up, prices are down”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 89-90CPI-U rose 2.7% in the 12 months to December 2025 (seasonally adjusted monthly change +0.3%), so the US had inflation of close to 3%, not none.
Almost certainly wrong AI guessCPI inflation ran near 3% in late 2025, above the Fed's 2% target.

Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [December 2025]

Almost certainly right

December 2025 regular gasoline was 2.894, 16.4% below the Biden-period mean of 3.461 and 41.3% below the Biden peak of 4.929; only 3 of the 48 Biden months (Feb-Apr 2021: 2.501, 2.810, 2.858) were lower.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon. in much of the country.”
Almost certainly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 41-56December 2025 regular gasoline was 2.894, 16.4% below the Biden-period mean of 3.461 and 41.3% below the Biden peak of 4.929; only 3 of the 48 Biden months (Feb-Apr 2021: 2.501, 2.810, 2.858) were lower.
Probably right AI guessThe national average near $3 in December 2025 was below the previous term's average, though under $2.50 held only in a few states.

Grocery prices are falling under the current administration [late 2025]

Very likely wrong

The CPI food index rose from 335.517 in January 2025 to 343.795 in December 2025 (+2.5%), with 12-month food inflation of 3.1% in December 2025; the series covers all food (including food away from home) rather than groceries alone, hence the slightly lower confidence.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles (KOMO News)“The price of eggs is down 82% since March. And everything else is falling rapidly.”
Very likely wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 751-762The CPI food index rose from 335.517 in January 2025 to 343.795 in December 2025 (+2.5%), with 12-month food inflation of 3.1% in December 2025; the series covers all food (including food away from home) rather than groceries alone, hence the slightly lower confidence.
Very likely wrong AI guessFood-at-home CPI rose about 2-3% in 2025; eggs fell sharply from a bird-flu peak but beef, coffee and other staples rose.

Gasoline prices will fall once the administration's Iran policy succeeds

Unknown

Prediction conditional on an undefined success; pump prices track crude, which depends on when and how Hormuz traffic resumes.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Young Voters Helped Trump Win. How Do They Feel Now? | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“I think if the Trump administration is successful, which I think they will be in these various areas, I think they will go down.”
Unknown AI guessPrediction conditional on an undefined success; pump prices track crude, which depends on when and how Hormuz traffic resumes.

Strategic stock releases, bypass pipelines and Chinese import cuts kept the Hormuz closure from producing the feared oil price spike

Leans right

Coordinated IEA stock releases, Saudi and UAE pipeline bypasses and a sharp drop in Chinese crude imports replaced much of the lost flow; prices peaked far below the $150-200 bank forecasts.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market (Bloomberg Originals)“Existing surplus, strategic national reserves, and commercial inventory offset nine million of that.”
Probably right AI guessCoordinated IEA stock releases, Saudi and UAE pipeline bypasses and a sharp drop in Chinese crude imports replaced much of the lost flow; prices peaked far below the $150-200 bank forecasts.
Leans partly right EIA WTI crude, monthly lines 47-52A large spike did occur: WTI rose 58% from 64.51 (Feb 2026) to 102.13 (May 2026) and was back at 97.31 in Sep, though it stayed below the Jun 2022 peak of 114.84 and the 2008 high of 133.88; the series cannot tell whether reserves, pipelines or Chinese import cuts capped it.

US strategic reserve releases and record exports cushioned Western fuel prices relative to Asia during the Hormuz closure

Leans right

US and Atlantic-basin supply is not routed through Hormuz, and SPR releases plus record exports added barrels, so Asian importers faced the tighter market.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market (Bloomberg Originals)“in relative terms, the West has been cushioned from the spike compared to some of the poorer nations”
Probably right AI guessUS and Atlantic-basin supply is not routed through Hormuz, and SPR releases plus record exports added barrels, so Asian importers faced the tighter market.

Bypass pipelines and alternative routes will permanently reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz

Unknown

Prediction; Gulf producers are expanding pipeline capacity but most Gulf export volume still has no alternative outlet.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market (Bloomberg Originals)“you won't necessarily need as many ships to go through Hormuz in the long term”
Unknown AI guessPrediction; Gulf producers are expanding pipeline capacity but most Gulf export volume still has no alternative outlet.

Tariffs reach consumer prices gradually over many months as pre-tariff inventory sells through and input costs propagate

Very likely right

Pass-through arrives with a lag: the direct effect on imports is almost immediate but the domestic channels keep building for the better part of a year as higher input costs move through supply chains, with much of the adjustment at nine to twelve months; pre-tariff inventory is not examined.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Why Prices Rise Months After a Tariff, Even on Products Made at Home (GoBrightward)“everyday items began rising a few months after tariffs took effect”
Very likely right AI guessFed studies of the 2025 tariffs found import prices moved within a month but shelf prices built over several months and input-cost effects took most of a year.
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 960-963Pass-through arrives with a lag: the direct effect on imports is almost immediate but the domestic channels keep building for the better part of a year as higher input costs move through supply chains, with much of the adjustment at nine to twelve months; pre-tariff inventory is not examined.
Leans right NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026) lines 14-14Surveyed firms were still adjusting prices more than a year after the tariffs were introduced, which the authors describe as consistent with research showing tariffs pass through to consumer prices incrementally over the better part of a year rather than all at once.

The effective tariff rate actually collected is well below the announced statutory rate because of exemptions and supplier switching

Very likely right

The duty rate actually collected ran at roughly two-thirds of the statutory rate throughout, about 8.5 percent against 13 percent at the end of the sample, because of exemptions, exclusions, special entry, drawback and importers shifting away from the most heavily taxed sources.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Why Prices Rise Months After a Tariff, Even on Products Made at Home (GoBrightward)“The collected rate averaged about 2/3 of the announced one, roughly 8 1/2% versus 13.”
Very likely right AI guessCustoms revenue divided by import value in 2025 ran well under the headline rates because of USMCA and other exemptions, timing and trade diversion.
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 268-280The duty rate actually collected ran at roughly two-thirds of the statutory rate throughout, about 8.5 percent against 13 percent at the end of the sample, because of exemptions, exclusions, special entry, drawback and importers shifting away from the most heavily taxed sources.
Probably right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 12-12The average duty rate is below the statutory rate because of exemptions (83 percent of Canadian imports are duty-free under USMCA despite a 35 percent tariff) and because importers shift away from high-tariff goods, with the gap widest in April-May 2025 when imports shifted away from China.

Tariffs persist for decades once imposed because protected industries lobby to keep them

Leans right

The 1964 truck tariff still stands and the 2018 tariffs were kept by the next administration; concentrated beneficiaries defend them.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“Tariffs are really hard to remove.”
Very likely right AI guessThe 1964 truck tariff still stands and the 2018 tariffs were kept by the next administration; concentrated beneficiaries defend them.

Tariffs on China pushed companies to diversify supply chains out of China

Probably right

After the 2018-2019 tariffs China's share of U.S. imports fell from nearly 25 percent to about 15 percent by 2024, and in 2025 it fell a further 5 points to below 10 percent, with Mexico and Vietnam gaining; the authors attribute the supply chain reorganisation to the higher tariff-inclusive import prices.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“it did motivate US companies to move out of China and made supply chains more resilient”
Probably right AI guessChina's share of US imports fell sharply after 2018 as sourcing shifted to Vietnam, Mexico and elsewhere, though often via Chinese-owned plants.
Probably right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 13-13After the 2018-2019 tariffs China's share of U.S. imports fell from nearly 25 percent to about 15 percent by 2024, and in 2025 it fell a further 5 points to below 10 percent, with Mexico and Vietnam gaining; the authors attribute the supply chain reorganisation to the higher tariff-inclusive import prices.

Tariffs have not changed China's trade practices

Leans right

China did not meet its Phase One purchase commitments and expanded industrial subsidies and export volumes after 2018.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)“But it didn't change much of China's behavior and in many ways they became more aggressive.”
Probably right AI guessChina did not meet its Phase One purchase commitments and expanded industrial subsidies and export volumes after 2018.

Rising credit card debt alongside a low savings rate shows households are running out of money rather than spending from strength

Leans partly right

Record nominal card balances partly reflect population and price growth, but a falling savings rate and rising delinquencies do indicate strain rather than confident spending.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump (MS NOW)“YOU RELY ON A CREDIT CARD WHEN YOU RUN OUT OF SAVINGS”
Leans partly right AI guessRecord nominal card balances partly reflect population and price growth, but a falling savings rate and rising delinquencies do indicate strain rather than confident spending.

Full Hormuz oil flows will take about a year to restore after the conflict

Unknown

Prediction; mine clearance, damaged facilities and insurer caution slow a restart, but the timeline depends on how the conflict ends.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump (MS NOW)“experts predict that it could be a year before we're back to the sort of capacity that we had”
Unknown AI guessPrediction; mine clearance, damaged facilities and insurer caution slow a restart, but the timeline depends on how the conflict ends.

The rise in prices since 2025 is a direct result of the administration's policies

Leans partly right

Tariffs and the Iran war's oil shock are administration choices that raised prices, but part of the rise reflects global oil markets and pre-existing trends.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers (Tom Powell Jr)“everything is more expensive now. Due due to a direct result of policies from the from the administration”
Leans partly right AI guessTariffs and the Iran war's oil shock are administration choices that raised prices, but part of the rise reflects global oil markets and pre-existing trends.

Without Fed accommodation, tariffs cause layoffs because nominal wages do not fall

Leans right

Downward nominal wage rigidity is well documented, so a real-income cut that is not absorbed by prices shows up in hiring and employment.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation; They're Worse (Tax Foundation)“firms have to adjust their compensation costs by laying off workers or reducing hiring”
Probably right AI guessDownward nominal wage rigidity is well documented, so a real-income cut that is not absorbed by prices shows up in hiring and employment.

Refunds of tariffs struck down by courts go to importers, not to the consumers who paid higher prices

Leans right

Customs refunds duties to the importer of record; there is no legal or practical channel to return them to retail buyers.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer (Finance Uncovered)“There's no mechanism to refund a higher grocery bill.”
Very likely right AI guessCustoms refunds duties to the importer of record; there is no legal or practical channel to return them to retail buyers.

Tariff pass-through studies cover only goods, a minority of consumer spending, so they cannot explain overall inflation

Very likely right

The 67 CPI items in the study cover 75 percent of non-oil consumer goods spending but only 20 percent of the overall consumption basket, and the authors say their relative-price estimates are not a forecast of aggregate CPI inflation.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds | Newstro Finance (Newstro)“Those categories represent about 1/5 of the overall consumption basket, so this analysis cannot by itself explain every household bill.”
Very likely right AI guessServices are about two thirds of the CPI basket and are largely untouched by tariffs, so goods-only estimates bound the tariff effect on headline inflation.
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 335-340The 67 CPI items in the study cover 75 percent of non-oil consumer goods spending but only 20 percent of the overall consumption basket, and the authors say their relative-price estimates are not a forecast of aggregate CPI inflation.
Probably right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 19-19The sample excludes services, about two-thirds of the consumer basket, and the comparisons across goods cannot establish how much of broader price movements was itself caused by tariffs.

Gains in the aggregate economy are accruing to the wealthy while lower-income households fall behind [2026]

Leans partly right

Spending and wealth gains have been concentrated in high-income households holding assets, while lower-income households report strain; the split is real but not a uniform decline for the lower 80%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump claims ‘roaring’ economy but these Americans aren’t feeling it (AP Archive)“the billionaires are doing great as always, but not the people who are making in the lower quintile”
Leans partly right AI guessSpending and wealth gains have been concentrated in high-income households holding assets, while lower-income households report strain; the split is real but not a uniform decline for the lower 80%.

Core inflation is close to the Fed's target [autumn 2026]

Probably partly right

Core CPI rose 2.6% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 2.4% in August and 0.6 point above the 2% target (which is set on PCE inflation, usually a few tenths below CPI); the FOMC on September 16 still described inflation as elevated and raised rates.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“The core inflation actually dropped last month and is approaching the Fed's target.”
Probably partly right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 24-27Core CPI rose 2.6% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 2.4% in August and 0.6 point above the 2% target (which is set on PCE inflation, usually a few tenths below CPI); the FOMC on September 16 still described inflation as elevated and raised rates.
Leans partly right AI guessCore CPI was 2.4% in August and 2.6% in September 2026, not far from 2%, but core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, ran about 3.2%.

Tariffs are driving a wave of domestic factory construction

Leans partly right

Some announced reshoring is real, but manufacturing employment fell in 2025 and tariff-exposed industries grew more slowly than lightly tariffed ones.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“these companies are building massive plants, all because of tariffs”
Leans partly right AI guessSome announced reshoring is real, but manufacturing employment fell in 2025 and tariff-exposed industries grew more slowly than lightly tariffed ones.

The US economy is growing faster than any economy in history [2026]

Almost certainly wrong

Real GDP grew at annual rates of 2.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q2 2026, ordinary trend-like growth, nowhere near a historical record.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“We have the greatest growth of any country, maybe ever in history”
Almost certainly wrong BEA GDP, Q2 2026 lines 12-12Real GDP grew at annual rates of 2.5% in Q1 and 2.2% in Q2 2026, ordinary trend-like growth, nowhere near a historical record.
Very likely wrong AI guessUS real GDP growth of roughly 2-4% is far below historical episodes such as China's decade of 10% growth.

A bilateral trade deficit is money lost to the trading partner

Leans wrong

A trade deficit is goods received in exchange for payment, not a loss; economists do not treat bilateral deficits as transfers.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“we've been losing, on average, $80 billion to $90 billion a year with Canada”
Very likely wrong AI guessA trade deficit is goods received in exchange for payment, not a loss; economists do not treat bilateral deficits as transfers.

US stock markets have set repeated record highs since the 2024 election [2026]

Leans right

Several autumn 2026 sources describe equities at or near record levels.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 (The White House)“Since the election, US stock markets have set all-time records”
Probably right AI guessSeveral autumn 2026 sources describe equities at or near record levels.

Underlying inflation did not improve over the summer of 2026 [summer 2026]

Very likely wrong

Core CPI 12-month growth fell from 2.8% in May 2026 to 2.6% in June, 2.5% in July and 2.4% in August before ticking back to 2.6% in September, and the June-August seasonally adjusted monthly readings (-0.0%, 0.2%, 0.3%) annualize to about 2%, so underlying inflation did improve over the summer before the September rebound.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
Very likely wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 379-387Core CPI 12-month growth fell from 2.8% in May 2026 to 2.6% in June, 2.5% in July and 2.4% in August before ticking back to 2.6% in September, and the June-August seasonally adjusted monthly readings (-0.0%, 0.2%, 0.3%) annualize to about 2%, so underlying inflation did improve over the summer before the September rebound.
Probably right AI guessCore PCE held near 3.2% and the three-month core run rate rose from about 2% to 3.4% by September.

Monetary policy cannot offset an energy price spike but can stop it spreading into broader inflation

Leans right

Standard central-bank doctrine: rates act on demand and expectations, not oil supply, and second-round effects are what policy targets.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices”
Very likely right AI guessStandard central-bank doctrine: rates act on demand and expectations, not oil supply, and second-round effects are what policy targets.

Inflation hurts households without financial assets the most

Leans right

Paycheck-to-paycheck households cannot offset price rises with asset gains and spend more of their income on energy and food.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“the least well off are the ones who have the most to gain from stable prices”
Very likely right AI guessPaycheck-to-paycheck households cannot offset price rises with asset gains and spend more of their income on energy and food.

Inflation pressures in 2026 are global rather than specific to the US [2026]

Leans right

The 2026 oil shock hit every importer and the ECB also hiked twice, though US tariffs are a US-specific source.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“most advanced economies are facing price pressures”
Probably right AI guessThe 2026 oil shock hit every importer and the ECB also hiked twice, though US tariffs are a US-specific source.

Inflation can be returned to target without raising unemployment [2026]

Unknown

A forecast; the 2022-24 disinflation happened without recession, but tightening into a supply shock has often cost jobs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective.”
Unknown AI guessA forecast; the 2022-24 disinflation happened without recession, but tightening into a supply shock has often cost jobs.

Tariff costs are absorbed in importer and exporter margins rather than passed to consumers

Very likely wrong

Border pass-through is about 90 percent, so exporters absorb little; domestic producers pass input tariffs into producer prices; and a 10 percent rise in tariff-induced pre-retail prices raises retail prices 5.6 percent, consistent with complete pass-through net of distribution margins rather than absorption in margins.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“The one place it does not go is to the consumer”
Very likely wrong NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 109-119Border pass-through is about 90 percent, so exporters absorb little; domestic producers pass input tariffs into producer prices; and a 10 percent rise in tariff-induced pre-retail prices raises retail prices 5.6 percent, consistent with complete pass-through net of distribution margins rather than absorption in margins.
Very likely wrong AI guessPass-through estimates for US tariffs run around 90% to importers and their customers; margins absorbed only a minority.

Firms cannot pass tariffs on because consumers are too stretched to accept higher prices

Probably wrong

Regional business surveys found most tariff-paying firms had already passed at least some of the cost on through higher prices, and nearly half still planned further tariff-induced increases a year on.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“if you could raise prices to consumers, you would just do it. You wouldn't need a tariff as an excuse.”
Probably wrong AI guessA tariff raises costs for every importer at once, shifting the whole market's price, unlike a single firm raising prices alone.
Probably wrong NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026) lines 6-6Regional business surveys found most tariff-paying firms had already passed at least some of the cost on through higher prices, and nearly half still planned further tariff-induced increases a year on.

Tariffs do not slow economic growth

Leans wrong

Most estimates put the 2025 tariffs at a drag of roughly half a point of GDP; no recession followed but growth was lower than otherwise.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“it doesn't slow the economy the way the mainstream economist said”
Probably wrong AI guessMost estimates put the 2025 tariffs at a drag of roughly half a point of GDP; no recession followed but growth was lower than otherwise.

Tariffs cut the trade deficit and boosted GDP [spring 2025]

Leans partly right

Imports fell in Q2 2025 after Q1 front-running, lifting measured GDP that quarter, but the 2025 goods deficit ended about equal to 2024.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“it has now been cut by more than half. And the big drop in imports seems to be where everyone's pointing.”
Leans partly right AI guessImports fell in Q2 2025 after Q1 front-running, lifting measured GDP that quarter, but the 2025 goods deficit ended about equal to 2024.

Government debt is sustainable when nominal GDP grows faster than the debt

Leans right

Debt dynamics depend on the gap between nominal growth and the deficit plus interest; this is standard public finance.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud (BlazeTV News)“the debt is growing more slowly than the economy, which means the debt to GDP ratio is going down”
Very likely right AI guessDebt dynamics depend on the gap between nominal growth and the deficit plus interest; this is standard public finance.

Inflation is low by historical standards [January 2026]

Probably right

Headline CPI was 2.4% in January 2026, tied for the lowest reading since February 2021 (2.3% in April 2025), far below the 9.1% peak of June 2022 and about the 2019-20 pre-pandemic pace (2.3-2.5%); it remained above the 2% target, and the series only spans 2019-2026.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“the CPI as the lowest we've had in five years”
Probably right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 19-91Headline CPI was 2.4% in January 2026, tied for the lowest reading since February 2021 (2.3% in April 2025), far below the 9.1% peak of June 2022 and about the 2019-20 pre-pandemic pace (2.3-2.5%); it remained above the 2% target, and the series only spans 2019-2026.
Leans partly right AI guessJanuary 2026 CPI of 2.4% was the lowest since 2021 and below the long-run average, but still above the Fed's 2% target.

Real wages never grew in any year of the Biden administration

Almost certainly wrong

Derived real average hourly earnings growth was positive every month from May 2023 through January 2025, including +0.8% in December 2023 and +1.2% in December 2024, so real wages grew in 2023 and 2024 after falling in 2021-22.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“That never happened under the Biden administration.”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1403-1423Derived real average hourly earnings growth was positive every month from May 2023 through January 2025, including +0.8% in December 2023 and +1.2% in December 2024, so real wages grew in 2023 and 2024 after falling in 2021-22.
Very likely wrong AI guessReal average hourly earnings fell in 2021-22 but rose in 2023 and 2024 as inflation dropped below wage growth.

Inflation fell in the year after the 2025 tariffs were imposed [January 2026]

Very likely right

Headline CPI fell from 3.0% in January 2025 (2.8% in February) to 2.4% in January 2026 and core from 3.3% to 2.5%, though headline dipped to 2.3% in April 2025 and rebounded to 3.0% by September 2025 before easing; the series settle the direction of the rate, not any causal role of tariffs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“the rate has actually gone down, not up, even since the tariffs were implemented”
Very likely right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 79-91Headline CPI fell from 3.0% in January 2025 (2.8% in February) to 2.4% in January 2026 and core from 3.3% to 2.5%, though headline dipped to 2.3% in April 2025 and rebounded to 3.0% by September 2025 before easing; the series settle the direction of the rate, not any causal role of tariffs.
Probably right AI guessHeadline CPI fell from 3.0% in January 2025 to about 2.4% in January 2026, though goods prices rose in tariffed categories.

Consumer prices only fall outright during a recession or depression

Probably partly right

Single-month declines in the all-items index occur outside recessions (seasonally adjusted -0.4% in June 2026; unadjusted declines in late 2022 and late 2023), but in 2019-2026 the 12-month change never went negative, not even in the 2020 recession (low of 0.1% in May 2020), so sustained outright deflation did not occur in any condition covered.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“the only times prices will actually decrease is if you have a recession or a depression”
Probably partly right AI guessBroad deflation has accompanied severe downturns, but prices also dipped briefly in 2015 on an oil crash without a recession.
Probably partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 19-99Single-month declines in the all-items index occur outside recessions (seasonally adjusted -0.4% in June 2026; unadjusted declines in late 2022 and late 2023), but in 2019-2026 the 12-month change never went negative, not even in the 2020 recession (low of 0.1% in May 2020), so sustained outright deflation did not occur in any condition covered.

Gasoline and egg prices are down under the current administration [early 2026]

Probably partly right

The gasoline half holds for early 2026: Jan and Feb 2026 regular gasoline (2.809, 2.908) were 8.7% and 5.5% below the January 2025 inauguration-month price of 3.076, though the gap vanished in March 2026 (3.638); the egg half is outside this series.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM (The Right-Wing Populist)“Gas prices are down, egg prices are dramatically down.”
Probably right AI guessEgg prices fell sharply from the 2025 bird-flu peak and gasoline averaged lower in 2025 than in 2024, before the Iran war.
Probably partly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 46-47The gasoline half holds for early 2026: Jan and Feb 2026 regular gasoline (2.809, 2.908) were 8.7% and 5.5% below the January 2025 inauguration-month price of 3.076, though the gap vanished in March 2026 (3.638); the egg half is outside this series.

Grocery and housing prices remain high even as the inflation rate has fallen [late 2025]

Very likely right

By December 2025 the shelter index was 420.134, 28% above December 2020 (327.702) and still rising 3.2% a year, and the food index was 343.795, 27% above December 2020 (270.023), while headline inflation had fallen to 2.7%; falling inflation left price levels elevated.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“WHEN YOU GO TO THE SUPERMARKET A LOT OF THINGS ARE STILL GOING UP. PRICES ARE STILL HIGH IN A LOT OF AREAS.”
Very likely right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 606-666By December 2025 the shelter index was 420.134, 28% above December 2020 (327.702) and still rising 3.2% a year, and the food index was 343.795, 27% above December 2020 (270.023), while headline inflation had fallen to 2.7%; falling inflation left price levels elevated.
Very likely right AI guessPrice levels stay elevated after a disinflation; food at home and shelter were both still rising in late 2025.

Removing the tariffs would be good for the US economy

Leans right

Most models find the 2025 tariffs a net drag on output and real incomes, so removing them raises GDP modestly.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“THE SUPREME COURT WILL RULE AGAINST HIM ON TARIFFS AND THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY”
Probably right AI guessMost models find the 2025 tariffs a net drag on output and real incomes, so removing them raises GDP modestly.

Cooling inflation in late 2025 reflected a slowing economy rather than policy success [late 2025]

Leans partly right

Unemployment drifted up to about 4.6% and oil fell in 2025, both disinflationary, alongside the fading of the 2021-22 shock.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“ONE REASON INFLATION MIGHT BE COMING DOWN IS BECAUSE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS AT 4.6%, SAME FOR OIL.”
Leans partly right AI guessUnemployment drifted up to about 4.6% and oil fell in 2025, both disinflationary, alongside the fading of the 2021-22 shock.

Tariff revenue is small relative to federal interest costs and the deficit

Leans right

Tariffs raised roughly $200-300 billion a year against about $1.2 trillion of interest and a near-$2 trillion deficit.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“WE BROUGHT IN ABOUT $200 BILLION IN TARIFF REVENUE FOR THE FULL FISCAL YEAR. SO THAT COVERS TOO -- TWO MONTHS ON INTEREST”
Very likely right AI guessTariffs raised roughly $200-300 billion a year against about $1.2 trillion of interest and a near-$2 trillion deficit.

Consumer sentiment about current conditions hit a record low [December 2025]

Leans right

The University of Michigan current-conditions index set a record low in December 2025 even as expectations improved.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push (Fox Business)“CURRENT CONDITIONS SLIDE TO A RECORD LOW.”
Probably right AI guessThe University of Michigan current-conditions index set a record low in December 2025 even as expectations improved.

Cumulative price increases under the current administration are far smaller than under the previous one [2026]

Very likely partly right

CPI-U rose 21.4% from January 2021 to January 2025 (261.582 to 317.671) and 6.1% from January 2025 to September 2026 (to 336.94); the cumulative figure is far smaller, but it covers 20 months versus 48, and annualized the pace is 3.6% versus 5.0%, a smaller gap.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels (Squirrelly Economics)“Prices rose about 21% over Biden's 4 years. In the head nut's first 20 months this term, about 5.4.”
Very likely right AI guessCPI rose about 21% over 2021-24 versus about 5% in the first 20 months of 2025-26, a slower pace as well as a shorter span.
Very likely partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 31-99CPI-U rose 21.4% from January 2021 to January 2025 (261.582 to 317.671) and 6.1% from January 2025 to September 2026 (to 336.94); the cumulative figure is far smaller, but it covers 20 months versus 48, and annualized the pace is 3.6% versus 5.0%, a smaller gap.

Tariffs have not reduced the overall US trade deficit [2025]

Leans right

The 2025 goods deficit was roughly unchanged at about $1.2 trillion as trade shifted from China to Mexico and Asia.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“It was almost exactly the same size as the trade deficit that it had in 2024.”
Very likely right AI guessThe 2025 goods deficit was roughly unchanged at about $1.2 trillion as trade shifted from China to Mexico and Asia.

Tariffs shifted US imports away from China rather than cutting imports overall

Leans partly right

China's share of U.S. non-oil imports fell another 5 points to below 10 percent in January-November 2025 while Mexico and Vietnam gained the most share; the post documents the shift but says nothing about whether total imports fell.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“reshuffle trade away from China and towards Mexico and other Asian countries more than reducing the aggregate trade deficit”
Very likely right AI guessCustoms data show China's share of US imports fell while Mexico, Vietnam and others rose.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 13-13China's share of U.S. non-oil imports fell another 5 points to below 10 percent in January-November 2025 while Mexico and Vietnam gained the most share; the post documents the shift but says nothing about whether total imports fell.

Tariffs have not revived US manufacturing employment [2025]

Probably right

Manufacturing employment hit a recent low in December 2025 according to BLS, so it declined over 2025; the 72,000 recovery since then is a 2026 development and the release says nothing about tariffs as the cause.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“in the last year, the US lost more than 80,000 manufacturing jobs. That's even as these tariffs went into place.”
Very likely right AI guessBLS manufacturing payrolls declined through 2025.
Probably right BLS Employment Situation, September 2026 lines 73-75Manufacturing employment hit a recent low in December 2025 according to BLS, so it declined over 2025; the 72,000 recovery since then is a 2026 development and the release says nothing about tariffs as the cause.

Industries facing higher tariffs grew more slowly than lightly tariffed ones [2025]

Leans right

Industrial production split by tariff exposure showed autos and metals lagging pharma and electronics in 2025.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“any growth that was there was really driven by the lower-tariffed industries, things like pharmaceuticals, electronics.”
Probably right AI guessIndustrial production split by tariff exposure showed autos and metals lagging pharma and electronics in 2025.

Most lost US manufacturing jobs are due to technology, not trade

Leans partly right

Automation explains most of the long-run decline, but China-shock studies attribute a substantial share of 2000s losses to trade.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check (Bloomberg Originals)“The principle driver of that trend is not trade, it's technology.”
Probably partly right AI guessAutomation explains most of the long-run decline, but China-shock studies attribute a substantial share of 2000s losses to trade.

Most consumer prices are falling [October 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

In September 2026 the all-items index rose 0.6% and core 0.3%, with recreation, used cars, education, airline fares, medical care and apparel all up; BLS says communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (1)Verdicts (2)

DENIES Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“he said that all your prices are falling fast. Well, the vast majority of prices continue to increase.”
Almost certainly wrong AI guessThe September 2026 CPI rose 0.6% on the month with most categories up; only food at home dipped.
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 20-22In September 2026 the all-items index rose 0.6% and core 0.3%, with recreation, used cars, education, airline fares, medical care and apparel all up; BLS says communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased.

Average consumer prices are lower than when the current administration took office [October 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

The NSA CPI-U rose from 317.671 in January 2025 to 336.94 in September 2026, a 6.1% increase in the average price level.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (1)Verdicts (2)

DENIES Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“Uh that is not even close to true. Average consumer prices according to the CPI are 5.4% higher.”
Almost certainly wrong AI guessThe CPI level rose about 5% between January 2025 and September 2026.
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 79-99The NSA CPI-U rose from 317.671 in January 2025 to 336.94 in September 2026, a 6.1% increase in the average price level.

Inflation has stayed above three percent since the Iran war began [October 2026]

Very likely right

Headline 12-month CPI was 3.3% in March 2026, 3.8% April, 4.2% May, 3.5% June, 3.4% July, 3.4% August and 3.7% September, every month since the March 2026 gasoline jump (+24.9%) that marks the conflict's onset in the price data; the war's start date itself is not in these documents.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers (CNN)“It hasn't been as low as three since the Iran war started in March.”
Very likely right AI guessCPI ran 3.3-3.7% from spring through September 2026 after 3.0% in January 2025 and lower readings in 2025.
Very likely right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 91-99Headline 12-month CPI was 3.3% in March 2026, 3.8% April, 4.2% May, 3.5% June, 3.4% July, 3.4% August and 3.7% September, every month since the March 2026 gasoline jump (+24.9%) that marks the conflict's onset in the price data; the war's start date itself is not in these documents.

Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz despite the declared end of the war [autumn 2026]

Unknown

Depends on shipping data; a CNBC traffic analysis showed a three-month low in transits while the administration claims total control.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Amos Hochstein on the Iran war’s impact on energy: Oil prices are not reflecting reality (CNBC Television)“IRAN TOOK CONTROL OF THE STRAITS, RIGHT BY CLOSING THEM NOW.”
Unknown AI guessDepends on shipping data; a CNBC traffic analysis showed a three-month low in transits while the administration claims total control.

Oil prices are being held below fundamentals by strategic reserve releases and political headlines [autumn 2026]

Unknown

A market call; reserve draws do add temporary supply, but whether the price is wrong cannot be settled from the data cited.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Amos Hochstein on the Iran war’s impact on energy: Oil prices are not reflecting reality (CNBC Television)“THE MARKET IS TREATING THE SPR AS THOUGH THAT'S PRODUCTION. IT'S NOT PRODUCTION, IT'S NOT RENEWABLE, IT'S NOT SUSTAINABLE.”
Unknown AI guessA market call; reserve draws do add temporary supply, but whether the price is wrong cannot be settled from the data cited.

Gasoline prices are high relative to the current crude oil price [autumn 2026]

Very likely right

Regular gasoline minus the crude cost per gallon (WTI/42) was 2.04 in Sep 2026 (4.355 minus 97.31/42) and about 2.02-2.06 every month since June 2026, against 1.54-1.71 in Sep 2023, Sep 2024 and Sep 2025 and 2.20 at the Jun 2022 peak, so the retail margin over crude is roughly 0.35-0.50 per gallon above its recent norm; October crude is not yet in the file.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Amos Hochstein on the Iran war’s impact on energy: Oil prices are not reflecting reality (CNBC Television)“GASOLINE SHOULD BE LOWER AT AN $81 OIL PRICE. BUT GASOLINE IS OVER $4.”
Very likely right EIA WTI crude, monthly lines 51-52Regular gasoline minus the crude cost per gallon (WTI/42) was 2.04 in Sep 2026 (4.355 minus 97.31/42) and about 2.02-2.06 every month since June 2026, against 1.54-1.71 in Sep 2023, Sep 2024 and Sep 2025 and 2.20 at the Jun 2022 peak, so the retail margin over crude is roughly 0.35-0.50 per gallon above its recent norm; October crude is not yet in the file.
Probably right AI guessHistorically $80 WTI maps to roughly $3.30-3.60 gasoline; refined-product tightness and wide crack spreads kept pump prices above that in 2026.

A return to war with Iran would raise US consumer prices sharply [autumn 2026]

Unknown

A conditional forecast about a renewed conflict.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Amos Hochstein on the Iran war’s impact on energy: Oil prices are not reflecting reality (CNBC Television)“THE CONSUMER PRICES ARE GOING TO GO UP MUCH HIGHER, MUCH FASTER.”
Unknown AI guessA conditional forecast about a renewed conflict.

The US strategic petroleum reserve is too depleted to keep offsetting supply losses [autumn 2026]

Leans partly right

The SPR fell below 300 million barrels, its lowest since the 1980s, which constrains but does not end releases.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Amos Hochstein on the Iran war’s impact on energy: Oil prices are not reflecting reality (CNBC Television)“WE'RE HAVING A HARDER TIME RELEASING OUT OF THE SPR BECAUSE WHY THEY'RE LOWER SO THEY'RE CONSTRAINED.”
Leans partly right AI guessThe SPR fell below 300 million barrels, its lowest since the 1980s, which constrains but does not end releases.

Inflation rose after the 2025 tariffs took effect [2026]

Probably partly right

Headline CPI rose from 2.3% in April 2025 to 3.0% by September 2025 and 3.7% by September 2026, and core goods went from -0.1% (March 2025) to +1.5% (September 2025); but core CPI is lower now (2.6%) than when the tariffs took effect (2.8%) and the 2026 headline rise is energy-driven, so the rise is real but mostly not in the categories tariffs touch.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories (Face the Nation)“Inflation also jumped after those tariffs”
Probably partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1231-1251Headline CPI rose from 2.3% in April 2025 to 3.0% by September 2025 and 3.7% by September 2026, and core goods went from -0.1% (March 2025) to +1.5% (September 2025); but core CPI is lower now (2.6%) than when the tariffs took effect (2.8%) and the 2026 headline rise is energy-driven, so the rise is real but mostly not in the categories tariffs touch.
Leans partly right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 1019-1021Twelve-month inflation in the sampled consumer goods rose to 2.0 percent by February 2026 against a no-tariff counterfactual of minus 0.9 percent, a 2.9 point tariff contribution; the paper measures goods in the sample only and does not speak to headline inflation.
Leans partly right AI guessTariffs lifted goods prices, but CPI fell through 2025 and the 2026 jump coincides with the Iran oil shock.

The US economy is resilient with no recession in sight [early 2026]

Very likely right

Real GDP grew 2.5% annualized in Q1 2026 and 2.2% in Q2, with consumer spending, investment and exports contributing, and unemployment stayed at 4.3-4.4% in early 2026; no contraction appears in the data for the period.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Economy looks strong despite recession fears: Jobs, inflation & Trump tariffs explained (ABC 7 News - WJLA)“It's proving to be surprisingly resilient.”
Very likely right BEA GDP, Q2 2026 lines 12-12Real GDP grew 2.5% annualized in Q1 2026 and 2.2% in Q2, with consumer spending, investment and exports contributing, and unemployment stayed at 4.3-4.4% in early 2026; no contraction appears in the data for the period.
Probably right AI guessGrowth and payrolls held up in late 2025 and early 2026 with unemployment near 4.3%.

Recent job gains are concentrated in health care, signalling underlying weakness [early 2026]

Very likely right

Over the 12 months to September 2026 health care added an average 33,000 jobs a month against 45,000 for total nonfarm payrolls, about three quarters of all gains, with employment in all other major industries little changed; the release measures the concentration, and the 'weakness' reading is the claim's interpretation of that narrow base.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Economy looks strong despite recession fears: Jobs, inflation & Trump tariffs explained (ABC 7 News - WJLA)“almost all the jobs created, uh, in this last report were in the health care sector”
Very likely right BLS Employment Situation, September 2026 lines 60-67Over the 12 months to September 2026 health care added an average 33,000 jobs a month against 45,000 for total nonfarm payrolls, about three quarters of all gains, with employment in all other major industries little changed; the release measures the concentration, and the 'weakness' reading is the claim's interpretation of that narrow base.
Probably right AI guessBLS payrolls in 2025-26 showed health care and social assistance accounting for most net gains.

Interest rates are stable and likely to fall [early 2026]

Probably wrong

On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4%, the opposite of the predicted fall; the statement does not show the early-2026 rate path, so this only settles the prediction's outcome.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Economy looks strong despite recession fears: Jobs, inflation & Trump tariffs explained (ABC 7 News - WJLA)“Interest rates are stable and hopefully coming down.”
Probably wrong AI guessThe Fed held in January 2026 and then raised rates in September 2026 as inflation climbed.
Probably wrong FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026 lines 7-7On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4%, the opposite of the predicted fall; the statement does not show the early-2026 rate path, so this only settles the prediction's outcome.

The new Fed chair is a hawk who wants to cut rates aggressively

Leans wrong

A hawk favours higher rates to fight inflation; Warsh went on to raise rates in September 2026.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Economy looks strong despite recession fears: Jobs, inflation & Trump tariffs explained (ABC 7 News - WJLA)“he is what is known as an interest rate hawk, meaning he aggressively wants to bring interest rates down”
Very likely wrong AI guessA hawk favours higher rates to fight inflation; Warsh went on to raise rates in September 2026.

Energy prices will fall rapidly once the Iran war ends [October 2026]

Unknown

A prediction; a quick fall depends on Gulf shipping reopening and refined-product supply recovering.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

President Trump Holds Press Gaggle Before Flight to Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“Iran will end very shortly. It's going to be over very shortly. And your energy prices will fall very rapidly, very fast.”
Unknown AI guessA prediction; a quick fall depends on Gulf shipping reopening and refined-product supply recovering.

Oil is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [October 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

WTI averaged 97.31 in Sep 2026 (latest month), 22% above the Biden-period (Feb 2021-Jan 2025) mean of 79.74 and 15% below the Biden peak of 114.84 (Jun 2022); only 5 of the 48 Biden months (Mar-Jul 2022) were higher than Sep 2026, so oil is dearer than under the typical Biden-era month.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

President Trump Holds Press Gaggle Before Flight to Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 (Right Side Broadcasting Network)“Oil was higher under Biden than it is under Trump.”
Almost certainly wrong EIA WTI crude, monthly lines 46-52WTI averaged 97.31 in Sep 2026 (latest month), 22% above the Biden-period (Feb 2021-Jan 2025) mean of 79.74 and 15% below the Biden peak of 114.84 (Jun 2022); only 5 of the 48 Biden months (Mar-Jul 2022) were higher than Sep 2026, so oil is dearer than under the typical Biden-era month.
Leans partly right AI guessWTI near $80 in October 2026 is below the 2022 peak near $100 but about level with the 2021-24 average of roughly $78.

Inflation is about to overtake wage growth, cutting real purchasing power [spring 2026]

Almost certainly right

Derived real average hourly earnings growth went from +1.2% in February 2026 to +0.1% in March, -0.2% in April and -0.8% in May as CPI inflation (3.3%, 3.8%, 4.2%) overtook nominal wage growth (3.4%, 3.6%, 3.3%).

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Inflation Is Catching Up to Wages — Are Americans Losing Buying Power? (Econ with Sarah, PhD)“We are expeditiously close to the point where we will see the rate of change of inflation supersedes the average growth in wages.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1435-1438Derived real average hourly earnings growth went from +1.2% in February 2026 to +0.1% in March, -0.2% in April and -0.8% in May as CPI inflation (3.3%, 3.8%, 4.2%) overtook nominal wage growth (3.4%, 3.6%, 3.3%).
Very likely right AI guessBy mid-2026 real average hourly earnings turned negative year on year and stayed negative for six months.

When inflation outruns wages, workers demand raises that push prices up further in a wage-price spiral

Leans partly right

The mechanism exists, but post-2021 evidence shows spirals are rare when expectations stay anchored and labor bargaining power is weak.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation Is Catching Up to Wages — Are Americans Losing Buying Power? (Econ with Sarah, PhD)“demand higher wages in order to keep up with those costs, which then lead companies to then increase prices further”
Leans partly right AI guessThe mechanism exists, but post-2021 evidence shows spirals are rare when expectations stay anchored and labor bargaining power is weak.

Households are taking on more debt to maintain living standards as prices outpace pay [2026]

Leans partly right

Card balances and delinquencies rose in 2025-26, though rising balances partly reflect nominal growth rather than distress.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation Is Catching Up to Wages — Are Americans Losing Buying Power? (Econ with Sarah, PhD)“we are already seeing signs that this is happening with people having rising credit card debt”
Probably partly right AI guessCard balances and delinquencies rose in 2025-26, though rising balances partly reflect nominal growth rather than distress.

Credit card default rates have reached 2008 levels [2026]

Leans partly right

Card charge-off rates in 2025-26 approached 2008 levels but stayed below the 2009-10 peak above 10%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation Is Catching Up to Wages — Are Americans Losing Buying Power? (Econ with Sarah, PhD)“the amount of credit card debt defaults that we've seen in the last year is reaching the same level that it did in 2008”
Leans partly right AI guessCard charge-off rates in 2025-26 approached 2008 levels but stayed below the 2009-10 peak above 10%.

Moderate inflation is harmless if wages keep pace

Leans right

Real incomes determine living standards; 2% targets reflect that moderate, anticipated inflation has small costs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation Is Catching Up to Wages — Are Americans Losing Buying Power? (Econ with Sarah, PhD)“inflation in and of itself, if if it is controlled, is not inherently a bad thing if wages are able to keep up with it”
Probably right AI guessReal incomes determine living standards; 2% targets reflect that moderate, anticipated inflation has small costs.

The first-term tariffs raised large revenue without raising inflation [2018-2020]

Leans partly right

Inflation stayed near 2% in 2018-19, but tariffed goods such as washing machines rose in price and total first-term tariff revenue was roughly $230 billion, paid by US importers.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“I had almost no inflation and took in uh $600 billion dollar of money from other countries”
Leans partly right AI guessInflation stayed near 2% in 2018-19, but tariffed goods such as washing machines rose in price and total first-term tariff revenue was roughly $230 billion, paid by US importers.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 21-21The 2018-2019 tariffs passed through 100 percent into U.S. import prices with no exporter absorption, so U.S. buyers paid them in full; the post does not measure the aggregate inflation effect or the revenue raised.

Tariffs cause only temporary short-term disruption

Leans partly right

The tariff contribution to twelve-month goods inflation is temporary, fading to zero within about eighteen months, but tariffs leave the consumer goods price level permanently higher and the full effect takes a year to appear; the post covers prices only, not wider economic effects.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“there could be some temporary short-term disruption and people will understand that”
Leans partly right AI guessThe price-level effect of a tariff is one-time, but the 2025 tariffs' drag on growth and goods prices lasted beyond a few months and the deficit did not shrink.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 31-31The tariff contribution to twelve-month goods inflation is temporary, fading to zero within about eighteen months, but tariffs leave the consumer goods price level permanently higher and the full effect takes a year to appear; the post covers prices only, not wider economic effects.

Other countries charge the US tariffs while the US charges them none

Leans wrong

The US applied tariffs averaging about 3% before 2025 with high peaks on trucks, footwear and sugar; most partners' averages were similar.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“other countries charge us tariffs we don't charge them tariffs”
Very likely wrong AI guessThe US applied tariffs averaging about 3% before 2025 with high peaks on trucks, footwear and sugar; most partners' averages were similar.
Leans wrong NY Fed blog: who is paying the 2025 tariffs (Feb 2026) lines 6-6The U.S. average tariff rate on imports was 2.6 percent at the start of 2025, before the new tariffs, so the U.S. was not charging zero; the post does not compare this to other countries' rates.

The EU's VAT acts like a tariff on US exports

Leans wrong

VAT applies equally to domestic and imported goods and is rebated on exports, so it does not discriminate against US products.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ (Forbes Breaking News)“the European Union charges us 20% plus plus plus a vat tax called a vat tax very similar”
Very likely wrong AI guessVAT applies equally to domestic and imported goods and is rebated on exports, so it does not discriminate against US products.

The three-month annualized inflation rate is too volatile to guide policy

Probably partly right

Shifting the window by one month moves the three-month annualized CPI rate from about 0.2% (June-August 2026, after June's -0.4%) to about 4.6% (July-September 2026), demonstrating the volatility; whether that makes it unfit to guide policy is a judgment the data do not settle.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% (CNBC Television)“WHICH SHOWS YOU WHY YOU DON'T WANT TO RUN POLICY ON THE THREE MONTH ANNUALIZED RATE.”
Very likely right AI guessOne 0.6% month moved the three-month annualized rate from about 2% to 3.3%, showing how noisy the measure is.
Probably partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 191-195Shifting the window by one month moves the three-month annualized CPI rate from about 0.2% (June-August 2026, after June's -0.4%) to about 4.6% (July-September 2026), demonstrating the volatility; whether that makes it unfit to guide policy is a judgment the data do not settle.

Trade partners will keep their tariff deals despite the Supreme Court ruling [2026]

Leans partly right

Many partners signalled they would keep their deals, but the EU froze implementation of its side after the ruling.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

WATCH: Trump says tariffs could replace income tax | 2026 State of the Union (PBS NewsHour)“almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made”
Leans partly right AI guessMany partners signalled they would keep their deals, but the EU froze implementation of its side after the ruling.

Grocery prices are down under the current administration [2025]

Very likely wrong

The CPI food index rose 2.5% from January to December 2025 (335.517 to 343.795) and was up 3.1% year over year in December 2025; the series covers all food including restaurants rather than groceries alone.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Fact check: Trump says food and gas prices are down (WRAL)“we have groceries are down”
Very likely wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 751-762The CPI food index rose 2.5% from January to December 2025 (335.517 to 343.795) and was up 3.1% year over year in December 2025; the series covers all food including restaurants rather than groceries alone.
Leans partly right AI guessBLS data showed eggs and bread down but ground beef, bacon and overall food at home up during 2025.

Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [2025]

Almost certainly right

Regular gasoline averaged 3.101 over Feb-Dec 2025 (range 2.894-3.171), 10.4% below the Biden-period mean of 3.461 and 37% below the Biden peak of 4.929, with every 2025 month under the Biden mean; the caveat is that 2025 was essentially flat against the final Biden months (Oct 2024-Jan 2025: 3.137, 3.053, 3.018, 3.076), so the gap is against the Biden average, not the handover price.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Fact check: Trump says food and gas prices are down (WRAL)“It was $4 and $5 for a gallon of gas. Think of that for ga gasoline. And now it's probably 225.”
Almost certainly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 44-56Regular gasoline averaged 3.101 over Feb-Dec 2025 (range 2.894-3.171), 10.4% below the Biden-period mean of 3.461 and 37% below the Biden peak of 4.929, with every 2025 month under the Biden mean; the caveat is that 2025 was essentially flat against the final Biden months (Oct 2024-Jan 2025: 3.137, 3.053, 3.018, 3.076), so the gap is against the Biden average, not the handover price.
Probably partly right AI guess2025 gasoline averaged about $3.10-3.20, below the 2022-24 averages but far above $2.25; the $4-5 figure was the mid-2022 peak.

Energy prices are down overall under the current administration [2025]

Very likely partly right

The energy index was below its year-earlier level from February through July 2025 (-0.2% to -3.7%) but turned positive from August, ending 2025 at 274.131, 0.4% above January 2025 (273.045) and 2.3% above December 2024; down for much of the year, not down overall by year end.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Fact check: Trump says food and gas prices are down (WRAL)“energy is way down”
Very likely partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 847-858The energy index was below its year-earlier level from February through July 2025 (-0.2% to -3.7%) but turned positive from August, ending 2025 at 274.131, 0.4% above January 2025 (273.045) and 2.3% above December 2024; down for much of the year, not down overall by year end.
Probably partly right AI guessGasoline and other fuels fell in 2025 but electricity prices rose about 5%.
Leans partly right EIA WTI crude, monthly lines 51-51Fuel prices in 2025 were flat to down: WTI fell from 75.74 (Jan 2025) to 57.97 (Dec 2025, -23%), regular gasoline eased from 3.076 to 2.894 (-6%) and diesel was flat (3.634 to 3.615); electricity and natural gas, part of overall energy prices, are outside these series.

Electricity prices are rising even as fuel prices fall [2025]

Leans right

Retail electricity rose roughly 5-6% in 2025 on data-center demand and grid costs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Fact check: Trump says food and gas prices are down (WRAL)“if we look at electricity by itself, those prices are up”
Very likely right AI guessRetail electricity rose roughly 5-6% in 2025 on data-center demand and grid costs.
Leans partly right EIA WTI crude, monthly lines 51-51The fuel half holds for 2025: WTI fell 23% from Jan to Dec 2025 (75.74 to 57.97) and regular gasoline slipped from 3.076 to 2.894; the electricity half is outside these series.

Beef prices are rising sharply [2025]

Leans right

Ground beef hit record highs in 2025 on the smallest US cattle herd in decades.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Fact check: Trump says food and gas prices are down (WRAL)“the costs of things like ground beef and bacon, which are up more than 10%”
Very likely right AI guessGround beef hit record highs in 2025 on the smallest US cattle herd in decades.

Wage averages hide that low-income workers fare worse during inflation

Leans partly right

In 2021-24 low-wage workers saw the fastest real gains; in 2026 production workers' real pay fell slightly more than the average.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Real Wages Are Falling Going Into the Midterms (Steve Rattner)“even when wages are going up, the people at the bottom are being left behind and it's much worse for them”
Leans partly right AI guessIn 2021-24 low-wage workers saw the fastest real gains; in 2026 production workers' real pay fell slightly more than the average.

Moderating gasoline prices quickly lift real wages

Probably right

In June 2026 the seasonally adjusted gasoline index fell 9.7%, pulling all-items CPI down 0.4% while nominal AHE rose 0.3%, and derived real hourly earnings jumped 0.7% in the month (11.225 to 11.303), reversing most of the spring's loss; one episode, but it shows the mechanism.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Real Wages Are Falling Going Into the Midterms (Steve Rattner)“when gas prices start and other prices moderated under Bush, his real wages, people actually their purchasing power actually went up”
Probably right AI guessGasoline is a large, fast-moving CPI component, so a fuel drop lowers headline inflation within a month and raises real pay.
Probably right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 1438-1439In June 2026 the seasonally adjusted gasoline index fell 9.7%, pulling all-items CPI down 0.4% while nominal AHE rose 0.3%, and derived real hourly earnings jumped 0.7% in the month (11.225 to 11.303), reversing most of the spring's loss; one episode, but it shows the mechanism.

Tariffs and energy shocks that keep inflation elevated push long-term Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher

Leans right

Nominal long yields embed expected inflation, so policies that raise expected inflation raise borrowing costs, though how much of the 2026 yield rise is tariff-driven is contested.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“If investors think tariffs and retaliation and energy fights are going to keep inflation running closer to 4% than 2, they'll demand higher yields”
Probably right AI guessNominal long yields embed expected inflation, so policies that raise expected inflation raise borrowing costs, though how much of the 2026 yield rise is tariff-driven is contested.

Tariffs, immigration restrictions and the Iran war are each adding to US inflation [2026]

Leans right

Tariff pass-through and the war-driven energy spike are well documented; the labor-supply effect of immigration curbs on prices is real but smaller and harder to measure.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! (Patrick Boyle)“the very inflation the administration's tariffs, immigration policy, and foreign policy are helping to stoke”
Probably right AI guessTariff pass-through and the war-driven energy spike are well documented; the labor-supply effect of immigration curbs on prices is real but smaller and harder to measure.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 31-31On the tariff part only: tariffs added 2.9 points to twelve-month consumer goods inflation at the February 2026 peak, but their contribution is forecast to fall to about zero by August 2026 and turn negative, so by late 2026 tariffs raise the goods price level without adding to the inflation rate.

The CPI is an accurate measure of the change in the typical household's cost of living

Leans right

The CPI is the consensus measure built from hundreds of thousands of price quotes; known biases are small relative to the gap between measured and perceived inflation.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“I believe the truth is the cost of living for the typical American rose by 3.7% over the past year.”
Probably right AI guessThe CPI is the consensus measure built from hundreds of thousands of price quotes; known biases are small relative to the gap between measured and perceived inflation.

The CPI methodology has not been changed to lower measured inflation [2026]

Leans right

The 2026 methodological tweaks were to the BEA's PCE deflator, scheduled in advance; the BLS CPI series was unchanged.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“the method for calculating the consumer price index did not change”
Probably right AI guessThe 2026 methodological tweaks were to the BEA's PCE deflator, scheduled in advance; the BLS CPI series was unchanged.

Perceived inflation runs above measured inflation because people weight salient prices like gasoline and remember losses more than gains

Leans right

Survey research consistently finds inflation perceptions track gasoline and grocery prices and show loss aversion and telescoping bias.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“there's good evidence that people's perceptions of the state of the economy and the cost of living rise and fall with gas prices”
Very likely right AI guessSurvey research consistently finds inflation perceptions track gasoline and grocery prices and show loss aversion and telescoping bias.

Rising producer input costs eventually pass through into consumer prices

Very likely right

A 10 percent duty on imported inputs raises producer prices in consumer goods industries by about 2.6 percent, and a 10 percent tariff-induced rise in pre-retail prices raises retail prices by 5.6 percent, consistent with full pass-through net of distribution margins, with the input-cost channel taking nine to twelve months.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“if your input costs are rising, then that's going to lead to price rises. So inflation will start to move towards the PPI.”
Very likely right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 109-119A 10 percent duty on imported inputs raises producer prices in consumer goods industries by about 2.6 percent, and a 10 percent tariff-induced rise in pre-retail prices raises retail prices by 5.6 percent, consistent with full pass-through net of distribution margins, with the input-cost channel taking nine to twelve months.
Probably right AI guessPPI leads CPI only loosely and pass-through is partial, but sustained input-cost inflation above consumer inflation does compress margins until prices adjust.

The US economy's low import share limits how much tariffs raise its overall price level

Leans partly right

The direct effect scales with the imported share of each good and a uniform 10 percent tariff raises consumer goods prices only 2.6 percent, but a third of that effect comes through domestically produced goods via imported inputs and markups, so a low import share limits the effect less than the direct channel alone would suggest.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“the United States is a remarkably closed economy which is to say relative to other countries very little of what we buy is imported”
Very likely right AI guessImports are roughly a tenth of US consumer spending, so even high tariffs move the overall price level by only a few percent.
Leans partly right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 121-136The direct effect scales with the imported share of each good and a uniform 10 percent tariff raises consumer goods prices only 2.6 percent, but a third of that effect comes through domestically produced goods via imported inputs and markups, so a low import share limits the effect less than the direct channel alone would suggest.

On-again, off-again tariff implementation slowed how fast firms passed tariffs into prices

Leans partly right

Retail pass-through in 2025 was gradual and incomplete, consistent with firms waiting, but price trackers also saw some sellers raise prices as soon as tariffs were announced.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“you sort of wouldn't raise your prices until it was completely clear what was going on. And so, that would slow down the rate”
Leans partly right AI guessRetail pass-through in 2025 was gradual and incomplete, consistent with firms waiting, but price trackers also saw some sellers raise prices as soon as tariffs were announced.
Leans right NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026) lines 18-18Firms told the NY Fed surveys that uncertainty over future tariff rates, exemptions and retaliation may be leading them to adopt cautious, incremental pricing rather than large discrete adjustments, extending the pass-through period.

Tariffs lower real wages because they raise prices without raising the revenue firms could use for pay rises

Leans partly right

Tariffs do reduce real incomes as a cost-push shock, but protected domestic producers gain revenue and nominal wages are not literally frozen.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? (Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers)“So now what happens is prices rise and wages don't rise. That's the economics of a supply shock.”
Leans partly right AI guessTariffs do reduce real incomes as a cost-push shock, but protected domestic producers gain revenue and nominal wages are not literally frozen.

Households have sustained spending through higher gas prices by cutting their savings rate rather than other purchases [2026]

Leans right

The personal saving rate fell by about two points over the year while real spending held up, which is consistent with dissaving to absorb fuel costs.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“households said, you know, we're going to buy gas, but we're not going to stop buying other stuff. We're just going to save less”
Probably right AI guessThe personal saving rate fell by about two points over the year while real spending held up, which is consistent with dissaving to absorb fuel costs.

Underlying inflation is returning to the Fed's target and was only temporarily lifted by tariffs and the Iran war [2026]

Leans partly right

Tariff and energy effects are expected to fade, but core measures stayed near three percent through 2026 with services inflation showing no clear downtrend.

asserted 0 · ·

Asserts (0)Denies (1)Verdicts (2)

DENIES Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“underlying inflation was trending back to the Fed's 2% target but was kind of bumped up by tariffs and then bumped up”
Leans partly right AI guessTariff and energy effects are expected to fade, but core measures stayed near three percent through 2026 with services inflation showing no clear downtrend.
Leans partly right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 31-31On the tariff part only: the tariff contribution to twelve-month goods inflation peaked in February 2026 and is forecast to fade to zero by August 2026, consistent with a temporary lift to inflation; the post says nothing about underlying inflation or the Iran war.

Public anger over prices reflects the cumulative price level since 2021, not just the current inflation rate

Leans right

Consumer sentiment stayed depressed even as inflation slowed in 2023-24, tracking the roughly quarter rise in the price level since 2020.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“observes that prices are a lot higher than they were just uh six years ago. And I think the American people are reacting to that”
Very likely right AI guessConsumer sentiment stayed depressed even as inflation slowed in 2023-24, tracking the roughly quarter rise in the price level since 2020.

Returning prices to pre-2021 levels would require a deflationary collapse in demand and mass unemployment

Leans right

Broad price declines of twenty percent or more have historically occurred only in severe depressions.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone (Wealthion)“We should not want a deflation. We should not want prices to go back to where they were in 2021 or in 2019.”
Very likely right AI guessBroad price declines of twenty percent or more have historically occurred only in severe depressions.

Importing a few million barrels of Russian diesel is too small to materially lower US diesel prices

Leans right

US distillate consumption is around four million barrels a day, so a one-off shipment of a few million barrels is a rounding error in a global market.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump faces ‘bipartisan pushback’ on diesel deal with Russia as he tries to lower prices (NBC News)“2.25 MILLION BARRELS OF DIESEL THAT THIS DEAL COULD PRODUCE IS LESS THAN A DAY'S SUPPLY FOR THE AMERICAN TRANSPORT SECTOR.”
Very likely right AI guessUS distillate consumption is around four million barrels a day, so a one-off shipment of a few million barrels is a rounding error in a global market.

Short of ending the Iran war, the administration has few tools to lower diesel prices quickly

Leans right

Export bans and reserve releases give only brief relief in a globally priced fuel market; the supply disruption itself sets the price.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump faces ‘bipartisan pushback’ on diesel deal with Russia as he tries to lower prices (NBC News)“THERE'S VERY LITTLE THAT THEY CAN ACTUALLY DO TO MATERIALLY BRING DOWN THE COST OF DIESEL SHORT OF END THE IRAN WAR”
Probably right AI guessExport bans and reserve releases give only brief relief in a globally priced fuel market; the supply disruption itself sets the price.

Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [spring 2026]

Almost certainly right

In March 2026 the seasonally adjusted gasoline index rose 21.2% and energy 10.9% while all items rose 0.9% and core only 0.2%; headline 12-month inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% that month while core moved from 2.5% to 2.6%, so gasoline accounts for essentially all of the spring rise.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“What the official April data actually documents is a massive, sudden energy shock.”
Almost certainly right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 45-91In March 2026 the seasonally adjusted gasoline index rose 21.2% and energy 10.9% while all items rose 0.9% and core only 0.2%; headline 12-month inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.3% that month while core moved from 2.5% to 2.6%, so gasoline accounts for essentially all of the spring rise.
Probably right AI guessEnergy rose double digits year over year in April 2026 while core inflation moved only a few tenths, so energy accounts for most of the headline jump.

Prices raised by a tariff do not fall back when the tariff is removed

Leans partly right

Prices fall more slowly than they rise, but when the washing-machine tariff actually ended in 2023 laundry prices dropped about a tenth within a year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“Tariffs act like a one -way ratchet on shelf prices, easy to raise, almost impossible to unwind.”
Probably partly right AI guessPrices fall more slowly than they rise, but when the washing-machine tariff actually ended in 2023 laundry prices dropped about a tenth within a year.
Leans wrong NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 30-30The forecast has the tariff effect on the goods price level easing from about 3 percent to about 2 percent by August 2026 after the Supreme Court ruling replaced the emergency tariffs with a lower 10 percent surcharge, mostly through the direct channel; this is a model projection assuming symmetric pass-through, not an observed reversal, and the indirect effect is more persistent.

Tariffs hit low-margin cheap goods hardest, so they fall disproportionately on lower-income shoppers

Leans right

Tariffs are regressive because lower-income households spend a larger share on tradable goods and discount sellers have no margin to absorb duties.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“For budget -conscious shoppers, that quiet price adjustment wiped out the cheapest retail aisle in America.”
Probably right AI guessTariffs are regressive because lower-income households spend a larger share on tradable goods and discount sellers have no margin to absorb duties.

Monetary policy cannot offset the price effects of a tariff supply shock

Leans partly right

Rates cannot lower import costs, but they can restrain second-round price effects, which is why the Fed treats tariff inflation as a judgment call rather than untouchable.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says (Vivid Box HQ)“The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady between 3 .50 and 3 .75%, because interest rates cannot fix foreign supply bottlenecks.”
Leans partly right AI guessRates cannot lower import costs, but they can restrain second-round price effects, which is why the Fed treats tariff inflation as a judgment call rather than untouchable.

Removing tariffs lowers prices only gradually, as imposing them raised prices gradually

Leans partly right

Prices do adjust downward with a lag when tariffs truly end, but the asymmetry is larger than symmetric: price cuts come slower and smaller than the rises.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trade economist explains Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs (FOX 5 New York)“the tariffs affected the economy was slowly and built up over time and now when we remove them it's going to slowly and build down”
Leans partly right AI guessPrices do adjust downward with a lag when tariffs truly end, but the asymmetry is larger than symmetric: price cuts come slower and smaller than the rises.
Leans right NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 30-30After the early-2026 tariff cut, the projected price-level effect eases over about six months, with most of the decline in the fast direct channel while the indirect effect is more persistent because U.S. producer prices adjust slowly; a projection, not observed data.

Manufacturing employment fell during the first year of the new tariffs [2025]

Probably right

BLS describes December 2025 as a recent low for manufacturing employment (up 72,000 since), which means the sector shed jobs through 2025, though the release does not give the January-December 2025 change.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trade economist explains Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs (FOX 5 New York)“the jobs report about manufacturing last year wasn't as promising as we expected and a lot of manufacturing jobs were actually lost last year”
Probably right AI guessBLS payroll data showed manufacturing employment declining through 2025 despite the tariffs intended to protect it.
Probably right BLS Employment Situation, September 2026 lines 73-75BLS describes December 2025 as a recent low for manufacturing employment (up 72,000 since), which means the sector shed jobs through 2025, though the release does not give the January-December 2025 change.

Overall consumer prices will fall under the administration's policies

Leans wrong

The CPI has risen about three to four percent a year through 2026; broad price declines occur only in deep recessions.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“But prices will come down. You just watch, you'll come down and they'll come down fast.”
Very likely wrong AI guessThe CPI has risen about three to four percent a year through 2026; broad price declines occur only in deep recessions.

AI data-center demand is pushing up electricity and computer prices [2026]

Leans partly right

Data-center load is raising wholesale power demand and memory chip shortages lifted computer prices, but fuel costs and grid investment also drive electricity bills.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“That's above the overall rate of inflation. And that reflects in part a lot of demand driven by the AI boom.”
Leans partly right AI guessData-center load is raising wholesale power demand and memory chip shortages lifted computer prices, but fuel costs and grid investment also drive electricity bills.

Grocery inflation has slowed sharply [September 2026]

Very likely right

Food at home rose 1.8% over the 12 months to September 2026 with monthly changes of -0.1%, 0.0% and -0.1% in July-September, and the broader food index slowed from 3.2% (April 2026) to 2.5%; beef fell 1.0% and dairy 0.9% on the month.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises (CNN)“food at home. This is groceries up by less than 2%. This is the best number of the of the president's second term.”
Very likely right BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 134-138Food at home rose 1.8% over the 12 months to September 2026 with monthly changes of -0.1%, 0.0% and -0.1% in July-September, and the broader food index slowed from 3.2% (April 2026) to 2.5%; beef fell 1.0% and dairy 0.9% on the month.
Probably right AI guessFood-at-home inflation ran below overall inflation in late 2026 according to the CPI release, though rising diesel costs threaten that.

Core inflation fell to its lowest level in more than five years [late 2025]

Almost certainly partly right

Core CPI was 2.6% in November and December 2025, the lowest since March 2021 (1.6%), which is four years and eight months, not more than five years; April 2021 was already 3.0%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“my administration has driven core inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years”
Almost certainly partly right BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 223-282Core CPI was 2.6% in November and December 2025, the lowest since March 2021 (1.6%), which is four years and eight months, not more than five years; April 2021 was already 3.0%.
Leans partly right AI guessA three-month annualized core rate dipped in late 2025, helped by shutdown-distorted rent data, but year-over-year core inflation stayed near two and a half to three percent, not a five-year low.

Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [early 2026]

Almost certainly right

January and February 2026 regular gasoline were 2.809 and 2.908 (mean 2.859), 17.4% below the Biden-period mean of 3.461 and 42% below the 4.929 peak; it stopped being true in the second week of March 2026 (weekly 03/09 3.502) and March's monthly average of 3.638 was already above the Biden mean.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“under my predecessor, it was, quite honestly, a disaster, is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states”
Almost certainly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 47-56January and February 2026 regular gasoline were 2.809 and 2.908 (mean 2.859), 17.4% below the Biden-period mean of 3.461 and 42% below the 4.929 peak; it stopped being true in the second week of March 2026 (weekly 03/09 3.502) and March's monthly average of 3.638 was already above the Biden mean.
Probably right AI guessThe national average near three dollars in early 2026 was below most of 2022-2024, though well above the sub-2.30 figure claimed for most states.

Prices of groceries, rent, hotels and cars are lower than when the administration took office [early 2026]

Very likely wrong

The food index rose 2.9% from January 2025 to January 2026 (335.517 to 345.165) and shelter rose 3.0% (409.153 to 421.526), so groceries and rent were higher, not lower; hotels and cars are not in these series.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“The cost of chicken, butter, fruit, hotels, automobiles, rent is lower today than when I took office by a lot.”
Very likely wrong BLS CPI, earnings and jobs series 2019-2026 lines 751-763The food index rose 2.9% from January 2025 to January 2026 (335.517 to 345.165) and shelter rose 3.0% (409.153 to 421.526), so groceries and rent were higher, not lower; hotels and cars are not in these series.
Probably wrong AI guessEgg prices fell from their avian-flu spike, but CPI rent, lodging and food-at-home indexes all rose over 2025.

Mortgage rates are at their lowest in four years and falling [early 2026]

Leans partly right

Thirty-year rates near six percent in early 2026 were the lowest since 2022 but above early-2022 levels, and they rose back above seven percent later in the year.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks (CNBC)“Mortgage rates are the lowest in four years and falling fast”
Leans partly right AI guessThirty-year rates near six percent in early 2026 were the lowest since 2022 but above early-2022 levels, and they rose back above seven percent later in the year.

Gasoline prices mainly follow the global oil market rather than presidential policy

Probably right

Pump prices tracked crude under both administrations: WTI 91.64 to 114.84 (Feb-Jun 2022) with gasoline 3.517 to 4.929, WTI 64.51 to 102.13 (Feb-May 2026) with gasoline 2.908 to 4.479, and the 2025 decline of WTI to 57.97 with gasoline easing to 2.894; co-movement supports the claim but cannot exclude policy effects on crude itself.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy (PBS NewsHour)“the price of diesel we pay at the pump for gasoline for that matter, is set in a global market”
Very likely right AI guessCrude is the bulk of the pump price and is set in a world market; domestic policy moves retail prices only at the margin.
Probably right EIA WTI crude, monthly lines 46-52Pump prices tracked crude under both administrations: WTI 91.64 to 114.84 (Feb-Jun 2022) with gasoline 3.517 to 4.929, WTI 64.51 to 102.13 (Feb-May 2026) with gasoline 2.908 to 4.479, and the 2025 decline of WTI to 57.97 with gasoline easing to 2.894; co-movement supports the claim but cannot exclude policy effects on crude itself.

A US diesel export ban would lower prices only briefly before refiners cut output and global prices rise

Leans right

Energy economists across the spectrum reached the same conclusion on 2022 export-ban proposals: trapped supply lowers Gulf Coast prices for weeks, then refinery cuts and higher world prices reverse it.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy (PBS NewsHour)“But then the prices would rise again because refiners would reduce their production of diesel.”
Probably right AI guessEnergy economists across the spectrum reached the same conclusion on 2022 export-ban proposals: trapped supply lowers Gulf Coast prices for weeks, then refinery cuts and higher world prices reverse it.

Tariffs have hurt farmers by lowering crop prices and raising fertilizer costs

Leans right

Chinese retaliation collapsed US soybean exports in 2025 and tariffs on imported fertilizer raised input costs, both documented in USDA data.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy (PBS NewsHour)“since this administration came in from tariffs when the prices plummeted. We never recruit. We ran more and fertilizer prices went through the roof”
Probably right AI guessChinese retaliation collapsed US soybean exports in 2025 and tariffs on imported fertilizer raised input costs, both documented in USDA data.

Retailers raise prices as soon as a tariff is announced, pricing the next shipment rather than past costs

Probably wrong

Retailers take a few months to pass on higher costs: only about half of the direct effect of a tariff is in consumer prices after three months and all of it by six, so retail prices do not jump at announcement.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (3)

Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“Prices went up within days of a new tariff, before any tariffed stock had even arrived. Stores were pricing the next container.”
Probably wrong NY Fed blog: how fast tariffs pass through (Oct 2026) lines 17-17Retailers take a few months to pass on higher costs: only about half of the direct effect of a tariff is in consumer prices after three months and all of it by six, so retail prices do not jump at announcement.
Leans partly right AI guessDaily price trackers saw some immediate increases on announcement, but most pass-through built gradually over months.
Leans wrong NY Fed blog: more pass-through in the pipeline (Jul 2026) lines 17-18Surveyed firms cited fixed-price contracts that prevent raising prices until expiry and a deliberate trickle-up strategy of gradual increases to avoid shocking customers, the opposite of pricing the next shipment at announcement.

Refunding past tariffs does not lower prices while replacement tariffs keep restocking costs high

Leans right

Prices track replacement cost; a refund of sunk duties is a windfall to the balance sheet while new tariffs keep the marginal import cost elevated.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? (Grossly)“The refund paid back a cost importers had already carried. It didn't remove the cost of the next container.”
Very likely right AI guessPrices track replacement cost; a refund of sunk duties is a windfall to the balance sheet while new tariffs keep the marginal import cost elevated.

Raising the policy rate brings inflation back toward target sooner

Leans right

Tighter policy restrains demand and anchors expectations, lowering inflation with a lag of a year or more; it cannot undo a supply shock already in prices.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve)“Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal.”
Probably right AI guessTighter policy restrains demand and anchors expectations, lowering inflation with a lag of a year or more; it cannot undo a supply shock already in prices.
Leans right FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026 lines 9-9The FOMC's September 2026 statement says its quarter-point hike 'will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal'; this is the central bank asserting the mechanism, not evidence of it.

Tariffs invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners

Leans right

Every major US tariff round since 2018 drew matching retaliation from China, the EU, Canada and others.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Tariffs Explained with Bananas (Primate Economics)“Banana Land government can retaliate. Then Monkeyland could retaliate. Then Banana Land. This is called a trade war.”
Very likely right AI guessEvery major US tariff round since 2018 drew matching retaliation from China, the EU, Canada and others.

Lower-income households are relying on credit and missing payments as prices outrun pay [2026]

Leans right

Credit card and auto delinquency rates rose through 2025-26, concentrated among lower-income and younger borrowers.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Economist breaks down new inflation report and what's driving prices higher (PBS NewsHour)“people in the bottom 30% don't have any extra money and are relying on credit cards and starting to miss payments”
Probably right AI guessCredit card and auto delinquency rates rose through 2025-26, concentrated among lower-income and younger borrowers.

Current inflation is a temporary by-product of the Iran war that will reverse when the war ends [spring 2026]

Leans partly right

The energy component should reverse when supply normalizes, but core inflation near three percent and tariff pass-through are not war-related and will not vanish with a ceasefire.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump says "I love the inflation" because U.S. is "taking" Iranian oil (CBS News)“I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now.”
Leans partly right AI guessThe energy component should reverse when supply normalizes, but core inflation near three percent and tariff pass-through are not war-related and will not vanish with a ceasefire.

US seizures of Iranian oil cargoes are holding down world oil prices [spring 2026]

Unknown

No independent accounting of seized or released volumes exists; oil near eighty-five dollars mostly reflects spare OPEC capacity and demand rather than seizures.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump says "I love the inflation" because U.S. is "taking" Iranian oil (CBS News)“we blasted the crap out of it. We took out That's why oil is $85 a barrel.”
Unknown AI guessNo independent accounting of seized or released volumes exists; oil near eighty-five dollars mostly reflects spare OPEC capacity and demand rather than seizures.

Oil prices have stayed well below the worst-case forecasts made when the Iran war began [spring 2026]

Leans right

Some analysts warned a Hormuz closure could push crude past one hundred fifty dollars; prices in the eighties to low hundreds were well short of that.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Trump says "I love the inflation" because U.S. is "taking" Iranian oil (CBS News)“And the other thing is that oil would go to $250 a barrel. It's at 85. And which is pretty amazing.”
Leans right AI guessSome analysts warned a Hormuz closure could push crude past one hundred fifty dollars; prices in the eighties to low hundreds were well short of that.

Non-emergency Section 232 and 301 tariffs raised about as much revenue as the emergency tariffs [2025]

Leans wrong

Trade economists estimated the emergency tariffs accounted for roughly two-thirds of 2025 collections, well above the Section 232 and 301 take.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bessent Says Tariff Revenue Will Be Little Changed in 2026 (Bloomberg Television)“the existing revenues, you know, under the 230 twos, under the three oh ones and some other collection mechanisms were roughly equal to the EU”
Leans wrong AI guessTrade economists estimated the emergency tariffs accounted for roughly two-thirds of 2025 collections, well above the Section 232 and 301 take.

Refunds of the struck-down emergency tariffs will be delayed by years of litigation

Leans wrong

Customs certified and paid out most of the refunds within months of the ruling.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (1)

Bessent Says Tariff Revenue Will Be Little Changed in 2026 (Bloomberg Television)“my sense is that could be dragged out for weeks, months, years”
Leans wrong AI guessCustoms certified and paid out most of the refunds within months of the ruling.

Replacement legal authorities let the administration keep a global tariff in place despite the ruling [2026]

Probably right

After the Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs, the fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs were terminated and replaced with a temporary 10 percent surcharge on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, while Section 232 product tariffs continued.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Bessent Says Tariff Revenue Will Be Little Changed in 2026 (Bloomberg Television)“There is something called Section 122, which grants the president five months to install to put a global tariff on.”
Probably right AI guessA ten percent Section 122 tariff was imposed the day of the ruling and succeeded by another global tariff when it expired.
Probably right NY Fed tariff pass-through study (Amiti, Heise, Weinstein) lines 258-266After the Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that IEEPA does not authorise tariffs, the fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs were terminated and replaced with a temporary 10 percent surcharge on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, while Section 232 product tariffs continued.

Gasoline prices rise seasonally into the summer driving months

Probably partly right

Prices do rise from winter toward summer (May above January in 15 of 16 years 2010-2025), but the seasonal peak is typically late spring, not midsummer: May was at or above August in 13 of those 16 years (2024: May 3.603, Aug 3.389; 2019: 2.859 vs 2.621), so prices usually plateau or drift down during the driving season itself.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump makes new promises on gas prices as Iran war reaches 60-day mark (CBS News)“before we get into the summer months when gas prices tend to get more expensive anyway”
Very likely right AI guessSummer blend requirements and driving demand lift US gasoline prices most years from spring into summer.
Probably partly right EIA regular gasoline, monthly lines 28-47Prices do rise from winter toward summer (May above January in 15 of 16 years 2010-2025), but the seasonal peak is typically late spring, not midsummer: May was at or above August in 13 of those 16 years (2024: May 3.603, Aug 3.389; 2019: 2.859 vs 2.621), so prices usually plateau or drift down during the driving season itself.

The US currently has no inflation [September 2026]

Almost certainly wrong

CPI-U rose 0.6% in September 2026 and 3.7% over the previous 12 months, with core up 2.6%.

· denied 0 ·

Asserts (1)Denies (0)Verdicts (2)

Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise (13WHAM ABC News)“BUT WE DON'T HAVE INFLATION”
Almost certainly wrong BLS CPI release, September 2026 lines 11-13CPI-U rose 0.6% in September 2026 and 3.7% over the previous 12 months, with core up 2.6%.
Almost certainly wrong AI guessCPI inflation was three point seven percent in September 2026, nearly double the Fed's target.

Score	Source	Novelty	Verdict
+2	Did the economy break Trump? Enten unpacks the numbers CNN Show claimsNovel (6)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (8) DENIES The previous administration presided over the worst inflation in US history Leans right “even that 9.1% 40-year peak was nowhere close to the all-time high. The all-time high is 23.7% in 1920.” only this source DENIES Most consumer prices are falling [October 2026] Almost certainly right “he said that all your prices are falling fast. Well, the vast majority of prices continue to increase.” only this source DENIES Average consumer prices are lower than when the current administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “Uh that is not even close to true. Average consumer prices according to the CPI are 5.4% higher.” only this source Inflation has stayed above three percent since the Iran war began [October 2026] Very likely right “It hasn't been as low as three since the Iran war started in March.” only this source DENIES Inflation over the most recent three months has run below the Fed's two percent target [October 2026] Very likely right “We have not had anywhere close to 1.7 inflation in the last 3 months. We had 3.4% in July, 3.4% in August, up to 3.7%” 1 of 2 sources DENIES Annual inflation under the previous administration peaked near twenty percent Almost certainly right “Biden era inflation did peak at 9.1% uh June 2022” 1 of 2 sources Producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices, pointing to further consumer inflation [autumn 2026] Leans partly right “the producer price index is up 1.3% from September and more than 6% from a year ago” 1 of 2 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “inflation was lower when President Trump took office than it is now” 1 of 7 sources	4.41	new and sound
+2	Why Haven't Trump's Tariffs Crashed the Economy? Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers Show claimsNovel (5)Right (8)Wrong (0)Partly (3)Untestable (0)All (11) The CPI is an accurate measure of the change in the typical household's cost of living Leans right “I believe the truth is the cost of living for the typical American rose by 3.7% over the past year.” only this source The CPI methodology has not been changed to lower measured inflation [2026] Leans right “the method for calculating the consumer price index did not change” only this source Perceived inflation runs above measured inflation because people weight salient prices like gasoline and remember losses more than gains Leans right “there's good evidence that people's perceptions of the state of the economy and the cost of living rise and fall with gas prices” only this source Rising producer input costs eventually pass through into consumer prices Very likely right “if your input costs are rising, then that's going to lead to price rises. So inflation will start to move towards the PPI.” only this source Tariffs raised US inflation by a modest amount spread over time rather than causing a surge Probably right “Inflation has roughly speaking been 1 to 2% higher than it would otherwise have been.” 1 of 2 sources The US economy's low import share limits how much tariffs raise its overall price level Leans partly right “the United States is a remarkably closed economy which is to say relative to other countries very little of what we buy is imported” only this source On-again, off-again tariff implementation slowed how fast firms passed tariffs into prices Leans partly right “you sort of wouldn't raise your prices until it was completely clear what was going on. And so, that would slow down the rate” only this source Tariffs lower real wages because they raise prices without raising the revenue firms could use for pay rises Leans partly right “So now what happens is prices rise and wages don't rise. That's the economics of a supply shock.” only this source Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “if it all happened at once, inflation would be 2 to 4% higher. It may not all happen at once.” 1 of 7 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “We also discover a lot of that is that we buy gasoline. And if you strip out food and energy, we're back down to 2.6%.” 1 of 8 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “Paychecks are also falling behind, so people are able to buy less with what they have.” 1 of 9 sources	3.67	new and sound
+2	Energy Markets are on the Verge of a Disaster! Patrick Boyle Show claimsNovel (6)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (1)All (9) US shale producers are not boosting output in response to the oil spike because price volatility deters investment Leans right “energy executives are refusing to significantly increase production, pointing to the absolute chaos of the current market” only this source Advanced economies are much less vulnerable to oil shocks than in the 1970s because oil intensity of GDP has fallen Leans right “Since the 1970s, the oil intensity of the global economy has declined by more than 70%.” only this source The Iran conflict's energy shock has pushed US headline inflation higher [spring 2026] Very likely right “Both the United States and the United Kingdom saw inflation accelerate to 3.3% in March.” only this source Pressuring gas station owners to cut prices does not materially lower pump prices Leans right “The problem is that you can't yell at inflation until it goes away.” only this source Renewable electricity does little to offset an oil supply shock because little oil is used for power generation Leans right “You can't fix a 20% drop in global hydrocarbon supply with wind turbines in the short term” 1 of 2 sources Higher diesel, fertilizer and shipping costs from the oil shock pass through to consumer goods prices with a lag of months Leans right “The increased costs of fertilizer, diesel, and rerouted shipping have already been baked into the supply chain.” 1 of 3 sources Higher oil prices do not benefit the US economy overall because consumer costs outweigh producer gains Leans partly right “the windfall at the wellhead doesn't necessarily reach the kitchen table” only this source Oil prices will stay elevated for years after the Iran conflict ends because lost Gulf supply cannot be recovered Unknown “the market might not return to equilibrium until 2030 due to this permanent loss of supply” only this source The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “look at the rising price of gasoline, and simply walk away from the conflict” 1 of 14 sources	2.97	new and sound
+2	Distributional Effects of Tariffs The Budget Lab Show claimsNovel (7)Right (9)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (9) The economic burden tariffs impose on households exceeds the revenue they raise Leans right “the sort of burden can can be larger than the revenue” only this source Heavy reliance on tariffs for government revenue makes an economy less efficient by misallocating resources Leans right “countries that try to raise a significant amount of revenue from tariffs have less efficient economies” only this source Replacing income tax revenue with tariff revenue makes the federal tax system more regressive Leans right “If you're cutting an income tax and you're expanding a consumption tax, that's going to be a regressive move.” only this source Inflation-indexed transfer programs blunt part of the tariff burden on the lowest-income households Leans right “many transfer programs are indexed on inflation” only this source Whether tariffs raise the overall price level depends on how the Federal Reserve responds Leans right “it's up to them to decide which of these two costs that we um we bear” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs fall more heavily on lower-income households as a share of their income Leans right “the burden is uh larger as a share of income for lower inome households uh than higher inome households” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs reduce household real income whether the cost shows up as higher prices or lower nominal incomes Leans right “You're either going to see a fall in factor incomes, wages or capital income, or you're going to see a rise in um consumer prices.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers Very likely right “That makes manufacturing in the United States harder, not easier if you're making our input goods more expensive.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “first and foremost you know these are taxes on Americans” 1 of 15 sources	2.94	new and sound
+2	Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan \| WSJ The Wall Street Journal Show claimsNovel (6)Right (10)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (10) Tariffs persist for decades once imposed because protected industries lobby to keep them Leans right “Tariffs are really hard to remove.” only this source Tariffs on China pushed companies to diversify supply chains out of China Probably right “it did motivate US companies to move out of China and made supply chains more resilient” only this source Tariffs have not changed China's trade practices Leans right “But it didn't change much of China's behavior and in many ways they became more aggressive.” only this source Tariffs are a very costly way to create jobs because consumer costs per job protected run far above wages Leans right “This is a very expensive job creation program.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs cannot raise enough revenue to replace the income tax because high rates shrink imports Leans right “about 5% of what the federal government currently brings in with taxes” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs on inputs cost more jobs in the industries that use them than they protect in the producing industry Leans right “you lose jobs as many if not more jobs in those downstream industries as you gain in the upstream industries” 1 of 3 sources Retaliation and uncertainty from tariffs slow investment and growth Leans right “So not only will US import shrink, but US exports will shrink as well.” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers Very likely right “All the industries that use steel have to pay the higher price that squeezes their profit margins.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “not only did the price of imported washing machines go up, so did the ones made in the US” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “They've gotta pass that price on to consumers who ultimately pay it.” 1 of 15 sources	2.74	new and sound
+2	How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check Bloomberg Originals Show claimsNovel (4)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (9) Tariffs have not reduced the overall US trade deficit [2025] Leans right “It was almost exactly the same size as the trade deficit that it had in 2024.” only this source Tariffs have not revived US manufacturing employment [2025] Probably right “in the last year, the US lost more than 80,000 manufacturing jobs. That's even as these tariffs went into place.” only this source Industries facing higher tariffs grew more slowly than lightly tariffed ones [2025] Leans right “any growth that was there was really driven by the lower-tariffed industries, things like pharmaceuticals, electronics.” only this source Tariffs raise government revenue while raising costs for US consumers Very likely right “the administration was really counting on this revenue from the tariffs to plug that fiscal hole” 1 of 3 sources Tariffs shifted US imports away from China rather than cutting imports overall Leans partly right “reshuffle trade away from China and towards Mexico and other Asian countries more than reducing the aggregate trade deficit” only this source Most lost US manufacturing jobs are due to technology, not trade Leans partly right “The principle driver of that trend is not trade, it's technology.” only this source DENIES Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely right “Trump had promised that foreign countries would be the ones paying for its tariffs, but ...” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers Very likely right “if those imported components and big things that they use like steel and aluminum are more expensive as a result of tariffs, they can't hire” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “the foreign exporters aren't eating the tariffs. They're 90-95% passed through to US importers and their customers.” 1 of 15 sources	2.68	new and sound
+2	Did US Pay Keep Up With Inflation? 1990–2026 (Real Data) Compound Charts Show claimsNovel (4)Right (4)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (4) Over recent decades US real hourly pay has grown only slowly, with frequent down years Leans right “Real pay in this series is a slow grind with frequent setbacks.” only this source Real wages fell during the 2021-2023 inflation spike before recovering as inflation cooled Almost certainly right “Real year-over-year growth went negative in twenty twenty-one and stayed underwater into twenty twenty-three.” only this source Average wage figures can rise because low-wage jobs disappear rather than because pay increased Probably right “Averages can move for reasons that aren't a raise in your own paycheck.” only this source Cumulative inflation has cut the purchasing power of a dollar held since 1990 by more than half Leans right “Its purchasing power is crushed by cumulative inflation” only this source	2.60	new and sound
+2	Michael Strain: Why the American Economy Keeps Surprising Everyone Wealthion Show claimsNovel (4)Right (8)Wrong (0)Partly (3)Untestable (0)All (11) Households have sustained spending through higher gas prices by cutting their savings rate rather than other purchases [2026] Leans right “households said, you know, we're going to buy gas, but we're not going to stop buying other stuff. We're just going to save less” only this source Public anger over prices reflects the cumulative price level since 2021, not just the current inflation rate Leans right “observes that prices are a lot higher than they were just uh six years ago. And I think the American people are reacting to that” only this source Returning prices to pre-2021 levels would require a deflationary collapse in demand and mass unemployment Leans right “We should not want a deflation. We should not want prices to go back to where they were in 2021 or in 2019.” only this source Consumer spending has stayed strong despite tariffs, higher gas prices and policy uncertainty [2026] Probably right “through all of this, the American consumer continues to uh spend and continues to show remarkable resilience” 1 of 2 sources DENIES Underlying inflation is returning to the Fed's target and was only temporarily lifted by tariffs and the Iran war [2026] Leans partly right “underlying inflation was trending back to the Fed's 2% target but was kind of bumped up by tariffs and then bumped up” only this source Tariff costs have led US businesses to hold back on hiring Leans partly right “they're registering a lot of a lot of discontent and they're not adding to payrolls” 1 of 2 sources Underlying inflation is running around three percent and not decelerating [2026] Very likely partly right “I think underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything it's accelerating rather than uh rather than decelerating.” 1 of 3 sources DENIES Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely right “it was foreignbased companies that would be paying that which almost everyone says is not true” 1 of 6 sources DENIES Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely right “The president's tariffs are uh contributing meaningfully to measured consumer price inflation.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers Very likely right “the slight majority of what the US imports every year are um uh goods that US businesses need to make stuff here” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “American businesses and consumers are paying the current tariffs” 1 of 15 sources	2.57	new and sound
+2	Inflation on Many Everyday Items Was Entirely Due to Tariffs, NY Fed Says Vivid Box HQ Show claimsNovel (2)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (7) Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [spring 2026] Almost certainly right “What the official April data actually documents is a massive, sudden energy shock.” only this source Tariffs hit low-margin cheap goods hardest, so they fall disproportionately on lower-income shoppers Leans right “For budget -conscious shoppers, that quiet price adjustment wiped out the cheapest retail aisle in America.” only this source Prices raised by a tariff do not fall back when the tariff is removed Leans partly right “Tariffs act like a one -way ratchet on shelf prices, easy to raise, almost impossible to unwind.” only this source Monetary policy cannot offset the price effects of a tariff supply shock Leans partly right “The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady between 3 .50 and 3 .75%, because interest rates cannot fix foreign supply bottlenecks.” only this source Importers absorb much of a new tariff at first and pass it to consumers over the following months Probably right “Companies absorb early import duty costs through thinner profit margins, but that corporate cushion wears thin over time.” 1 of 4 sources DENIES A falling inflation rate means consumer prices are falling Almost certainly right “the research shows that tariff -driven goods inflation was fading fast across the broader economy. Yet fading inflation only means that prices stop climbing.” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “fading inflation only means that prices stop climbing. It does not mean they return to where they started.” 1 of 7 sources	2.40	new and sound
+2	Trump's Mystery 1.7% Inflation Number... Explained With Squirrels Squirrelly Economics Show claimsNovel (3)Right (6)Wrong (0)Partly (3)Untestable (0)All (9) DENIES Inflation over the most recent three months has run below the Fed's two percent target [October 2026] Very likely right “Nobody can find his 1.7.” 1 of 2 sources Shelter costs are still rising faster than overall core inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “Shelter costs are up 3.2% over the year. Rent ticked up another 0.2 in September.” 1 of 2 sources DENIES Annual inflation under the previous administration peaked near twenty percent Almost certainly right “Under Biden, the price index never got near 19%. It peaked at 9.1 in June 2022.” 1 of 2 sources Cumulative price increases under the current administration are far smaller than under the previous one [2026] Very likely partly right “Prices rose about 21% over Biden's 4 years. In the head nut's first 20 months this term, about 5.4.” only this source Producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices, pointing to further consumer inflation [autumn 2026] Leans partly right “They jumped 1.3% the biggest monthly jump since March 2022, more than double what economists expected.” 1 of 2 sources Grocery prices have been flat to falling while energy drives inflation [September 2026] Very likely right “Grocery prices actually slipped 0.1%.” 1 of 5 sources Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026] Probably partly right “about 61% of everything in the basket is up more than 3% from a year ago. So, it's not one bad acorn.” 1 of 6 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “The price of gasoline jumped 9.1% in September alone. That one item was more than half of the whole month's increase.” 1 of 8 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “September was the sixth month in a row that pay lost the race to prices.” 1 of 9 sources	2.35	new and sound
+2	‘Simply wrong’: GOP lawmakers caught LYING about gas prices MS NOW Show claimsNovel (3)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (7) DENIES Gasoline prices are falling [spring 2026] Almost certainly right “Gas prices continue to come down. Senator Tim Scott, that is simply not true.” only this source Being a net oil exporter does not shield US consumers from global oil price spikes Leans right “IT'S TERRIFIC FOR REFINERS AND OIL COMPANIES AND IT'S NOT SO TERRIFIC FOR CONSUMERS” only this source DENIES Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [spring 2026] Almost certainly right “IN APRIL OF 2024, WE WERE AT ABOUT 365. SO WE'RE ACTUALLY ABOVE WHERE WE WERE THEN.” 1 of 2 sources Gasoline prices rise quickly after an oil shock but fall back slowly Leans partly right “Gas prices rise quickly, but they often take a long time to go down.” 1 of 2 sources Spring refinery maintenance and the switch to summer gasoline push pump prices up seasonally Leans partly right “THE CHANGE over to summer gasoline, refineries that are undergoing maintenance before the summer driving season.” 1 of 2 sources Rising diesel prices raise the cost of most other goods Leans right “rising diesel costs in particular also make everything else more expensive.” 1 of 4 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “up by well over a dollar since the war started.” 1 of 14 sources	2.35	new and sound
+2	Tariffs: Who Really Pays and Who Really Loses? What the 2018–2019 Data Shows (Fed & NBER) FactsMatter Show claimsNovel (6)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (7) The 2018-2019 tariffs left the US economy worse off even after counting tariff revenue Leans right “We collected money, but we lost more than we collected.” only this source Retaliation against US tariffs cut farm exports enough to require federal bailouts of farmers Leans right “paid farmers over 20 billion between 2018 and 2019 to keep them afloat.” only this source Most academic economists hold that tariffs leave the average American worse off Leans right “large majorities disagree that terrorists make the average American better off.” only this source The Smoot-Hawley tariff worsened the Great Depression Leans right “It worsened the Great Depression.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs on inputs cost more jobs in the industries that use them than they protect in the producing industry Leans right “steel using and export oriented industries lost more jobs than steel and aluminum gained.” 1 of 3 sources Tariffs raise government revenue while raising costs for US consumers Very likely right “The terrorists did bring in government revenue about 61 billion. But here's the problem.” 1 of 3 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “95 to 100% pass through. You paid, not China.” 1 of 15 sources	2.22	new and sound
+2	New York Federal Reserve Study: U S Consumers and Companies Paid 90% of the 2025 Tariff Taxes South Gent Show claimsNovel (2)Right (6)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (8) Importers stockpiled goods ahead of the tariffs, delaying the pass-through to consumer prices Leans right “US importers loaded up on the on more far more foreign products than they needed in advance of Trump uh taxing them.” only this source DENIES Tariffs strengthen the dollar enough to offset much of their cost to US buyers Probably right “The US dollar has lost about 10% of its value against a basket of foreign currencies during Trump's second term.” only this source Tariffs on Brazilian goods are the main cause of the recent spike in US beef and coffee prices [early 2026] Leans partly right “coffee was up 18.3% both due to the Republican tariff taxes.” only this source Owners' equivalent rent measures a housing cost that no one actually pays Leans partly right “no homeowner actually pays rent to themselves.” only this source Importers absorb much of a new tariff at first and pass it to consumers over the following months Probably right “major companies will only gradually increase consumer prices to recoup the Republican tariff taxes paid by them” 1 of 4 sources DENIES Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely right “Moran may be the only economist in the world who actually believes that nonsense.” 1 of 6 sources DENIES Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely right “Besset claims that the tariffs are not inflationary, but he stated in early 2024 before he became Treasury Secretary that tariffs were inflationary.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “US companies and consumers paid 90% of the increase in the Republican tariff taxes imposed by Trump during his second term.” 1 of 15 sources	2.11	new and sound
+2	How the Iran War Spiked Oil Prices Wendover Productions Show claimsNovel (4)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (1)All (6) Short-run oil demand is so inelastic that a small supply loss causes a disproportionately large price spike Leans right “So, why does an 8% contraction in supply lead to a 60% jump in price?” only this source Pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz cushion the loss of supply when the strait closes Leans right “Collectively, these four pipelines provide considerable export capacity, dampening the impact of the strait's closure.” only this source Traders' expectations move oil prices ahead of actual changes in supply and demand Leans right “the day-to-day movements follow a mix of narrative and reality.” only this source Withdrawal of war-risk insurance can halt tanker traffic even where ships could physically pass Leans right “Regardless of the physical impediments, bureaucratic ones made it functionally impossible for oil to flow out of the Gulf.” only this source Oil prices will stay above their pre-war level after the Iran conflict because markets now price in Gulf supply risk Unknown “The market will likely price this uncertainty in long-term.” only this source The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “Prices, however, spiked a massive 60%, seven and a half times more than the contraction in supply.” 1 of 14 sources	2.05	new and sound
+2	Why Prices Rise Months After a Tariff, Even on Products Made at Home GoBrightward Show claimsNovel (3)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (5) Tariffs reach consumer prices gradually over many months as pre-tariff inventory sells through and input costs propagate Very likely right “everyday items began rising a few months after tariffs took effect” only this source The effective tariff rate actually collected is well below the announced statutory rate because of exemptions and supplier switching Very likely right “The collected rate averaged about 2/3 of the announced one, roughly 8 1/2% versus 13.” only this source Tariffs pass through only partially to shelf prices because distribution margins make up a large share of what consumers pay Very likely right “The tariff applies to the import value, not the shelf price.” 1 of 3 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “Paths two and three run through goods made at home, and they share a trait. They're slower.” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “the importing business, the importer of record, pays the duties, not the overseas seller” 1 of 15 sources	1.98	new and sound
+2	September inflation rises to 3.7%, driven by high diesel prices NBC News Show claimsNovel (3)Right (6)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (7) The Iran conflict has sharply raised US diesel and heating oil prices [2026] Probably right “WE KNOW DIESEL COSTS ARE UP ABOUT 75% SINCE THE WAR WITH IRAN BEGAN.” only this source Monetary tightening does little to curb inflation caused by an oil supply shock Leans right “YOU CAN'T DO MUCH ABOUT THAT WITH A QUARTER POINT HIKE.” only this source Inflation was falling toward the Fed's target before the Iran war pushed it back up [2026] Very likely right “WE WERE ACTUALLY HEADING TOWARDS THAT NUMBER EARLIER THIS YEAR. BUT THEN WITH THE IRAN WAR PRICES SHOT UP.” 1 of 2 sources Grocery prices have been flat to falling while energy drives inflation [September 2026] Very likely right “FOOD COMING IN FLAT 0%. THAT'S A BIT ENCOURAGING” 1 of 5 sources Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026] Probably partly right “EVERYTHING ELSE IS POPPING MONTH AFTER MONTH, YEAR AFTER YEAR.” 1 of 6 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “RIGHT NOW, INFLATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY HIGHER OIL PRICES.” 1 of 8 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “WITH INFLATION NOW AT 3.7% YOUR WAGES ARE JUST AT 3%. SO THE GAP IS GETTING WIDER HERE” 1 of 9 sources	1.98	new and sound
+2	‘So wrong’: Expert slams US economists who claimed tariffs would cause inflation spike News24 Show claimsNovel (3)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (4) Tariffs are now a major source of federal revenue Leans right “it raises 300 three or400 billion a year. That's a massive amount of money” only this source The tariffs did not push the US economy into recession [2025] Probably right “Well that's why the economists have been so wrong because they clearly haven't.” only this source The US has been among the fastest growing economies in the OECD [2025] Leans right “one of the fastest growing economists in the OECD” only this source The 2025 US tariffs did not produce the inflation spike that economists predicted Leans partly right “there'd be a big spike in inflation in the US because of the tariffs and it's just simply not happened.” only this source	1.95	new and sound
+2	Iran war costing each US household ~$2,000: Moodys CNN Show claimsNovel (3)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (1)All (7) The Iran war has raised US household borrowing costs through higher inflation and bond yields Leans right “inflation is up, bond rates are up, the Fed is raising interest rates for the first time in three years.” only this source Airlines pass higher jet fuel costs to passengers through fares and fees Leans right “They've responded by cutting some of their cheaper flights, by raising baggage fees and lifting airfare.” only this source Gasoline has been above four dollars a gallon on more days this year than in any previous year [2026] Very likely right “gas has never been above $4 a gallon as many times in a calendar year as this year.” only this source Strong employment and GDP growth can coexist with falling household purchasing power Probably partly right “more people working in wage growth right now. So those are some good things. They still have to address affordability.” 1 of 5 sources Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “once we get through the conflict with Iran, the price of gas goes down, the price of goods therefore goes down.” 1 of 6 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “Wage growth that isn't quite keeping up with inflation.” 1 of 9 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “Energy alone is $1,100 per family according to Moody's.” 1 of 14 sources	1.93	new and sound
+2	How the diesel price spike is rippling through nearly every part of the economy PBS NewsHour Show claimsNovel (3)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (6) Gasoline prices mainly follow the global oil market rather than presidential policy Probably right “the price of diesel we pay at the pump for gasoline for that matter, is set in a global market” only this source A US diesel export ban would lower prices only briefly before refiners cut output and global prices rise Leans right “But then the prices would rise again because refiners would reduce their production of diesel.” only this source Tariffs have hurt farmers by lowering crop prices and raising fertilizer costs Leans right “since this administration came in from tariffs when the prices plummeted. We never recruit. We ran more and fertilizer prices went through the roof” only this source Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are a major cause of high US diesel prices [autumn 2026] Leans partly right “Russia has had to ban its exports of diesel because the Ukrainians have been successful at destroying the refineries” 1 of 2 sources Rising diesel prices raise the cost of most other goods Leans right “it's important, it's important for the Federal Reserve and macroeconomists as an inflation risk” 1 of 4 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “coming from disruptions in first, the Arabian Gulf area due to the war with Iran” 1 of 14 sources	1.90	new and sound
+2	Tariffs Got Refunded. Why Didn't Prices Come Back Down? Grossly Show claimsNovel (3)Right (9)Wrong (1)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (10) Refunding past tariffs does not lower prices while replacement tariffs keep restocking costs high Leans right “The refund paid back a cost importers had already carried. It didn't remove the cost of the next container.” only this source Tariffs are a very costly way to create jobs because consumer costs per job protected run far above wages Leans right “Each new factory job the tariff created cost shoppers over eight hundred thousand dollars a year.” 1 of 2 sources Tariff revenue is little changed by the Supreme Court ruling because replacement tariffs collect similar amounts [2026] Leans right “Customs is still collecting about twenty-three billion dollars a month. Before all this, in January twenty twenty-five, it was about eight.” 1 of 2 sources Retailers raise prices as soon as a tariff is announced, pricing the next shipment rather than past costs Probably wrong “Prices went up within days of a new tariff, before any tariffed stock had even arrived. Stores were pricing the next container.” only this source Importers absorb much of a new tariff at first and pass it to consumers over the following months Probably right “Within seven months, shoppers were carrying about forty-five percent of the bill. The rest sat with American companies.” 1 of 4 sources DENIES A falling inflation rate means consumer prices are falling Almost certainly right “But inflation is how fast prices rise, not where they are.” 1 of 4 sources DENIES Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely right “If foreign sellers had carried the tax, they'd have cut their prices to make room for it. Mostly, they didn't.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “Their model has the tariffs still holding goods prices about two percent higher. That part doesn't fade.” 1 of 7 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “Dryers had no tariff on them. Their prices rose by about the same amount.” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “The New York Fed found nearly ninety percent of the burden of the twenty twenty-five tariffs fell on American firms and consumers.” 1 of 15 sources	1.80	new and sound
+2	Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Prices, NY Fed Study Finds \| Newstro Finance Newstro Show claimsNovel (3)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (7) Tariff pass-through studies cover only goods, a minority of consumer spending, so they cannot explain overall inflation Very likely right “Those categories represent about 1/5 of the overall consumption basket, so this analysis cannot by itself explain every household bill.” only this source Tariffs added measurably to US consumer inflation over the year after they took effect Probably right “tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to annual inflation in 67 categories of consumer goods by February 2026” 1 of 3 sources Tariffs pass through only partially to shelf prices because distribution margins make up a large share of what consumers pay Very likely right “about 26% of a uniform tariff increase reaches average consumer goods prices after a year” 1 of 3 sources DENIES A falling inflation rate means consumer prices are falling Almost certainly right “Slower inflation describes the pace of change. It does not automatically mean prices have returned to their earlier level.” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “the tariff contribution to annual goods inflation fades, while the price level remains above their no tariff comparison” 1 of 7 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “Imported materials become costlier and reduced import competition can affect markups.” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “the importer of record is responsible for applicable duties, taxes, and fees, even when using a broker” 1 of 15 sources	1.72	new and sound
+2	Scott Lincicome and Jeff Ferry \| Full Episode 2.21.25 \| Firing Line with Margaret Hoover \| PBS Firing Line with Margaret Hoover \| PBS Show claimsNovel (3)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (3)Untestable (0)All (10) Tariffs cannot raise enough revenue to replace the income tax because high rates shrink imports Leans right “when you actually apply those tariffs, imports go down. So you actually have a shrinking tax base” 1 of 2 sources The Smoot-Hawley tariff worsened the Great Depression Leans right “it plus the retaliation that it engendered contributed to the Great Depression. It didn't cause it.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs on inputs cost more jobs in the industries that use them than they protect in the producing industry Leans right “steel-consuming industries outnumber steel industries in terms of workers by 70 to 1” 1 of 3 sources Steel tariffs boosted domestic steel investment and jobs at only a small cost in higher steel prices Leans partly right “the 25% steel tariff led to the prices paid in America by steel buyers to rise by 2.4 percent.” only this source The 2018-2019 tariffs did not raise overall US consumer inflation Leans partly right “When Trump levied tariffs in 2018 and 2019, consumer price inflation actually fell. It didn't rise.” only this source Tariff revenue and domestic investment offset the costs tariffs impose on consumers Leans partly right “You can then use that money to give everybody who's earning less than $1 million a year a $1,200 cut in their income tax.” only this source Retaliation and uncertainty from tariffs slow investment and growth Leans right “not a day goes by that there's not some story about investors holding back investment because of tariff-related uncertainty.” 1 of 4 sources DENIES Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely right “in most cases, it is actually the American consumer, companies or individuals, paying it.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “not just the imported goods, but the domestic ones, as well.” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “tariffs are typically paid by consumers, whether that is companies or individuals in the United States.” 1 of 15 sources	1.72	new and sound
+2	The Real Reason Tariffs Haven't Raised Your Prices Yet Mr Redman Show claimsNovel (2)Right (5)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (6) The 2025 tariffs are the largest US tax increase in decades as a share of the economy Leans right “That makes it the largest tax increase as a share of the economy since 1993.” only this source The US average effective tariff rate reached its highest level since the 1930s [2025] Probably right “By later that year, it had climbed past 16%, the highest level since 1936.” only this source Tariffs have measurably raised US core inflation [2026] Leans partly right “Core inflation hit 3.2% 2% that March, the highest reading since 2023.” only this source Importers absorb much of a new tariff at first and pass it to consumers over the following months Probably right “businesses absorbed roughly 80% of tariff costs themselves that year, not out of generosity, out of fear.” 1 of 4 sources DENIES Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely right “For most of a year, it looked like tariffs were somehow free. They weren't free. They were financed.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “Fed researchers found evidence of something they called near full pass through with consumers now covering close to 90% of tariff costs” 1 of 15 sources	1.70	new and sound
+2	Who Really Pays the Tariff? The Fed's Own Research Has an Answer Finance Uncovered Show claimsNovel (4)Right (8)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (8) Refunds of tariffs struck down by courts go to importers, not to the consumers who paid higher prices Leans right “There's no mechanism to refund a higher grocery bill.” only this source Tariffs fall more heavily on lower-income households as a share of their income Leans right “One that lands hardest on the people with the least room to absorb it.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs pass through only partially to shelf prices because distribution margins make up a large share of what consumers pay Very likely right “about 1/4 of a tariff increase ends up passed through to consumer goods prices. Not all of it, roughly a quarter.” 1 of 3 sources Tariffs added measurably to US consumer inflation over the year after they took effect Probably right “tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation, peaking this February” 1 of 3 sources DENIES Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely right “the promise was simple. Foreigners pay. China pays, Mexico pays, not you. Well, the receipts are in now, and they tell a very different story.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “The inflation shock cools, but prices do not come back down. The damage is baked into the level.” 1 of 7 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “About a third comes from goods made right here in America” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “the tariff is collected from the American importer, not the foreign company” 1 of 15 sources	1.64	new and sound
+2	Scott Bessent Is at War With Prices — and Prices Are Winning! Patrick Boyle Show claimsNovel (3)Right (7)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (7) Tariffs and energy shocks that keep inflation elevated push long-term Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher Leans right “If investors think tariffs and retaliation and energy fights are going to keep inflation running closer to 4% than 2, they'll demand higher yields” only this source Tariffs, immigration restrictions and the Iran war are each adding to US inflation [2026] Leans right “the very inflation the administration's tariffs, immigration policy, and foreign policy are helping to stoke” only this source Inflation has run above the Fed's target for more than five years [September 2026] Very likely right “Inflation has been above the Fed's target for 5 years now.” 1 of 3 sources DENIES Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely right “They raise production costs, and they push consumer prices up.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “you haven't punished a foreign rival, you've just made American-built cars dramatically more expensive to build and to buy” 1 of 8 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “Oil exports have been squeezed hard, and energy prices have climbed, which feeds straight back into the inflation” 1 of 14 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “A tariff is just a tax paid by Americans, not by Canadians. The importer who brings the part across the border pays it” 1 of 15 sources	1.64	new and sound
+2	Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% CNBC Television Show claimsNovel (2)Right (4)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (5) Core inflation is a better guide to the underlying trend than headline inflation Leans right “WHY DOES IT LOOK AT THE CORE? BECAUSE IT THINKS THE CORE IS THE BEST WAY OF WHAT THE ADVANCED NUMBER OF WHERE THE HEADLINE” only this source Shelter costs are still rising faster than overall core inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “HOUSING UP ZERO FOUR. THAT HAD BEEN SOMETHING THAT WAS HELPING US AND IT'S NOT NECESSARILY HELPING US RIGHT NOW.” 1 of 2 sources The three-month annualized inflation rate is too volatile to guide policy Probably partly right “WHICH SHOWS YOU WHY YOU DON'T WANT TO RUN POLICY ON THE THREE MONTH ANNUALIZED RATE.” only this source Grocery prices have been flat to falling while energy drives inflation [September 2026] Very likely right “FOOD THOUGH WAS A GOOSE EGG.” 1 of 5 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “ENERGY UP 5.2 WITH GASOLINE LEADING THE WAY UP 9.1%.” 1 of 8 sources	1.56	new and sound
+2	Trump insists "we're richer now" despite report showing rising inflation CBS News Show claimsNovel (3)Right (6)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (6) DENIES Tariffs make the country that imposes them wealthier Leans right “You know what they cause? Wealth. They cause wealth. We're richer now.” only this source DENIES The US has no inflation [October 2026] Almost certainly right “the president is by his own government's data incorrect that we don't have inflation” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs added measurably to US consumer inflation over the year after they took effect Probably right “Inflation also jumped after those tariffs and the Fed's target rate is 2%” 1 of 3 sources DENIES Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely right “Inflation also jumped after those tariffs” 1 of 6 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “inflation is higher than when he took office. It was 3% then. It's 3.7% now.” 1 of 7 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “inflation is really just eating up all of the wage growth that Trump has talked about and then some” 1 of 9 sources	1.52	new and sound
+2	Real Wages Are Falling Going Into the Midterms Steve Rattner Show claimsNovel (2)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (4) Moderating gasoline prices quickly lift real wages Probably right “when gas prices start and other prices moderated under Bush, his real wages, people actually their purchasing power actually went up” only this source Real wages rose over the past year as pay outpaced inflation [January 2026] Almost certainly right “Trump actually was performing better on wages for the first year and a half of this term.” 1 of 2 sources Wage averages hide that low-income workers fare worse during inflation Leans partly right “even when wages are going up, the people at the bottom are being left behind and it's much worse for them” only this source Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “under Trump, they actually came down and a flatlined. So, again, voters are looking at no real wage increases under Trump.” 1 of 9 sources	1.48	new and sound
+2	FOMC Introductory Statement, September 16, 2026 Federal Reserve Show claimsNovel (3)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (5) Raising the policy rate brings inflation back toward target sooner Leans right “Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal.” only this source Consumer spending has stayed strong despite tariffs, higher gas prices and policy uncertainty [2026] Probably right “While uncertainty remains elevated owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.” 1 of 2 sources Inflation has run above the Fed's target for more than five years [September 2026] Very likely right “for more than 5 years, inflation has been running above target” 1 of 3 sources The US labor market is at full employment [2026] Probably partly right “Unemployment claims on a four-week moving average are running at levels consistent with full employment.” 1 of 2 sources Underlying inflation is running around three percent and not decelerating [2026] Very likely partly right “This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” 1 of 3 sources	1.41	new and sound
+2	Trade economist explains Supreme Court decision striking down Trump tariffs FOX 5 New York Show claimsNovel (2)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (5) Manufacturing employment fell during the first year of the new tariffs [2025] Probably right “the jobs report about manufacturing last year wasn't as promising as we expected and a lot of manufacturing jobs were actually lost last year” only this source Tariffs raised US inflation by a modest amount spread over time rather than causing a surge Probably right “inflation hasn't risen as much as people expected. Prices didn't go up as much as people expected throughout the economy.” 1 of 2 sources Removing tariffs lowers prices only gradually, as imposing them raised prices gradually Leans partly right “the tariffs affected the economy was slowly and built up over time and now when we remove them it's going to slowly and build down” only this source Tariff costs have led US businesses to hold back on hiring Leans partly right “they were significantly affected by tariffs and they were holding back on employment and jobs” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “economics has been teaching us for a hundred years that tariffs are mainly paid by domestic consumers” 1 of 15 sources	1.38	new and sound
+2	How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market Bloomberg Originals Show claimsNovel (3)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (1)All (4) Strategic stock releases, bypass pipelines and Chinese import cuts kept the Hormuz closure from producing the feared oil price spike Leans right “Existing surplus, strategic national reserves, and commercial inventory offset nine million of that.” only this source US strategic reserve releases and record exports cushioned Western fuel prices relative to Asia during the Hormuz closure Leans right “in relative terms, the West has been cushioned from the spike compared to some of the poorer nations” only this source Renewable electricity does little to offset an oil supply shock because little oil is used for power generation Leans right “Solar and oil don't really compete with each other because very little oil is used in the power sector.” 1 of 2 sources Bypass pipelines and alternative routes will permanently reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz Unknown “you won't necessarily need as many ships to go through Hormuz in the long term” only this source	1.25	new and sound
+2	Tariffs Explained with Bananas Primate Economics Show claimsNovel (2)Right (6)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (6) Tariffs invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners Leans right “Banana Land government can retaliate. Then Monkeyland could retaliate. Then Banana Land. This is called a trade war.” only this source Tariffs raise government revenue while raising costs for US consumers Very likely right “Monkeyland government makes money every time monkeys import bananas from banana land.” 1 of 3 sources DENIES Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely right “So if tariffs make everything more expensive, why do we even have them?” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers Very likely right “Some monkey businesses import other things from banana land to help run business. Tariffs make these more expensive.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs raise the prices of domestically produced goods as well as imports Very likely right “Local price can also go up to just under banana land banana.” 1 of 8 sources Tariffs are paid by the importing country's consumers and businesses, not by the exporter Very likely right “Banana land banana price usually stay the same, but now Monkeyland monkeys also have to pay Monkeyland government to buy them.” 1 of 15 sources	1.19	new and sound
+2	Trump faces ‘bipartisan pushback’ on diesel deal with Russia as he tries to lower prices NBC News Show claimsNovel (2)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (4) Importing a few million barrels of Russian diesel is too small to materially lower US diesel prices Leans right “2.25 MILLION BARRELS OF DIESEL THAT THIS DEAL COULD PRODUCE IS LESS THAN A DAY'S SUPPLY FOR THE AMERICAN TRANSPORT SECTOR.” only this source Short of ending the Iran war, the administration has few tools to lower diesel prices quickly Leans right “THERE'S VERY LITTLE THAT THEY CAN ACTUALLY DO TO MATERIALLY BRING DOWN THE COST OF DIESEL SHORT OF END THE IRAN WAR” only this source Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are a major cause of high US diesel prices [autumn 2026] Leans partly right “TO MAKE PROBLEMS FOR OUR FARMERS, OUR RANCHERS WITH DIESEL FUEL, BECAUSE RUSSIA SUPPLIES A LARGE PORTION OF THE DIESEL FUEL THROUGHOUT THE WORLD.” 1 of 2 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “IT'S THE WAR IN IRAN THAT'S LARGELY CAUSING FUEL PRICES TO RISE.” 1 of 14 sources	1.18	new and sound
+2	Trump says gas prices "will go down rapidly" when Iran war ends as Americans face rising costs CBS Mornings Show claimsNovel (1)Right (2)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (1)All (4) Gasoline prices have reached their highest level since the 2022 spike [spring 2026] Almost certainly right “Gas prices are now at their highest point since mid-2022” only this source Spring refinery maintenance and the switch to summer gasoline push pump prices up seasonally Leans partly right “before we get into the summer months when gas tends to get more expensive anyway.” 1 of 2 sources Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “The gasoline, the oil will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over.” 1 of 6 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “a $1.40 increase since the war with Iran began.” 1 of 14 sources	1.13	new and sound
+2	Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation; They're Worse Tax Foundation Show claimsNovel (3)Right (4)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (4) Without Fed accommodation, tariffs cause layoffs because nominal wages do not fall Leans right “firms have to adjust their compensation costs by laying off workers or reducing hiring” only this source Whether tariffs raise the overall price level depends on how the Federal Reserve responds Leans right “whether they affect the overall price level depends on how the Fed responds” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs reduce household real income whether the cost shows up as higher prices or lower nominal incomes Leans right “In both cases, real incomes fall.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “Accommodation would result in a one-time increase in the price level.” 1 of 7 sources	1.10	new and sound
+2	Why inflation is heating up again across almost every category.mp4 Yahoo Finance Show claimsNovel (2)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (4) Memory-chip prices are feeding through into consumer electronics prices [2026] Leans right “the memory chip pricing has been feeding its way through into some of those consumer electronics products” only this source Inflation was falling toward the Fed's target before the Iran war pushed it back up [2026] Very likely right “That is pretty significantly spiking back up with everything we see going on in the Middle East and Ukraine.” 1 of 2 sources Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026] Probably partly right “almost every category saw re-acceleration. Energy's not alone.” 1 of 6 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “we have continued to have energy prices that have been persistently high here.” 1 of 8 sources	1.00	new and sound
+2	Amos Hochstein on the Iran war’s impact on energy: Oil prices are not reflecting reality CNBC Television Show claimsNovel (1)Right (1)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (3)All (5) Gasoline prices are high relative to the current crude oil price [autumn 2026] Very likely right “GASOLINE SHOULD BE LOWER AT AN $81 OIL PRICE. BUT GASOLINE IS OVER $4.” only this source Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz despite the declared end of the war [autumn 2026] Unknown “IRAN TOOK CONTROL OF THE STRAITS, RIGHT BY CLOSING THEM NOW.” only this source Oil prices are being held below fundamentals by strategic reserve releases and political headlines [autumn 2026] Unknown “THE MARKET IS TREATING THE SPR AS THOUGH THAT'S PRODUCTION. IT'S NOT PRODUCTION, IT'S NOT RENEWABLE, IT'S NOT SUSTAINABLE.” only this source A return to war with Iran would raise US consumer prices sharply [autumn 2026] Unknown “THE CONSUMER PRICES ARE GOING TO GO UP MUCH HIGHER, MUCH FASTER.” only this source The US strategic petroleum reserve is too depleted to keep offsetting supply losses [autumn 2026] Leans partly right “WE'RE HAVING A HARDER TIME RELEASING OUT OF THE SPR BECAUSE WHY THEY'RE LOWER SO THEY'RE CONSTRAINED.” only this source	1.00	new and sound
+2	Economist breaks down new inflation report and what's driving prices higher PBS NewsHour Show claimsNovel (1)Right (3)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (5) Lower-income households are relying on credit and missing payments as prices outrun pay [2026] Leans right “people in the bottom 30% don't have any extra money and are relying on credit cards and starting to miss payments” only this source Underlying inflation is running around three percent and not decelerating [2026] Very likely partly right “this is more than a gas and oil problem and that it's going to be harder to get it down than we expected” 1 of 3 sources Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026] Probably partly right “the war in Iran is not causing medical care, dental care, toys, apparel. I hope nobody's shopping for a suit. Those really jumped up.” 1 of 6 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “Half of it is coming from the high gas and diesel prices” 1 of 8 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “There's been no wage growth once you adjust for inflation” 1 of 9 sources	0.91	mixed
+2	Trump makes new promises on gas prices as Iran war reaches 60-day mark CBS News Show claimsNovel (1)Right (2)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (1)All (4) DENIES Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [spring 2026] Almost certainly right “they are now at their highest point since mid-2022” 1 of 2 sources Gasoline prices rise seasonally into the summer driving months Probably partly right “before we get into the summer months when gas prices tend to get more expensive anyway” only this source Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “The gasoline, the oil will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over.” 1 of 6 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “US gas prices have been climbing for 9 straight weeks from an average of $2.98 a gallon in late February to $4.39 a gallon now” 1 of 14 sources	0.85	mixed
+2	Thomas Sowell Discusses The Trump Tariffs \| Uncommon Knowledge \| Full Interview on April 15, 2025 Hoover Institution Show claimsNovel (1)Right (2)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (3) A worldwide trade war reduces international trade and leaves every country worse off Leans right “everybody loses because everybody follows suit and all that happens is that you get a great reduction in international trade.” only this source Tariffs used briefly as bargaining leverage do far less harm than tariffs kept as long-run policy Leans partly right “So if this is just a set of shortrun PS for various various uh limited uh objectives limited in time, fine maybe.” only this source Retaliation and uncertainty from tariffs slow investment and growth Leans right “that is the formula for having people s hang on to their money until they figure out what you're going to do.” 1 of 4 sources	0.82	mixed
+2	US Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Five Months Bloomberg Television Show claimsNovel (0)Right (1)Wrong (0)Partly (1)Untestable (1)All (3) Hotter-than-expected core inflation raises the odds of a Fed rate hike [autumn 2026] Unknown “YOU CAN HAVE A LITTLE CHAT ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF A DECISION OF THE INTEREST RATE HIKE.” only this source Grocery prices have been flat to falling while energy drives inflation [September 2026] Very likely right “FOOD AND HOME GROCERY PRICES WERE DOWN 1/10 OF A PERCENT WHICH IS INTERESTING BUT GASOLINE PRICES UP 9.1%” 1 of 5 sources Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026] Probably partly right “RECREATION USED CARS, TRUCKS, EDUCATION, MEDICAL CARE APPAREL. NOT A LOT OF DISINFLATION THERE.” 1 of 6 sources	0.23	mixed
+2	Young Voters Helped Trump Win. How Do They Feel Now? \| WSJ The Wall Street Journal Show claimsNovel (0)Right (1)Wrong (0)Partly (0)Untestable (1)All (2) Gasoline prices will fall once the administration's Iran policy succeeds Unknown “I think if the Trump administration is successful, which I think they will be in these various areas, I think they will go down.” only this source The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “it directly is affecting our gas prices and our cost of living domestically” 1 of 14 sources	0.05	mixed
+1	The Trump Economy Is Starting To BOOM The Right-Wing Populist Show claimsNovel (3)Right (4)Wrong (2)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (8) Inflation is low by historical standards [January 2026] Probably right “the CPI as the lowest we've had in five years” only this source Inflation fell in the year after the 2025 tariffs were imposed [January 2026] Very likely right “the rate has actually gone down, not up, even since the tariffs were implemented” only this source Real wages rose over the past year as pay outpaced inflation [January 2026] Almost certainly right “wage growth outpaced inflation, meaning there was actual real wage growth this past year” 1 of 2 sources Real wages never grew in any year of the Biden administration Almost certainly wrong “That never happened under the Biden administration.” only this source Consumer prices only fall outright during a recession or depression Probably partly right “the only times prices will actually decrease is if you have a recession or a depression” only this source Gasoline and egg prices are down under the current administration [early 2026] Probably partly right “Gas prices are down, egg prices are dramatically down.” only this source DENIES A falling inflation rate means consumer prices are falling Almost certainly right “prices are technically expanding, but the actual rate is decreasing” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “Prices have not increased at all. In fact, inflation, the rate has actually gone down, not up, even since the tariffs were implemented.” 1 of 7 sources	2.85	new and sound
+1	Bigger paychecks take center stage in Trump’s economic push Fox Business Show claimsNovel (4)Right (5)Wrong (2)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (8) Grocery and housing prices remain high even as the inflation rate has fallen [late 2025] Very likely right “WHEN YOU GO TO THE SUPERMARKET A LOT OF THINGS ARE STILL GOING UP. PRICES ARE STILL HIGH IN A LOT OF AREAS.” only this source Removing the tariffs would be good for the US economy Leans right “THE SUPREME COURT WILL RULE AGAINST HIM ON TARIFFS AND THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY” only this source Tariff revenue is small relative to federal interest costs and the deficit Leans right “WE BROUGHT IN ABOUT $200 BILLION IN TARIFF REVENUE FOR THE FULL FISCAL YEAR. SO THAT COVERS TOO -- TWO MONTHS ON INTEREST” only this source Consumer sentiment about current conditions hit a record low [December 2025] Leans right “CURRENT CONDITIONS SLIDE TO A RECORD LOW.” only this source Cooling inflation in late 2025 reflected a slowing economy rather than policy success [late 2025] Leans partly right “ONE REASON INFLATION MIGHT BE COMING DOWN IS BECAUSE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS AT 4.6%, SAME FOR OIL.” only this source There has been no inflation under the current administration [2025] Almost certainly wrong “PRACTICALLY NO INFLATION AND WE ARE TAKING IN HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “BECAUSE OF TARIFFS WE ARE TAKING AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MORE THAN WE EVER HAD BEFORE. WITH NO INFLATION BY THE WAY, NO INFLATION.” 1 of 7 sources Tariffs push prices up once, raising the price level, rather than causing ongoing inflation Probably right “I NEVER THOUGHT THE TARIFFS WERE INFLATIONARY. THEY ARE A SLIVER OF A VALUE-ADDED TAX SOURCE CONSUMPTION TAX. IT'S ALREADY BAKED IN.” 1 of 7 sources	2.70	new and sound
+1	Fact check: Trump says food and gas prices are down WRAL Show claimsNovel (3)Right (3)Wrong (1)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (5) Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [2025] Almost certainly right “It was $4 and $5 for a gallon of gas. Think of that for ga gasoline. And now it's probably 225.” only this source Electricity prices are rising even as fuel prices fall [2025] Leans right “if we look at electricity by itself, those prices are up” only this source Beef prices are rising sharply [2025] Leans right “the costs of things like ground beef and bacon, which are up more than 10%” only this source Grocery prices are down under the current administration [2025] Very likely wrong “we have groceries are down” only this source Energy prices are down overall under the current administration [2025] Very likely partly right “energy is way down” only this source	2.30	new and sound
+1	Trump's trade war - 6 months later Money & Macro Show claimsNovel (4)Right (5)Wrong (1)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (7) Tariffs have had only a modest effect on US inflation so far [mid-2025] Leans right “tariffs have not caused much inflation in the United States” only this source The 2025 tariffs weakened rather than strengthened the dollar because investors pulled back from US assets Leans right “the prediction that the Trump tariffs would increase the value of the dollar is not holding up at all” only this source Tariff revenue is far too small to offset the deficit increase from the 2025 tax cuts Leans right “there are bringing in a lot of money, but not enough to make up for Trump's massive tax cuts” only this source Announced investment pledges overstate actual new investment because they include projects already planned Leans right “this included projects that they were going to be doing anyway” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs have slowed US economic growth [2025] Leans partly right “So tariffs are bad for economic growth, and that prediction is holding up quite well so far.” only this source Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely wrong “foreign exporters are paying 53% of us there so far” 1 of 4 sources Retaliation and uncertainty from tariffs slow investment and growth Leans right “tariff uncertainty is making it difficult for firms to make investment decisions all around the world” 1 of 4 sources	2.17	new and sound
+1	Inflation Is Catching Up to Wages — Are Americans Losing Buying Power? Econ with Sarah, PhD Show claimsNovel (2)Right (2)Wrong (0)Partly (3)Untestable (0)All (5) Inflation is about to overtake wage growth, cutting real purchasing power [spring 2026] Almost certainly right “We are expeditiously close to the point where we will see the rate of change of inflation supersedes the average growth in wages.” only this source Moderate inflation is harmless if wages keep pace Leans right “inflation in and of itself, if if it is controlled, is not inherently a bad thing if wages are able to keep up with it” only this source When inflation outruns wages, workers demand raises that push prices up further in a wage-price spiral Leans partly right “demand higher wages in order to keep up with those costs, which then lead companies to then increase prices further” only this source Households are taking on more debt to maintain living standards as prices outpace pay [2026] Leans partly right “we are already seeing signs that this is happening with people having rising credit card debt” only this source Credit card default rates have reached 2008 levels [2026] Leans partly right “the amount of credit card debt defaults that we've seen in the last year is reaching the same level that it did in 2008” only this source	2.15	new and sound
+1	FOMC Press Conference, September 16, 2026 Federal Reserve Show claimsNovel (4)Right (4)Wrong (1)Partly (3)Untestable (1)All (9) Monetary policy cannot offset an energy price spike but can stop it spreading into broader inflation Leans right “We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices” only this source Inflation hurts households without financial assets the most Leans right “the least well off are the ones who have the most to gain from stable prices” only this source Inflation pressures in 2026 are global rather than specific to the US [2026] Leans right “most advanced economies are facing price pressures” only this source Inflation has run above the Fed's target for more than five years [September 2026] Very likely right “for more than five years, inflation has been running above target” 1 of 3 sources Underlying inflation did not improve over the summer of 2026 [summer 2026] Very likely wrong “This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” only this source Inflation can be returned to target without raising unemployment [2026] Unknown “I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective.” only this source The US labor market is at full employment [2026] Probably partly right “the unemployment rate is basically running consistent with full employment” 1 of 2 sources Higher long-term Treasury yields in 2026 mainly reflect stronger growth [2026] Leans partly right “First is economic strength. Part of the reason why we've seen, over the course of 2026, long-term yields go up is, the economy has strengthened.” 1 of 2 sources Price increases have broadened beyond energy into most CPI categories [September 2026] Probably partly right “Too many categories are still posting increases above 3 percent on both a 6- and 12-month basis.” 1 of 6 sources	2.09	new and sound
+1	JD Vance Gave the Trump Economy an A+, So I Fact Checked His Numbers Tom Powell Jr Show claimsNovel (3)Right (5)Wrong (1)Partly (1)Untestable (0)All (7) DENIES The administration has secured well over ten trillion dollars of new investment in the US Leans right “his numbers about how much investment have been done uh uh are false” only this source DENIES The US is experiencing a manufacturing and factory-construction boom under the current administration Leans right “He then said that we had a manufacturing boom. We haven't.” only this source Announced investment pledges overstate actual new investment because they include projects already planned Leans right “independent reviews find no documentation supporting multi-trillion-dollar figures” 1 of 2 sources The rise in prices since 2025 is a direct result of the administration's policies Leans partly right “everything is more expensive now. Due due to a direct result of policies from the from the administration” only this source Inflation was at a multi-decade high when the current administration took office [January 2025] Almost certainly wrong “We inherited the worst inflation crisis in 48 years in the United States of America.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs on imported inputs raise costs for domestic manufacturers Very likely right “new tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum have raised input costs and compressed margins for many domestic producers” 1 of 6 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “inflation, mortgage rates, and gas prices are all higher than when you took office” 1 of 7 sources	1.77	new and sound
+1	Inflation higher than expected. CNN rolls tape on Trump's economic promises CNN Show claimsNovel (1)Right (5)Wrong (1)Partly (3)Untestable (1)All (10) Grocery inflation has slowed sharply [September 2026] Very likely right “food at home. This is groceries up by less than 2%. This is the best number of the of the president's second term.” only this source Overall consumer prices will fall under the administration's policies Leans wrong “But prices will come down. You just watch, you'll come down and they'll come down fast.” only this source AI data-center demand is pushing up electricity and computer prices [2026] Leans partly right “That's above the overall rate of inflation. And that reflects in part a lot of demand driven by the AI boom.” only this source The US economy is booming [2026] Probably partly right “The economy is the greatest economy we've ever had by far.” 1 of 3 sources Rising diesel prices raise the cost of most other goods Leans right “diesel is near all time highs. That's lifting the cost of transport, fuel, food.” 1 of 4 sources Strong employment and GDP growth can coexist with falling household purchasing power Probably partly right “The economy looks great. Actually, unemployment is at 4.2%. We call that full employment. Retail sales 1.2%. People keep spending despite high prices.” 1 of 5 sources Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “That war is going to end very soon. And when it does, your prices are going to come tumbling down. They already are.” 1 of 6 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “inflation is higher right now than it was when the president started his second term” 1 of 7 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “for six months in a row, for the half a year, real wages adjusted for inflation, they're getting smaller” 1 of 9 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “The fingerprints of the war are all over this report.” 1 of 14 sources	1.69	new and sound
+1	They Took Gas Out of the Inflation Number Tim Talks Finance Show claimsNovel (1)Right (3)Wrong (1)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (6) Monthly inflation has accelerated for several consecutive months [autumn 2026] Almost certainly right “Prices sped up four months in a row.” only this source DENIES Core inflation is a better guide to the underlying trend than headline inflation Leans wrong “That is core inflation. It is inflation with the parts that hurt taken out.” only this source Inflation is caused by the government creating more money Leans partly right “When the government needs more of them, it makes more of them. That is where inflation comes from in the first place.” only this source Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it a hedge against currency inflation Leans partly right “To find something the printer cannot reach.” only this source Grocery prices have been flat to falling while energy drives inflation [September 2026] Very likely right “Groceries actually dipped a little in September.” 1 of 5 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “That one item caused more than half of the whole month's increase.” 1 of 8 sources	1.56	new and sound
+1	Trump says 'tariffs don't cause inflation' despite latest inflation numbers WHAS11 Show claimsNovel (3)Right (4)Wrong (1)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (5) DENIES High diesel prices are caused by Democratic environmental regulations Probably right “Why has it gone up? Because the Democrats' environmental regulations have not.” only this source DENIES The US has no inflation [October 2026] Almost certainly right “But Trump denies it's a problem. -- But -- we don't have inflation” 1 of 2 sources Higher diesel, fertilizer and shipping costs from the oil shock pass through to consumer goods prices with a lag of months Leans right “the lifeblood of America is diesel fuel. Everything you eat, consume, wear is delivered.” 1 of 3 sources US diesel prices reached record highs during the Iran conflict [spring 2026] Almost certainly wrong “diesel, the fuel used to move almost everything you can buy, is up 72%” 1 of 2 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “Inflation is now at 3.7% compared to a year ago, up nearly 1% since President Trump took office.” 1 of 7 sources	1.38	new and sound
+1	President Trump Makes an Announcement, Oct. 7, 2026 The White House Show claimsNovel (1)Right (3)Wrong (2)Partly (3)Untestable (1)All (9) US stock markets have set repeated record highs since the 2024 election [2026] Leans right “Since the election, US stock markets have set all-time records” only this source Core inflation is close to the Fed's target [autumn 2026] Probably partly right “The core inflation actually dropped last month and is approaching the Fed's target.” only this source Tariffs are driving a wave of domestic factory construction Leans partly right “these companies are building massive plants, all because of tariffs” only this source The US economy is growing faster than any economy in history [2026] Almost certainly wrong “We have the greatest growth of any country, maybe ever in history” only this source A bilateral trade deficit is money lost to the trading partner Leans wrong “we've been losing, on average, $80 billion to $90 billion a year with Canada” only this source Higher long-term Treasury yields in 2026 mainly reflect stronger growth [2026] Leans partly right “it's a real rate issue. So it's because of growth. Growth here is strong.” 1 of 2 sources Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “oil will come down to levels that were, I think, maybe even lower than they were before the war started” 1 of 6 sources Gasoline prices are the main driver of the recent rise in headline inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly right “headline inflation is high because of the energy shock” 1 of 8 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “once we get on the other side of this Iran conflict, energy markets are going to be well supplied” 1 of 14 sources	1.37	new and sound
+1	Trump says "I love the inflation" because U.S. is "taking" Iranian oil CBS News Show claimsNovel (1)Right (1)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (1)All (4) Oil prices have stayed well below the worst-case forecasts made when the Iran war began [spring 2026] Leans right “And the other thing is that oil would go to $250 a barrel. It's at 85. And which is pretty amazing.” only this source Current inflation is a temporary by-product of the Iran war that will reverse when the war ends [spring 2026] Leans partly right “I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now.” only this source US seizures of Iranian oil cargoes are holding down world oil prices [spring 2026] Unknown “we blasted the crap out of it. We took out That's why oil is $85 a barrel.” only this source The US economy is booming [2026] Probably partly right “the one bad thing will be we hit the best economy we've ever hit” 1 of 3 sources	0.85	mixed
+1	Republicans who slammed Biden over gas prices preach patience under Trump MS NOW Show claimsNovel (1)Right (2)Wrong (0)Partly (3)Untestable (1)All (6) Higher diesel, fertilizer and shipping costs from the oil shock pass through to consumer goods prices with a lag of months Leans right “all the stuff that is related to fuel costs, we're going to end up seeing a spike in costs for those goods as well” 1 of 3 sources Rising credit card debt alongside a low savings rate shows households are running out of money rather than spending from strength Leans partly right “YOU RELY ON A CREDIT CARD WHEN YOU RUN OUT OF SAVINGS” only this source Full Hormuz oil flows will take about a year to restore after the conflict Unknown “experts predict that it could be a year before we're back to the sort of capacity that we had” only this source Gasoline prices rise quickly after an oil shock but fall back slowly Leans partly right “gas prices go up very fast. They come down very slow” 1 of 2 sources Strong employment and GDP growth can coexist with falling household purchasing power Probably partly right “If you look at the stock market, which they do tout regularly, a lot of it's due to the big seven tech companies.” 1 of 5 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “Gasoline and diesel fuel and oil is a product of the conflict in Iran.” 1 of 14 sources	0.66	mixed
+1	Trump claims ‘roaring’ economy but these Americans aren’t feeling it AP Archive Show claimsNovel (0)Right (0)Wrong (0)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (2) Gains in the aggregate economy are accruing to the wealthy while lower-income households fall behind [2026] Leans partly right “the billionaires are doing great as always, but not the people who are making in the lower quintile” only this source Strong employment and GDP growth can coexist with falling household purchasing power Probably partly right “you can't just say, "Oh, GDP is going up. Oh, the stock market's going up. Everyone's doing great."” 1 of 5 sources	0.32	mixed
0	State Of The Union 2026 Rapid Recap: Trump's Biggest Economic Remarks CNBC Show claimsNovel (1)Right (1)Wrong (3)Partly (3)Untestable (0)All (7) Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [early 2026] Almost certainly right “under my predecessor, it was, quite honestly, a disaster, is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states” only this source Core inflation fell to its lowest level in more than five years [late 2025] Almost certainly partly right “my administration has driven core inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years” only this source Prices of groceries, rent, hotels and cars are lower than when the administration took office [early 2026] Very likely wrong “The cost of chicken, butter, fruit, hotels, automobiles, rent is lower today than when I took office by a lot.” only this source Mortgage rates are at their lowest in four years and falling [early 2026] Leans partly right “Mortgage rates are the lowest in four years and falling fast” only this source Tariffs could replace the federal income tax Leans wrong “the tariffs paid for by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern day system of income tax” 1 of 2 sources The US economy is booming [2026] Probably partly right “our nation is back bigger, better, richer, and stronger than ever before” 1 of 3 sources Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely wrong “Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars.” 1 of 4 sources	1.70	mixed
0	Economy looks strong despite recession fears: Jobs, inflation & Trump tariffs explained ABC 7 News - WJLA Show claimsNovel (2)Right (2)Wrong (2)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (4) The US economy is resilient with no recession in sight [early 2026] Very likely right “It's proving to be surprisingly resilient.” only this source Recent job gains are concentrated in health care, signalling underlying weakness [early 2026] Very likely right “almost all the jobs created, uh, in this last report were in the health care sector” only this source Interest rates are stable and likely to fall [early 2026] Probably wrong “Interest rates are stable and hopefully coming down.” only this source The new Fed chair is a hawk who wants to cut rates aggressively Leans wrong “he is what is known as an interest rate hawk, meaning he aggressively wants to bring interest rates down” only this source	1.55	mixed
0	Bessent Says Tariff Revenue Will Be Little Changed in 2026 Bloomberg Television Show claimsNovel (2)Right (2)Wrong (2)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (4) Replacement legal authorities let the administration keep a global tariff in place despite the ruling [2026] Probably right “There is something called Section 122, which grants the president five months to install to put a global tariff on.” only this source Tariff revenue is little changed by the Supreme Court ruling because replacement tariffs collect similar amounts [2026] Leans right “the total amount of revenue the Treasury will collect this year will be little changed if changed at all” 1 of 2 sources Non-emergency Section 232 and 301 tariffs raised about as much revenue as the emergency tariffs [2025] Leans wrong “the existing revenues, you know, under the 230 twos, under the three oh ones and some other collection mechanisms were roughly equal to the EU” only this source Refunds of the struck-down emergency tariffs will be delayed by years of litigation Leans wrong “my sense is that could be dragged out for weeks, months, years” only this source	0.85	mixed
0	Trump denies there's inflation; Talarico addresses illness conspiracy theories Face the Nation Show claimsNovel (0)Right (2)Wrong (3)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (7) The US has no inflation [October 2026] Almost certainly wrong “we don't have inflation” only this source Inflation rose after the 2025 tariffs took effect [2026] Probably partly right “Inflation also jumped after those tariffs” only this source Tariffs make the country that imposes them wealthier Leans wrong “You know what they cause? Wealth. They cause wealth. We're richer now.” 1 of 4 sources Strong employment and GDP growth can coexist with falling household purchasing power Probably partly right “while the stock market is doing fine and the unemployment rate isn't bad, other indicators are not so hot” 1 of 5 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “we don't have inflation and tariffs so cause inflation. You know what they cause? Wealth.” 1 of 7 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “inflation is higher than when he took office. It was 3% then, it's 3.7% now.” 1 of 7 sources Real wages have fallen as inflation outpaced pay growth [2026] Almost certainly right “inflation is really just eating up all of the wage growth that Trump has talked about and then some” 1 of 9 sources	0.66	mixed
0	‘ZERO’ percent chance gas prices drop, Iran war ends after midterms: Ret. Lt. General MS NOW Show claimsNovel (0)Right (1)Wrong (1)Partly (1)Untestable (1)All (4) DENIES The US economy is booming [2026] Probably partly right “The country is booming, the country's booming.” only this source DENIES Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “Gasoline's going to drop like a rock, just like it was just before.” only this source US diesel prices reached record highs during the Iran conflict [spring 2026] Almost certainly wrong “THE NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR A GALLON OF DIESEL IS ALREADY THE HIGHEST IT'S EVER BEEN” 1 of 2 sources The Iran conflict has materially raised US gasoline prices Probably right “the price of gas, the price of all kinds of other things, having an impact on the politics of this country” 1 of 14 sources	0.05	mixed
-1	FULL EVENT: President Trump Delivers Emphatic Remarks at Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 Right Side Broadcasting Network Show claimsNovel (1)Right (1)Wrong (7)Partly (2)Untestable (1)All (11) Inflation today is substantially below its peak under the previous administration Almost certainly right “we inherited the worst inflation in history. Think of it. And now the last three months we have 1.7.” only this source Inflation is low by historical standards [September 2026] Very likely wrong “Again, we have very little inflation.” only this source Tariffs lead foreign manufacturers to build plants in the US to avoid them Leans partly right “in order to avoid tariffs, they're all building their plants in here because they don't want to pay tariffs.” only this source Tariffs have triggered a record wave of factory construction in the US [2026] Leans wrong “we're building more factories and plants in the United States right now than at any time in the history of our country.” only this source Tariff revenue is large enough to fund a cash payment to every adult citizen Leans wrong “The reason is that we're taking in massive amounts of money through tariffs and record setting economic success.” only this source Lumber tariffs keep US sawmills operating at only a small cost to lumber buyers Leans partly right “if I took the tariffs off and let's say we got uh a penny off the cost of your lumber” only this source The previous administration presided over the worst inflation in US history Leans wrong “they gave us the worst inflation in American history, the highest energy prices in American history” 1 of 2 sources Recent economic growth has raised the purchasing power of typical workers Very likely wrong “income for hardworking Americans has soared to the highest level ever recorded.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs make the country that imposes them wealthier Leans wrong “You know what they cause? Wealth. They cause wealth.” 1 of 4 sources Gasoline prices will return to their pre-war level when the Iran conflict ends Unknown “it's going to end very quickly. And when that happens, your oil is going to come way down.” 1 of 6 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “But we don't have inflation and tariffs don't cause inflation.” 1 of 7 sources	1.38	mostly wrong
-1	Trump tells America the economy is strong, blames Biden for nation's struggles KOMO News Show claimsNovel (1)Right (1)Wrong (7)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (8) Gasoline is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [December 2025] Almost certainly right “Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon. in much of the country.” only this source Consumer prices overall are falling under the current administration [late 2025] Almost certainly wrong “I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast.” only this source The US has no inflation [December 2025] Almost certainly wrong “inflation is stopped, wages are up, prices are down” only this source The administration has secured well over ten trillion dollars of new investment in the US Leans wrong “I've secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States” only this source The US is experiencing a manufacturing and factory-construction boom under the current administration Leans wrong “They're building factories and plants at levels we haven't seen.” only this source Grocery prices are falling under the current administration [late 2025] Very likely wrong “The price of eggs is down 82% since March. And everything else is falling rapidly.” only this source Inflation was at a multi-decade high when the current administration took office [January 2025] Almost certainly wrong “When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years.” 1 of 2 sources Recent economic growth has raised the purchasing power of typical workers Very likely wrong “for the first time in years, wages are rising much faster than inflation” 1 of 2 sources	0.92	mostly wrong
-1	Trump’s Tariffs DON’T Cause Inflation — Jim Rickards Exposes Economic Truths & Musk Feud BlazeTV News Show claimsNovel (1)Right (1)Wrong (4)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (7) Government debt is sustainable when nominal GDP grows faster than the debt Leans right “the debt is growing more slowly than the economy, which means the debt to GDP ratio is going down” only this source Tariff costs are absorbed in importer and exporter margins rather than passed to consumers Very likely wrong “The one place it does not go is to the consumer” only this source Firms cannot pass tariffs on because consumers are too stretched to accept higher prices Probably wrong “if you could raise prices to consumers, you would just do it. You wouldn't need a tariff as an excuse.” only this source Tariffs do not slow economic growth Leans wrong “it doesn't slow the economy the way the mainstream economist said” only this source Tariffs cut the trade deficit and boosted GDP [spring 2025] Leans partly right “it has now been cut by more than half. And the big drop in imports seems to be where everyone's pointing.” only this source Economists' warnings that tariffs would tank the economy proved wrong [2025] Leans partly right “claiming that the Trump tariffs, they were going to tank the economy. So what's going on here? That's that's not the case right now” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “So the point being tariffs don't cause inflation.” 1 of 7 sources	0.88	mostly wrong
-1	Trump Responds To Concerns About Market Reaction To Tariffs: ‘Tariffs Don’t Cause Inflation’ Forbes Breaking News Show claimsNovel (0)Right (0)Wrong (5)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (7) The first-term tariffs raised large revenue without raising inflation [2018-2020] Leans partly right “I had almost no inflation and took in uh $600 billion dollar of money from other countries” only this source Tariffs cause only temporary short-term disruption Leans partly right “there could be some temporary short-term disruption and people will understand that” only this source Other countries charge the US tariffs while the US charges them none Leans wrong “other countries charge us tariffs we don't charge them tariffs” only this source The EU's VAT acts like a tariff on US exports Leans wrong “the European Union charges us 20% plus plus plus a vat tax called a vat tax very similar” only this source Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely wrong “took in uh $600 billion dollar of money from other countries and uh tariffs don't cause inflation” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs make the country that imposes them wealthier Leans wrong “the tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “tariffs don't cause inflation they cause success cause big success” 1 of 7 sources	0.45	mostly wrong
-1	WATCH: Trump says tariffs could replace income tax \| 2026 State of the Union PBS NewsHour Show claimsNovel (0)Right (0)Wrong (3)Partly (2)Untestable (0)All (5) Trade partners will keep their tariff deals despite the Supreme Court ruling [2026] Leans partly right “almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made” only this source There has been no inflation under the current administration [2025] Almost certainly wrong “There was no inflation, tremendous growth” 1 of 2 sources Economists' warnings that tariffs would tank the economy proved wrong [2025] Leans partly right “Donald Trump called the economy correctly and 22 Nobel Prize winners in economics didn't. They got a totally wrong.” 1 of 2 sources Tariffs could replace the federal income tax Leans wrong “the tariffs paid by foreign countries will, like in the past, substantially replaced the modern day system of income tax” 1 of 2 sources Foreign exporters absorb most of the cost of US import tariffs Very likely wrong “Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars” 1 of 4 sources	0.38	mostly wrong
-1	Trump says 'we don't have inflation' as prices continue to rise 13WHAM ABC News Show claimsNovel (0)Right (2)Wrong (4)Partly (0)Untestable (0)All (6) The US currently has no inflation [September 2026] Almost certainly wrong “BUT WE DON'T HAVE INFLATION” only this source High diesel prices are caused by Democratic environmental regulations Probably wrong “WHY HAS IT GONE UP? BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS HAVE NOT.” only this source Tariffs make the country that imposes them wealthier Leans wrong “YOU KNOW WHAT? THEY CAUSE WEALTH.” 1 of 4 sources Rising diesel prices raise the cost of most other goods Leans right “EVERYTHING YOU EAT, CONSUME, WEAR IS DELIVERED WITH A DIESEL POWERED VEHICLE.” 1 of 4 sources Tariffs do not raise consumer prices Very likely wrong “TARIFFS DON'T CAUSE INFLATION.” 1 of 7 sources Inflation is higher now than when the administration took office [October 2026] Almost certainly right “INFLATION IS NOW AT 3.7% COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO, UP NEARLY 1% SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP TOOK OFFICE.” 1 of 7 sources	0.26	mostly wrong
-1	President Trump Holds Press Gaggle Before Flight to Kalispell, Montana Rally - 10/14/26 Right Side Broadcasting Network Show claimsNovel (0)Right (0)Wrong (3)Partly (0)Untestable (1)All (4) Inflation over the most recent three months has run below the Fed's two percent target [October 2026] Very likely wrong “we're at 1.7% inflation for the last three months” only this source Energy prices will fall rapidly once the Iran war ends [October 2026] Unknown “Iran will end very shortly. It's going to be over very shortly. And your energy prices will fall very rapidly, very fast.” only this source Oil is cheaper now than it was under the previous administration [October 2026] Almost certainly wrong “Oil was higher under Biden than it is under Trump.” only this source The previous administration presided over the worst inflation in US history Leans wrong “We inherited a terrible inflation from Biden, the worst in the history of our country.” 1 of 2 sources	0.00	mostly wrong

Inflation, gas and tariffs in 2026: the claims against the data.

Recap

How high is inflation?

What is driving it?

Is gas cheaper than under Biden?

Do tariffs raise prices?

The Iran war and energy

Is the economy booming?

Five most worth your time

Judged wrong

Contested

All claims

Videos and posts

What the studies changed

Verdict changed by a study (21)